Archives
Let’s get this out of the way: I’m addicted to the NFL Draft. More so than the actual NFL season. Why haven’t I written in awhile? The draft is over. So what now? How about looking at the 2011 NFL Draft?
I bet there are some people out there who are like me: College football takes a major backseat to the NFL. Like, third row middle seat in a Suburban to the NFL in the drivers seat. You pay most of your attention to college football between the Super Bowl and the NFL Draft.
Well with the training camp so close, it’s time to look at where the holes that the Packers will be trying to fill next offseason will be. I’ll take a look at a potential position of need, who needs to perform well at that position, and who may be taking their place come next April.
Cornerback
Player(s) on the Hot Seat: Tramon Williams, Pat Lee, Brandon Underwood.
On April 22 of this year, Ted Thompson decided that the cornerback position in Green Bay was not much of a need, not drafting a single corner. He apparently had enough faith in these three young players’ ability to replace the 34 year old reigning DPoY Charles Woodson, and the injured Al Harris.
Williams has shown he can at least be one of the guys, filling in admirably for Harris after the Tampa Bay game. But that leaves the future other corner spot and the nickel slot to be filled.
Lee, a 2008 second round pick, has shown promise of developing into a solid player, but played only five games in mostly special teams last year before being placed on injured reserve.
Underwood was a sixth round pick last year, but also showed some potential. He has been labeled a distraction, especially after the Wisconsin Dells prositiution scandal this offseason, but the talent is there.
If any of these players falter, look for a strong 2011 cornerback class to come in.
College Prospects to Watch:
Ras-I Dowling: A 6’2″ corner out of Virginia best projects as a zone corner in the NFL. He has the aggressiveness to make tackles behind the line of scrimmage or take on a block, and the straight-line speed to match most WRs. 1st round pick.
Davon House: A small-school prospect to consider, his stock could soar this year much like Kyle Wilson did playing for New Mexico State. Has good size (6′, 178) and speed (4.44 second 40 yard dash). 2-3 round.
Chykie Brown: Will get lost behind top 40-prospects Aaron Williams and Curtis Brown at Texas, but is as physically gifted as either of those two. Mentality needs work, but playing for Dom Capers and learning from Woodson and Harris will do him wonders. 4-5 round.
Offensive Tackle
Player on the Hot Seat: Bryan Bulaga
This position isn’t so much as who needs to play well, it’s where will Bulaga play? Is he a LT? Will hsi short arms restrict him to RT? Will he end up at LG like former Iowa standout lineman Robert Gallery? This season will tell. Whatever happens, the Pack need another lineman.
College Prospects to Watch:
LT: Nate Potter: Athletic player for Boise State who’s started every game since signing there. could use some more bulk, with “only” 296 lbs on his 6’6″ frame. 1st round pick.
LT: Anthony Costanzo: Could also use some bulking up at Boston College at 6’7″ 295. If he maintains his athleticism, he’ll also require a 1st round pick.
LT: Nate Solder: a 6’9″ 305 giant who runs the 40 yard dash in 4.84 seconds, has perhaps the most athleticsm of any tackle on the board. However his technique could use some work, making him a 3rd round pick. Improvements in technique could elevate him to an early 2nd rounder.
RT: Matt Reynolds: Projecting as a pure RT in the NFL, Reynolds weighs in a bit bigger than the first three prospects at 6’6″, 325. Would be a great heir to Tauscher. Could get him in round 3 because of inability to play LT.
RT: Kyle Hix: has started 40 games in the college career for Texas, the last 28 of them at RT. Mauler in the run game at 6’7″ 325. 4-5 round.
Outside Linebacker
Player on the Hot Seat: Brad Jones
Jones possibly has the hottest seat on this list. While he was productive in his few starts, he needs to show explosiveness and playmaking ability that had fans screaming for Jerry Hughes this April. If he can emerge as an 8-10 sack guy who can drop into coverage opposite Matthews, he could eliminate this position as a need completely.
College Prospects to Watch
Von Miller: The NCAA Leader in sacks last year with 16.5, Miller brings an explosive first step and elite speed to the table. Already is appearing in mock drafts to the Packers. Broke up 5 passes last year for Texas A&M, so he can even drop into coverage. Compares to Elvis Dumervil. 1st round pick.
Dontay Moch: If you want speed, look no further. This Nevada product used his sub 4.4 speed to rack up 20 TFL last year and was an All-WAC First Team choice last year. Lack of elite competition drops his grade to a 3-4 rounder.
3rd Down Back
Player on the Hot Seat: Brandon Jackson
The Packers remain one of the only teams still using a primary running back. While Ryan Grant is a solid option, being pretty much a lock for 1200 yards and 8 TDs with few to no fumbles, it seems to be working so far. However, both Super Bowl teams this year ran a 2 back system, and it seems to be a key to success.
Jackson has emerged as a great blocking back to protect Aaron Rodgers, but has been less impressive when asked to actually do something with the ball. If he shows he was worth a 2nd roun dpick and can be a solid recieving option out of the backfield as well as being able to run a bit, he will, like Jones above, eliminate this as a position of need.
College Prospects to Watch:
Noel Devine: My favorite player on the list, I think Devine would be the perfect fit in the Packers pass-first offense. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry and 8.2 yards per catch. His 5’8″ frame has some scouts saying don’t even look at the guy before the third round, and others are saying that his skills make him a borderline first rounder. His size is less of a concern when you consider that he benches 435 lbs and his three-drill total weight is 1,235 lbs . He ran for over 1400 yards with 13 TDs last year.
He’s got a chance to run a 4.2 at the combine, which would lock him into the first two rounds. If he falls to the Packers in round 2, taking him would really open up the offense, as well as ignite the struggling return game.
DeMarco Murray: If Thompson decides Devine’s size is too much of a risk, the Oklahoma product’s 6’1″, 214 frame would do the trick. Murray ran a 4.42 at Texas’ winter workouts in 2007, so he’s got speed to burn as well. While he only averaged 4.1 YPC last year on 171 carries, he also caught 41 passes for 522 yards (12.7 YPC) and 4 TDs. 2nd round pick.
Brandon Batch: Dual threat RB who rushed for 5.3 YPC last year but also brought in 57 passes at Texas Tech. Solid frame at 5’11″, 205 lbs.
Wide Reciever
Player(s) on the Hot Seat: James Jones and Jordy Nelson
With Donald Driver getting up there in years, it’s time to find out who the third option in the passing attack is going to be, behind Jennings and Finley. Either of these guys could take the spot and run with it, as they have the talent but it hasn’t translated into production. If neither improve, the Pack could be looking at a WR in the next draft, preferably one with size to complement Jennings, Jones, and Nelsons smaller figures.
College Prospects to Watch
Jonathan Baldwin: Baldwin has been described as a taller, faster second coming of former Pittsburgh Panther Larry Fitgerald. At 6’5″, 225 lbs Baldwin has the size to be the next Vincent Jackson and a real threat in the Packers offense. While he most likely won’t make it this far, if he does drop, the things he would do for this offense would make him the perfect BPA pick for Ted Thompson. 1st round pick.
DeAndre Brown: This Southern Miss junior brings similar size (6’6″, 228) that Baldwin does, and similar speed (4.48 to Baldwin’s 4.50). Coming off of a broken leg last winter (check this out) he racked up 47 receptions for 785 yards and 9 scores. Lack of elite competition drops him to a 4-5 round projection, where he’d be a major steal.
First Green Bay Packer Mock Draft
Round 1: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
Round 2: Noel Devine, RB, West Virginia
Round 3: Nate Solder, LT, Colorado
Round 4: Chykie Brown, CB, Texas
Round 5: DeAndre Brown, WR, Southern Miss
OR
Round 1: Jonothan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
Round 2: Devon House, CB, New Mexico State
Round 3: Matt Reynolds, RT, BYU
Round 4: Dontay Moch, OLB, Nevada
Round 5: Brandon Batch, RB, Texas Tech
What do you think the Packers biggest need will be going into next offseason?
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
Gearing up for the 2010 Season in Many Ways
Most of the sports stores in Texas display the stuff from the Texas teams. Some friends finally found a store that had all types of Oakland Raiders gear.
All I can say is that it is time to shop, because the regular season is so near.
It is time to gear up in many ways to get ready for the 2010 regular season.
Next, a good sports bar with lots of big screens was identified. And, while reading the menu we saw “fried pickles” and all types of tasty dishes.
The game between the Cleveland Browns and the Green Bay Packers was in full view on the screens in the sports restaurant.
There May Be More Patterns
Having done a so-called “stamina” study of the Oakland Raiders and the Denver Broncos, it was time to do pattern recognition for the Browns and Green Bay. The temptation to make connections was rising up in the spirit of this researcher.
Once a good model is developed and tested, this researcher and other colleagues like Dr. Rod just might be onto something in discovering new ways of looking at the NFL data.
Here is the data similar to the article published on yesterday. Are there correlations? If not, all it means if that the model needs to be tweaked, revised, extended, and so forth.
The model is descriptive.
Yes, there is an awareness of probabilities and stochastic processes, but that type of stuff can be added later after collaboration with some other sports enthusiasts.
Testing the Model on Other Teams
The search to characterize what is happening on the field is an ongoing process, and lazy thinkers cannot endure the task and challenge. The chart below is for the last four games of the seasons from 2005 to 2009.
Green Bay
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005
5 0 5 5 5
0 0 5 5 0
5 0 0 5 0
5 5 5 5 5
===========================
15 5 15 20 10 65
Cleveland Browns
5 0 5 0 0
5 0 5 0 5
5 0 0 0 0
5 0 5 0 5
==========================
20 0 15 0 10 45
Now during the game between the Cleveland Browns and the Green Bay Packers, it was evident that the teams were going back and forth, leading and lagging.
A Very Brief Summary Near the End of Game
At 14:29 in one quarter the score was 14-14.
At 9:21 in one quarter the score was 21-21
The process and pattern was somewhat like this:
Cleveland ahead, Green Bay caught up.
Cleveland ahead, again, Green Bay caught up, again.
Green Bay ahead, then Cleveland caught up.
Field goal during the last few minutes gave Cleveland the victory.
Now would this model have given any indication of the almost evenly matched Cleveland Browns and Green Bay Packers during today’s football battle.
Maybe? Here is the pattern that shows up:
First assign the value five to a win; and zero to a loss.
During the past three years, from 2007 to 2009, the sequence for the Green Bay Packers is 15, 5, 15. This means that during the last four games of 2009, 2008 and 2007, the Green Bay Packers had three wins, one win, and then three wins in 2009.
During that same three years, from 2007 to 2009, the sequence for the Cleveland Browns is 20 (2009), 0 (2008), 15 (2007). Both of these sets of numbers are in reference to the last four games of the indicated seasons.
Note that the totals are the same, a tie.
15 + 5 + 15 = 35
And,
20 + 0 + 15 = 35.
Also note that the Browns were very intense and had excellent stamina during the last four games of 2009. Green Bay, on the other hand, fell short, a little bit.
In 2008, when you compare the Browns with the Packers, you can see that the Packers only won one game of the last four games of 2008. They increased in 2009, and won three out of four games, focusing only on the last four games of 2009.
And yet there is evidence of great intensity and transformed behaviors of the Cleveland Browns from 2008 to 2009. The Browns went from four losses to four wins when you look at the last four games of 2008 and 2009.
It looks like that same type of intensity and stamina was demonstrated in the preseason game on Aug. 18, 2010.
During the last few minutes, the Browns mustered up the wit and energy to get close enough to the endzone for their kicker to get a successful field goal and break the tie.
Let’s just say that this model and type of analysis is being field tested and piloted, among other strategies of studying the patterns, trends and performance of NFL teams.
Will this type of thinking make a difference? Who knows?
When, however, the Browns are compared with the Raiders certain biases enter the analysis. Nevertheless, after gearing up with the Raider t-shirt, cap, pencils, mugs and more, the Raider Nation is ready for the Oakland Raiders to have a showdown, throw down the gauntlet, and make some touchdowns.
The Stamina Was Demonstrated on Aug 12
Even if those touchdowns or field goals are made during the last few minutes of the fourth quarter as was done in the Raiders-Dallas game, to the Raider Nation it means that the intensity and stamina of the Oakland Raiders have returned.
Commitment to Excellence, Continuing to study NFL teams
And, we have got to do more self-studies, studies of the Raiders’ opponents, and get ready for a showdown, throw-down, and more touchdowns.
Some may wonder why the Raider Nation has begun to study. Well, just say that we learned this from Al Davis. Many of us are aware of the fact that Davis studied his opponents, and studied military strategies, too. So, we are learning to do what our leader Davis did to build his career in his prime.
Go Raiders!
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
There was a time when Ricky Williams was considered the NFL’s premier disappointment, twice actually.
Mike Ditka handed over an entire draft for Williams’ services. For the New Orleans Saints, their new running back ended up being a reclusive underperformer. When the team picked him out of Texas in 1999, it was naturally assumed they had someone who was serious about football and who had 400 carry, 2,000 yard seasons in him.
They assumed they had a workhorse. But if there’s one thing Ricky Williams is, it’s his own man, and nobody’s to be pigeonholed. In New Orleans he flashed promise, but ultimately didn’t deliver.
So Williams was packaged for a series of Miami Dolphins draft picks, and began life anew in South Beach. The initial outlook was favorable.
Arguably, his high tide came in 2002, rushing for over 1,800 yards and 16 touchdowns. That was just his first season with Miami. There was no telling what kind of production the team could expect moving forward.
But you know the story. He got hurt. He smoked a lot of marijuana. He retired. He played in the CFL. It was the second time he employed a scorched earth policy on a team that had hedged its future on his motivation.
Now it’s 2010. Williams has inserted himself back into the Dolphins’ good books (or at least stayed off the bad ones). The team has massaged him into a running game that ranks among the league’s best, and Williams is poised to do big things.
Selected in front of Williams in 1999 was Edgerrin James. James was the consummate professional Indianapolis expected when they drafted him in front of Williams. He played hard and produced immediately.
Where is he now? Stuck on the NFL’s scrap heap. James is burnt out and been tossed aside. This raises the question: How is Ricky Williams still playing?
At 33, Williams is still a running back under NFL employ, which is a rarity in this era. His preservation is due to his own machinations, whether planned or not. Williams’ retirement and subsequent odyssey was the Ziploc baggie that has kept him fresh into the new decade.
James had 3,028 rushing attempts in his ten seasons. Williams has only 2,164. The numbers point to Williams’ relative youth.
Another running back in danger of flameout is LaDanian Tomlinson. For years, LDT set the pace for the San Diego Chargers. He was there everything, for lack of a better word. Now? He’s a fringe back who will fight for playing time with the New York Jets. And he’s two years younger than Williams is right now. Tomlinson has 2,880 rushing attempts in his career. Who would you rather draft for your fantasy team?
Williams is also fortunate enough to be behind one of the most potent offensive lines the Dolphins have had in recent years. There’s some transitioning going on between the tackles, but the team just completed a season that saw them rush for a cumulative 2,231 yards.
With Jake Long and Vernon Carey leading the way, the Dolphins are grinders, to Williams’ benefit. The offensive line is among the league’s strongest when it comes to moving the ball (the second-highest power ranking on Football Outsiders). They’ll keep Williams from absorbing more punishment than absolutely necessary.
Another factor increasing Williams’ value is Ronnie Brown’s mercurial career. The sixth-year man from Auburn has only one thousand yard season to his credit, and last season’s injury was exacerbated by his offseason DUI. Though it’s irrelevant to his health issues, the optics of the situation make Williams appear to have the inside track on the number one spot.
Then there’s Miami’s shiniest acquisition, Brandon Marshall. With him in the fold, Miami will look to pass more to justify their investment. Chad Henne is growing up quick, and his new target will insure that he’ll have a home for wayward passes. Not only does this keep Williams’ legs fresh, but it adds an element of unexpectedness that only the Wildcat really provided last season.
Finally, most of the credit for Williams’ effectiveness this late in the game is himself. If he’s lost a step, it’s a small one, because last season’s production equalled anything he did six years ago. Though the sheer numbers aren’t present, the ones he does put up are economical and exactly what the team needs from him. He’s also the only back since Emmit Smith, Walter Payton, and OJ Anderson to have a thousand yard rushing season after turning 32.
Now he wants to stay in Miami another season. The NFL’s mores would normally have Williams left wanting, but there’s nothing really normal about Ricky Williams. That we’re even having this discussion is baffling.
But considering the long, strange trip it’s been, isn’t their room for another season of Ricky?
More good stuff @ http://scrawnfootball.blogspot.com/
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
At various times this offseason, Minnesota Vikings Head Coach Brad Childress has tried to be stern with his team.
Like any NFL coach, Childress is trying to keep control over his guys and show none are bigger than the team. With so many egos in the NFL, keeping your locker room in check is a must.
He called out Adrian Peterson for missing OTAs after the star running back’s hometown of Palestine, Texas, dedicated “Adrian Peterson Day” to him.
Next, Vikings’ management threatened to take away Percy Harvin’s roster spot after bereaving for his late grandmother and suffering from migraines. If Harvin hadn’t responded to their letter in five days, his roster spot would have been taken.
But when it comes to Brett Favre, the Vikings go from authoritative to meek and desperate.
The last two offseasons, Favre has played with the Childress and the Vikings, causing them to grovel back to the star quarterback in the middle of training camp. The last two Augusts, Favre has looked like a young child who takes advantage of his far too lenient parents to get what he wants.
And that can’t make Harvin, Peterson, and the rest of the Vikings happy.
First of all, Harvin and Peterson aren’t exactly scrubs for Minnesota. Peterson is arguably the league’s best running back, while Harvin is a top young receiver. By playing dictator with these two while going easy on Favre, Childress could alienate his locker room.
If Childress wanted to perpetuate the image of a strong head coach, he shouldn’t have let Favre wait so long to make a decision. He should have given him a deadline and made Tarvaris Jackson his official starter if Favre didn’t meet it.
Instead, he fell into Favre’s temptation for the second straight year and looks like a fool among his players and the public.
As Tedy Bruschi said on an edition of NFL Live late yesterday afternoon, “This would not happen in New England because they have a head coach that knows how to handle things like this.”
Plus, Viking players themselves gave into Favre’s tactics, flying to Hattiesberg, Mississippi, to try to woo Favre back like a desperate high school student in need of prom date. I know Jackson is an unproven starting quarterback, but is he that bad that three of the team’s stars need to go beg Favre to come back?
Many may say that it doesn’t matter in the end. The Vikings are supremely talented and possibly go farther than their NFC Championship birth last season. With Favre back, the offense is much more multi-dimensional and dangerous.
But at the heart of the matter, Childress and Vikings’ management have embarrassed themselves. They’ve allowed one man to control them for two straight offseasons.
In the end, Childress may have lost the respect of his team. Yes, having Favre back bolsters the offense substantially, but was it worth a possible rift in the locker room and the creation of a dangerous double standard?
Only time will tell, but the Vikings’ head coach has managed to make himself look like a fool for the second straight year.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
The Baltimore Ravens took Sergio Kindle in the second round of this year’s NFL draft. The Texas Longhorns linebacker had been projected by some as a first round pick, but fell to the second round due to some concern over knee injuries.
On draft day, the Ravens were excited upon landing Kindle. Ray Lewis was on hand at the draft and had this to say about Kindle, “I just think he’s a great kid. I told him that when I got ready to call his name at the draft. I watched him in college. I like his fire, the way he plays the game.”
Lewis also seemed to volunteer to mentor Kindle, “…whatever you need off the field, then let’s figure it out. Let’s stay after late if we’ve got to stay after. Come over to my house. Whatever we’ve got to do, we’ll figure it out.”
Everything seemed to be going right with Kindle and the Ravens until he fell down two flights of stairs while in Austin. The fall resulted in a fractured skull for Kindle.
After the fall and the injury, concerns moved from getting Kindle signed to a contract to making sure Kindle would recover from his injury.
Kindle is currently rehabbing in Dallas.
It is no secret by now that Kindle suffers from narcolepsy. This was revealed by one of his former college coaches. Kindle has been on medication for narcolepsy and the Ravens knew about his condition prior to drafting him.
It is also no secret that Kindle had some issues in college with alcohol. He was arrested as a sophomore for driving under the influence. Kindle served a three-game suspension as a result of the arrest.
Neither narcolepsy nor alcohol has been named as contributing factors in Kindle’s fall.
The Ravens are now in a quandary, what do they do from a business/football needs standpoint with Sergio Kindle?
Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti offered the following, “I think in a perfect world, we’d like to have a decision come mid-September whether we think we he’s going to be able to contribute to us and we can put him on the (physically unable to perform) list. Then we’d have the option of having him for ten games. If that doesn’t look feasible, he’s going to be around here for a long time, so we’ll wait it out.”
Bisciotti also stated, “Concussions are a bad thing, so you can imagine what a fractured skull is. If we have to put him on the IR (injured reserve) and let him rest for a year, then we’re going to do it.
The owner’s comments seem to indicate that the team will take care of Kindle, but they are also vague enough to bring some questions into the Kindle/Ravens relationship.
Bisciotti’s comments seem predicated on the fact that Kindle will be cleared to play in the NFL. If Kindle does not get cleared to play, what will happen then? This part of the Sergio Kindle story bears some watching.
Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome has been in contact with the NFL Management Council about how they can proceed in this situation. It is rare that a drafted player would lose their slotted value if they were injured prior to signing.
From a business standpoint the Ravens must sit and wait on Kindle. To sign a player that may never play a game for you is a terrible business decision.
However, the Ravens have been a team that has been known to take care of their own. The team has been seen as decent in their dealings with their fans and players. Do they want to take the PR hit of being seen as cold and uncaring for an injured player? This is the question that Bisciotti and Newsome must ask themselves.
It appears that Kindle does have insurance that will see him receive a settlement if he suffers from a career-ending injury. If the fractured skull was the result of negligence on his part or from a pre-existing condition, Kindle’s insurance claim may end up being denied.
In the end, it seems as if the Sergio Kindle saga will continue for quite some time.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
