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Nov 11th, 2010 | Filed under NFL, Rankings/List

Q:  How did Travis Bright perform against the Raiders?   Did his run blocking get any better?  How about his pass blocking?  For the strongest guy on the team, he wasn’t explosive against the Bengals.

Dusty McGuire

A: Bright struggled quite a bit against Oakland.  I credited him with giving up a sack, and he was dominated on a few other plays.  He was also over-matched in the run game.  Overall, I gave him a “D” for the game.

Bright’s struggles forced me to leave him off of my latest 53-man roster projection.  Instead, I opted for Phil Costa, whose versatility could be an asset to a Dallas team without a true backup center.  Kyle Kosier was the backup center before he went down with an MCL sprain, but even he never took a snap at the position in his career.

Q:  Who are some sleepers who could make the roster or players who are expected to make it but might not?

Kerry Delmas, Plano, TX

A: There are actually quite a few roster spots up for grabs.  I don’t know how many players are “sleepers” per se, but a few unheralded guys I expect to make the team are supplemental seventh-round nose tackle Jose Brent, cornerback Bryan McCann, tight end Scott Sicko, and guard Phil Costa.

Brent is a high-energy player who reminds me of Jay Ratliff.  I have personally guaranteed he earns a roster spot.  McCann is another one of my favorite players.  Behind the “big three” cornerbacks, he has the best cover skills.  Sicko is almost a necessity after John Phillips season-ending ACL tear, and like I said above, Costa has a great opportunity after Kosier’s injury.

There are also a few players I am not projecting to make the roster, yet still could sneak in with good play over the final three preseason games.  These would be fullback Chris Gronkowski, wide receiver Jesse Holley, safety Danny McCray, and cornerback Teddy Williams.

Gronkowski’s versatility is his biggest asset, although I’m not sure the Cowboys can retain fullback Deon Anderson, Sicko, and him.  Two fullbacks and three tight ends on a pass-first team would be strange.  Holley has been great on special teams and could take Sam Hurd’s roster spot.  I haven’t been as high on McCray as others, but he’s performed well in practice.  Finally, it will be tough for the Cowboys to part ways with the freaky athleticism, speed, and upside of Williams.

As far as big-time “surprise” cuts, don’t expect too many.  However, you could see wide receiver Kevin Ogletree, wide receiver Sam Hurd, safety Michael Hamlin, inside linebacker Jason Williams, and up to three draft picks not make the squad.

Ogletree has looked terrible over the first two preseason games, although he has apparently turned up the intensity as of late.  If the Cowboys deem Holley ready for prime time, Hurd and his $1.75 million salary will walk.  Hamlin is very unlikely to get released, but he hasn’t shown much in the first two preseason games and there are talented rookies (McCray and Barry Church) breathing down his neck.  Jason Williams looked better in the second preseason game, but the Cowboys may opt to keep another Williams–Leon–over him.  Finally, don’t be surprised to see cornerback Jamar Wall, defensive tackle Sean Lissemore, and right tackle Sam Young not make the team, although Young has the best shot.

Q:  Do you think we will see more screen passes from the Cowboys this season?

Mark Owens, Jacksonville, FL

A: Yes I do, and for a few reasons.  First, the offensive line is obviously a bit suspect right now.  Left guard Kyle Kosier is already going to be out for the first couple of regular season games.  The unit does have the potential to play well, but they also have the potential to implode.  Screen passes are a great way to compensate for a struggling line.

Further, the Cowboys will try to get running back Felix Jones in the open field as much as possible.  While he has yet to show he is a totally natural pass-catcher, screen passes could be an effective way to get him the ball in a non-traditional way, if he can handle it.

The Cowboys also like to run screens to their wide receivers, and with great run-after-catch receivers like Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, why not?  You could see even more smoke, bubble, and quick screens this season to combat the blitz, particularly against teams like the Eagles.

The key for Dallas will be being unpredictable in their usage of screen passes.  Last season, the rate of screens more than tripled following playaction passes.  If the Cowboys can utilize them in the right situations, such as when they anticipate a blitz or a heavy pass rush, screens could become an effective tool in their offensive arsenal.

Q:  How do you come up with your overall player grades for each game?

Jonathan Bales (I just wanted to answer this question)

A: Well self, the overall grades (as seen here) are a combination of grades from different components of each position.  For example, I give linemen a run blocking grade and a pass blocking grade.  Because the Cowboys pass 60 percent of the time, I have decided to weight the pass protection 1.5 times as much as the run blocking grade (to represent the 3:2 pass-to-run ratio).  I do a similar thing for each position, and the methodology is basically the same as that which I use for my yearly grades.

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I don’t know about you but I’ve lost track of what is the new black this year. Maybe black is the new black. Wouldn’t that be refreshing?

But switching from fashion to football, I’m wondering whether there might be some hope for Buffalo Bills fans in the story of a quarterback with the same first name as the first name of the Bills’ putative first-team quarterback.

Bills fans and pretty much everyone else who pays attention to the NFL have been underwhelmed by Trent Edwards performance over the past few years, after he failed to live up to the rookie season hype.

The same people (myself included) have been even more puzzled than disappointed or disgruntled with the Bills choice to pass on two or three potential franchise quarterbacks in the draft, as well as several who were available as free agents.

They left Jimmy, Colt, and Sam on the board while drafting yet another running back (although the early injuries to Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch makes that decision look better every day—lucky, if not smart). They ignored Jim Kelly’s advice on Tim Tebow, too.

They made no attempt to pursue Donovan McNabb or Michael Vick or any other veteran quarterbacks who might have been better than what some have called the “three stooges” (Edwards, Fitzpatrick, and Brohm).

Instead, new general manager Buddy Nix and his choice for head coach, Chan Gailey, (neither of whom were on anyone’s long list for possible GM’s or head coaches in Buffalo with such an impressive class of unemployed coaches available who had their own Super Bowl rings) have been suggesting and implying that Gailey has a knack for developing mediocre quarterbacks into serviceable ones.

Well, what if they’re right? Has anyone considered that? Why not give them a chance to make good on that proposition? After all, you don’t have to have a Brett Favre or Tom Brady or Peyton Manning to win a Super Bowl. You don’t even need a Drew Brees.

Remember Trent Dilfer? Consider him the worst quarterback ever to win two consecutive Super Bowls for two different teams.

He did it first in Tampa Bay in 1999. After winning for them, they fired him. Sure, he won it for them once, but couldn’t possibly take them back again.

So he signed with Baltimore and did it again for them in 2000.

Before he did it, no one would have predicted it. Dilfer had been relegated to permanent second tier status by the pundits and most fans. Obviously there was more to him than the average educated fan (or coach or GM) would have guessed. It was as much an intangible as it was talent. 

So, if the rumors are true about Chan Gailey, that his forte is to help Trent Dilfers unleash their inner Brett Favres, then it is possible Trent Edwards could be the new Trent Dilfer.

It’s possible, and I’m going to believe it until proven otherwise. 

My fall-back position: Brian Brohm is the new, the new, the new….       

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Aug 18th, 2010 | Filed under Buffalo Bills, NFL, Opinion, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Trent Edwards

The NFL fantasy football sleepers certainly have serious ramifications for sports bettors. However, the main reason that professional gamblers are coming off a remarkable opening week of sports picks is the availability of the preseason primer.

Here is the Week 2 NFL initial look for sports bettors.

Thursday, August 19

Colts vs. Bills

Bill RB Fred Jackson is out. He rushed for 1,062 yards last year, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Marshawn Lynch, who split time as starter, is also out. This means that rookie C.J. Spiller will be rushed into more playing time. He carried four times for just 16 yards in the NFX opener.

After Spiller, it’s Chad Simpson, who played sparingly for the Colts. In 25 games in his NFL career, he has 30 carries for 147 yards. Behind him is a rookie free agent, Joique Bell.

Saturday, August 21

NY Giants-Steelers

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger will play and may start. As usual Head Coach Mike Tomlin was glib when asked about his playing time.

Raiders vs. Bears

NFL preseason odds players will want to note that as bad as Chicago’s starting QB Jay Cutler is, it gets worse behind him. Potential backup Todd Collins rejected a contract offer, Caleb Harris is out and rookie Dan LeFevour not ready for significant role.

Dolphins vs. Jaguars

Dolphins OG Nate Garner is out. He started eight games last year and was projected to be the backup at RT.

Lions vs. Broncos

Detroit will be without LB Jordan Dizon for the season. Versatile and projected as a key backup, he started the first preseason game. He was a top-notch special teams player.

Cowboys vs. Chargers

Dallas starting RT Marc Colombo is out. Alex Barron is also out meaning youngsters Robert Brewster and Sam Young are the fill-ins. Dallas top pick WR Dez Bryant is out.

Jets vs. Panthers

Though Carolina WR Steve Smith is back practicing, he won’t play.

Monday, August 23

Cardinals vs. Titans

Arizona superstar receiver Larry Fitzgerald is out. Of course they lost No. 2 WR Anquan Boldin in the offseason and starting QB Kurt Warner retired. This makes Steve Breaston the No. 1 receiver and Early Doucet, the No. 2.

For more information: Preseason week two picks from the world’s best handicappers are on the OffshoreInsiders.com Network.

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Aug 17th, 2010 | Filed under Fantasy, NFL

With two preseason games in the books, we’ve actually already learned a fair amount about the Cowboys. In both the Bengals game and the Raiders game the Cowboys showed us glimpses of what this coming season could be like.

There have been some great stories, such as the emergence of cornerback Bryan McCann (who I predicted would make the team months ago) and linebacker Leon Williams (who I completely missed on). 

On the other hand, the ‘Boys now know they could be slightly thin at tight end after John Phillips went down with a season-ending ACL tear.  Other players may not be injured, but their poor starts are surprising (Kevin Ogletree and Robert Brewster, for example).

When I altered my last 53-man roster projection to create the one you see below, the key was to not overreact to the Cowboys’ first two games. There are three to go, which may be a blessing in disguise for a Dallas team that has a lot to sort out on the back end of its roster.

 

Offense

QB
1. Tony Romo
2. Jon Kitna
3. Stephen McGee

This is a no-brainer.  Barring a devastating injury, Romo, Kitna, and McGee will be your Dallas Cowboys quarterbacks in 2010. 

Didn’t make the cut: Fourth-stringer Matt Nichols could be stashed on the practice squad.

Overall Position Grade: A-

 

RB
1. Felix Jones
2. Marion Barber
3. Tashard Choice

I have Jones listed on top due to projected touch distribution, not his starting status (or lack thereof). He is too talented for the Cowboys to not feed him the ball early and often. 

Perhaps a running back rotation like this is just what the ‘Boys need.

Altogether, this may be the top running back trio in the NFL. Check out my grades for their 2009 play.

Didn’t make the cut: Herb Donaldson has shown little explosion in preseason, and undrafted free agent Lonyae Miller has been just average.

Overall Position Grade:  A-

 

FB
1. Deon Anderson

I’ve explained the importance of Anderson ad nauseam. He even showed some pass-catching ability against the Raiders (don’t expect much more of that).

Didn’t make the cut: Chris Gronkowski has shown he can be a threat in the passing game, although his blocking is nowhere near the level of Anderson.  He could make the team as a H-Back-type player, even if Anderson is retained.

Overall Position Grade: B-

 

TE
1. Jason Witten
2. Martellus Bennett
3. Scott Sicko

I just couldn’t see Sicko making the team before Phillips was injured. Even with a projected increase in three-receiver sets this season, the Cowboys run enough two and three-tight end formations that Sicko’s presence is now needed.

Didn’t make the cut: DajLeon Farr did a commendable job in making no obvious mental errors against the Raiders, despite being signed just two days prior.  Still, he’s a long shot.

Overall Position Grade: B+

 

WR
1. Miles Austin
2. Roy Williams
3. Dez Bryant
4. Patrick Crayton
5. Kevin Ogletree
6. Sam Hurd

Will the Cowboys keep five receivers or six?  Their decision has a rather large impact on a number of other positions.  I think the possible shift in offensive philosophy means six is the number. 

Didn’t make the cut: Jesse Holley has a really great shot at unseating Hurd, especially since Hurd is due $1.75 million—quite a bit of money for a special teams player.  In the end, I think Hurd gets one more shot.

Overall Position Grade: A-

 

OT
1. Doug Free
2. Marc Colombo
3. Alex Barron
4. Sam Young

The play of this group will be crucial to the Cowboys’ 2010 fortunes. 

Free has looked pretty comfortable at left tackle, but Colombo struggled at right tackle before recently going down with a knee injury. His two-four week absence could force the Cowboys to keep an extra tackle on the roster. 

If so, it will probably be Robert Brewster. Let’s play this one by ear.

Didn’t make the cut:  Like I said, Brewster could make the team by default, though his preseason play has certainly not justified it.

Overall Position Grade: C-

 

G
1. Kyle Kosier
2. Leonard Davis
3. Montrae Holland
4. Phil Costa

I substituted Costa for Travis Bright because Bright has really struggled in the preseason and Costa’s versatility (he can play center) is valuable. 

Yeah, the Cowboys plan to work Kosier in behind Gurode, but the guy hasn’t taken a snap (or given one, actually) from the position in his entire career. 

A Gurode injury would also force the Cowboys to make two alterations to the offensive line–one at center and one at left guard–and I doubt they want to do that.

Didn’t make the cut: Bright has struggled too much in the first two preseason games for me to justify leaving him on the roster. 

Don’t count out the possibility of the Cowboys moving Brewster to guard, but his lack of experience there would be quite a risky proposition.

Overall Position Grade: B-

 

C
1. Andre Gurode

The Cowboys don’t even have another true center on the roster.

Didn’t make the cut:  Kosier, Costa, and even Bright could all get a look at center in the preseason.

Overall Position Grade: B (due to lack of depth)

 

Defense

NT
1. Jay Ratliff
2. Junior Siavii
3. Josh Brent

Surprised at three nose tackles? Don’t be. 

Brent has shown enough potential that the Cowboys will not be able to put him on their practice squad. In fact, I’ve gone as far as to guarantee he makes the 53-man roster.

However, the Cowboys probably don’t want a supplemental seventh-rounder being the primary backup to Ratliff, so Siavii will likely make the team. He’s shown enough (in the run game, anyway) this preseason to justify his stay.

Also, don’t forget Brent could be used at defensive end. In reality, that’s where this “extra” roster spot has come.

Didn’t make the cut: Sean Lissemore, the Cowboys seventh-round pick in the April draft, has just been injured too long to make an impact.  His versatility surely intrigues the Cowboys (he can also play defensive end), but his path became a lot more difficult once the Cowboys acquired Brent.

Overall Position Grade: B

 

DE
1. Marcus Spears
2. Igor Olshansky
3. Stephen Bowen
4. Jason Hatcher

Will Spears still be a starter when he returns? 

Bowen and Hatcher have played magnificently in his absence, so it isn’t a sure thing.  Hatcher is actually Spears’ backup, so he’d be the guy.

Could the Cowboys really only keep four players at a position that requires so many substitutions? The addition of Brent to the roster (at NT) makes me think it is possible.

Didn’t make the cut: As you can tell here, I love Marcus Dixon.  Unfortunately, he has yet to stand out in either preseason game. 

He has the requisite skill set and I’m personally rooting for him, but he needs to step up in a hurry.

Overall Position Grade: B-

ILB
1. Bradie James
2. Keith Brooking
3. Sean Lee
4. Jason Williams

James and Brooking look like players in their mid-20s so far this preseason.  They are flying around to the ball and together they comprise the “heart” of the Dallas defense. 

Didn’t make the cut: It is so hard for me to leave Leon Williams off of this roster, but I am having trouble deciding whose spot he should take.  It would be tremendously difficult for the Cowboys to cut Jason Williams, and he would never clear waivers to make it to the practice squad. 

I just can’t see the Cowboys keeping five inside linebackers. From which position do they “take” a roster spot? Leon Williams’ future, like that of a lot of players, could strangely be linked to that of Sam Hurd. 

Unfortunately, Williams isn’t practice squad eligible.

I’ve also seen a few projections with Stephen Hodge making the roster, but I just can’t see Dallas making room for him.

Overall Position Grade: B

 

OLB
1. DeMarcus Ware
2. Anthony Spencer
3. Victor Butler
4. Brandon Williams
5. Steve Octavien

I substituted Octavien for Curtis Johnson here.  It is possible the Cowboys keep neither player and just roll with four outside backers, but Coach Phillips loves depth at the position.

If the Cowboys do only keep four outside linebackers, they may very well retain five inside LBs.

Didn’t make the cut:  I don’t think Johnson’s special teams ability is any better than that of Octavien, but Octavien has shown more pass-rush ability.

Overall Position Grade: A (almost A+)

 

CB
1. Mike Jenkins
2. Terence Newman
3. Orlando Scandrick
4. Bryan McCann

No changes here. 

I’ve loved McCann since the Cowboys signed him and he’s done nothing to change my opinion. He’s shown tremendous athleticism and coverage ability.  If he can continue to prove he can hold up physically, I think he obtains the fourth (and last) cornerback spot. 

The versatility of the safeties (Akwasi Owusu-Ansah and Alan Ball) allows the ‘Boys to keep just four CBs.

Didn’t make the cut: Dallas suddenly has a “problem” of depth at cornerback. I don’t think rookie Jamar Wall is an NFL-caliber player yet, but veteran Cletis Gordon and even track star Teddy Williams could both make the team. 

Williams’ potential in particular is insane, but how do you use a roster spot on a player who hasn’t played football in five years?  Will he make it to the practice squad?

Overall Position Grade: B+

 

S
1. Gerald Sensabaugh
2. Alan Ball
3. Akwasi Owusu-Ansah
4. Michael Hamlin
5. Barry Church

The big question is whether Dallas will retain five safeties.

I think they will due to the lack of a true strong safety. Owusu-Ansah is a lock to make the team and Hamlin is probable (although I haven’t been overly impressed with his play this preseason), but both players are strong safeties. 

Church is probably the best of the Cowboys’ backup strong safeties.

Didn’t make the cut: No matter how things shake out, I think Patrick Watkins has already played his final season in Dallas. 

Danny McCray also has a chance to nab the final safety spot, but he’s probably better suited on the practice squad.

Overall Position Grade: C-

 

Specialists

LS
1. L.P. Ladouceur

Overall Position Grade: A

 

K
1. David Buehler

Buehler has looked pretty good on field goals in the preseason. 

He is six-of-seven thus far and he struck the ball very well on Thursday against Oakland.  If the Cowboys do need to bring in another kicker, they will have to release a very good player at another position.

 

Overall Position Grade: B- (A+ for kickoffs and a giant question mark on field goals)

P
1. Mat McBriar

Overall Position Grade: A

 

KR
1. Akwasi Owusu-Ansah
2. Dez Bryant
3. Kevin Ogletree

PR
1. Dez Bryant
2. Akwasi Owusu-Ansah
3. Patrick Crayton

Overall Returner Grade:  B+ (Based on potential)

 

Additions
TE Scott Sicko
G Phil Costa
NT Josh Brent
OLB Steve Octavien

Departures
TE John Phillips
G Travis Bright
DE Marcus Dixon
OLB Curtis Johnson

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Aug 17th, 2010 | Filed under Dallas Cowboys, Football, NFL, Preview/Prediction