Archives
The ongoing mock draft at www.chinstrapninjas.com has been garnering plenty of attention and comments as we weave through the rounds. Some crazy picks and unorthodox moves have defined this draft.
Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5
For an easy-to-navigate list of all our 2010 fantasy football strategies, advice, rankings, sleepers, etc., go here.
What craziness happens in round six of our redraft mock? Check it out below:
6.01 Owen Daniels, HOU (jzak)
Second part of my Texas two-step, Daniels, much like Schaub, has an injury onus on him, but few seem to remember how dominating he was at tight end last year before succumbing to injury. He deserves to be selected before some of the other tight ends on this list, in my opinion, and considering how many TEs are off the board at this point, I’m happy to take him here.
6.02 Pierre Garcon (ep)
Bottom line: Garcon is the No. 2 receiver for the high-powered Colts offense and could outscore Reggie Wayne in fantasy leagues in 2010. That makes him an easy sixth-rounder.
6.03 Jay Cutler (consigliere)
What’s not to like here. He has put up big numbers the past two years and the interception number doesn’t scare me one bit. He has also had low INT totals dating back to his Vandy days.
He is the most talented quarterback Mike Martz has had, all due respect to Kurt Warner.
6.04 Arian Foster (sockonfl)
I was going to wait another round, but I feel he will be the full time starter in Houston. That’s worth a ton considering how well that offense played last year. He also caught the ball out of the backfield some last year too. He could turn into an every down back. Just the type of back I need to take a chance on.
6.05 – Marion Barber (jay-mo)
I’ll probably get some grief for this pick, but I’m not drafting to make friends nor am I following some cookie-cutter glossy magazine. I was looking at WR here, but I’m confident my target will last until the next round. So, why not take the best available player (in my opinion)?
Obviously, Barber is going to get compared to Felix Jones. Barber is the starter: advantage one. Barber scores more often (7 TDs vs. 3 TDs): advantage two. Barber had nearly twice as many carries than Felix (214 vs. 116): advantage three. More importantly to me, Barber is the No. 1 runner in the red zone: advantage four.
I know, I know … that was last year and all of the fantasy experts are saying differently. Well, are they calling the plays for Dallas? Don’t believe me, watch the preseason …
6.06 Fred Jackson, BUF (jzak)Not thrilled with Jackson, but he is the official starter in Buffalo. In fact, he’s the main fantasy weapon in Buffalo at the moment. He’s the starter, for what it’s worth, and helps provide some RB depth.
6.07 Ahmad Bradshaw (speedy)
This might be a little high for him, but he’s been getting the starting carries early in training camp.
6.08 – Terrell Owens (ryder)
I’m going to go ahead and pick one half of the co-diva reality star T.O. Although he is getting older he still has a good year left in him. He is in much better situation this year with the Bengals rather then the dreadful Buffalo offense from a season ago. I cant believe I’m going to say this, but I think Chad Ochocinco and T.O. will help each other. Here comes Batman & Robin.
6.09 – Joe Flacco, BAL (krause)
I was going to wait on a QB but I like Flacco’s upside this year. Everything Baltimore did in the offseason makes me think their going to score a lot. Now I have Flacco and Ray Rice so 90% of the time Baltimore scores, I score.
6.10 Matt Ryan (consigliere)
Looking for a bounce back year for Ryan here. He has some legit weapons and i expect Michael Turner to be a lot better this year.
I am grabbing a top-10 quarterback here and hoping he plays like it. Not really a lot to say i am happy to have my starting line up filled out, now i need to fix my bench.
6.11 — Vincent Jackson, SD (ep)
It’s a risk because of Jackson’s holdout, but no other receiver has a better chance to transform my team at this point in the draft. If one side caves — V-Jax, dude, you’re not Andre Johnson — I get a top-10 receiver in the sixth round.
6.12 Hines Ward (sockonfl)
Seeing that ep stole my pick here right before me, I had to make a change of plans. I decided to go with the ever consistent and highly underrated Hines Ward. He puts up consistent numbers year in and year out. I know Ben Roethlisberger is out early on, but he will still post some solid numbers throughout the season.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
Every August as the summer winds down, the anticipation of football season grows. The highs and the lows, pure joy coupled with pure agony are the stops on the fantasy football roller coaster every fall. It all begins with the most exciting day this side of the Superbowl, the day of the fantasy draft.
The draft can very well determine the course that your team will follow for the rest of the year. If you miss on a player in the early rounds and you could be spending the rest of the season desperately raiding the wavier wire for suitable fill-ins. Anyone who has played at least one season can relate and this conundrum can be avoided with a quality draft.
So how do you put together a “quality draft”? The answer depends on what you consider “quality.” My definition of quality is drafting players who hold more value than their draft positions. For example, if you draft a player in the fourth round who produces more fantasy points than a player drafted in the second at the same position, then you drafted a quality player.
The Strategy:
There are many strategies that can be used when drafting a fantasy football team. One is to load up on a key position (usually RB) and hope to either score enough points with that position or trade some of the depth for other key position players later.
Which ever strategy you use, a good draft is the foundation for sustained competitiveness over the course of a season.
To complete a quality draft you have to pay attention to trends in the league and do a little homework about the teams in the league. For example, the NFL has become much more pass oriented in the last few years. When teams pass the ball more often Quarterbacks, receivers, and receiving running backs become more valuable.
This alters the conventional draft wisdom of solely loading up on running backs in the early rounds. With the passing offenses of today, you can ill afford to “pass” up the chance to acquire a top flight QB in the early rounds along with the quality running backs.
If you do not pick up a top QB your team will fall behind when the season hits its stride and teams start to open up their passing games.
Although running backs are still the anchor for your team, a lack of WR depth can derail your championship hopes fast. The last couple of years I have been burned by terrible WR years, by Steve Smith (CAR) in 2009 and Marvin Harrison/Santana Moss in 2008. Because of the fickle nature of the WR position you want to hold out on drafting your WR’s until your league starts picking them up, and once they do make sure to grab a couple fast.
You do not stand a chance to make the playoffs without a certified primary target at WR. WR has always been a source of trouble for my drafts in the past and I believe it is one of the hardest positions to get consistent production from.
This year I hope to target Colston, Reggie Wayne or S. Smith (NYG) as a second tier primary target. You want to choose a WR who is not any lower than the second option in the passing game like a Reggie Wayne or Larry Fitzgerald.
Do not get fooled by false targets such as Santonio Holmes, Santana Moss, or any receiver on the Dolphins (incl. Brandon Marshall). Recievers will look good on paper but will disappoint you on a weekly basis due to their teams reliance on the run and shaky quarterback play.
My super sleeper QB picks of the draft (I know they had good years in 09, but they will take another step forward):
Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, and Eli Manning and the deep sleeper….Alex Smith
So, as your draft progresses you want to make sure you fill your team with quality depth, especially at WR and RB. You also want to keep an eye on a QB as a bye week fill in and manage the rest of your teams bye week absences. The best bet is to look for the underrated backs or rookies poised to explode.
This year the list of under the radar RB’s include:
Arian Foster (HOU), Ahamd Bradshaw (NYG), Jahvid Best (DET), Beanie Wells (ARI), and Shonn Greene (NYJ).
As for the WRs set to explode on to the scene:
Michael Crabtree (SF), Pierre Garcon (IND), Jeremy Maclin (PHI), Johnny Knox (CHI), and possibly even Malcolm Floyd in the absence of Vincent Jackson.
I generally follow the following draft pattern to build a quality team:
QB/RB, RB/QB, RB, RB/WR, WR, TE/WR, TE,…the rest depth and Def.
It can be difficult to follow suit with a strategy when a draft is so dynamic and unpredictable, but keep your eye on the goal of building a quality team with consistent producers at multiple positions.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
I have Marques Colston ranked as the 10th wide receiver on my most recent rankings (click here to view). According to Mock Draft Central, his ADP is around 31 and he is the 11th wide receiver off the board.
The question is, is Colston a viable option in the second round of fantasy drafts?
He’s two years removed from his career year of 2007 (98 receptions for 1,202 yards and 11 TD), so there clearly is a little bit of risk involved in selecting him. His 2008 campaign was sabotaged by injuries (he broke his thumb in Week One), holding him just 11 games (and six starts).
Last season he appeared in all 16 games (14 starts), collecting 70 catches for 1,074 yards and nine touchdowns. Those are very good numbers, but they don’t portray an elite receiver on the surface.
In fact, overall he lacked consistent production in 2009. He had just three games of over 90 yards; five games of over 80 yards. Yes, it is beneficial that he scored touchdowns in eight separate games, which helped to give him a boost in the games where he didn’t compile large yard totals.
But is that enough?
One of the biggest positives, the strength of the Saints offense, is also a negative. Led by Drew Brees, the Saints have one of the most dynamic offenses in the game, but a lot of weapons that need to be brought into the picture.
Last season there were seven different Saints with at least 35 receptions. When you spread the ball around that much, it’s hard to imagine one receiver stepping up and having a monster season. Yes, Colston is the biggest fish in the pond, but there are only so many balls to go around.
While they don’t have an elite running game, you have to feed Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and others the ball in order to keep defenses off their feet. Plus, if Thomas were to take the next step (as some believe, though that’s a story for another day), you are going to need to increase his touches, limiting the number of pass attempts.
The Saints are a significantly different offense than they were in 2007, when Colston erupted and Reggie Bush added 73 receptions. That season, only five players had at least 35 catches. It doesn’t sound like a big difference, but those extra receptions going to secondary players limit the ability of your stars to produce big numbers.
Don’t get me wrong—I’d love to have Colston as a low-end WR1, but unless the Saints have a change in philosophy it’s highly unlikely he returns to the lofty numbers he once experienced. That seriously limits his potential fantasy value.
Obviously, it all depends on how your draft falls, but Colston does not appear like a good selection in the second round. There’s a lot of risk, and I think you can get a player of similar stature and upside, though with a better chance to get the high-end value, late in round two. I’d happily select him in the middle of round three, but not before.
What about you? Do you view Colston as a viable second-round pick? Why or why not?
Make sure to check out Rotoprofessor’s 2010 rankings:
Also, make sure to check out our recent rookie rankings:
THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM/FOOTBALL
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
Here are 75 Predictions for the NFL Season. I’m standing behind all of these predictions, and at the end of the season, I’m going to check myself.
Fill free to list your own predictions at the bottom of the list.
1. Chad Henne throws for 25+ touchdowns
2. Miami beats the New York Jets twice
3. Jets fall to 7-9 and miss the playoffs
4. Miami and New England split their games
5. Miami wins the division; New England gets the Wild Card
6. Louisville QB Brian Brohm starts for Buffalo at some point this season and plays well
7. It doesn’t matter, Buffalo falls to 3-13, get a top three pick, and gear up to take a QB next April
8. Fred Jackson rushes for 1000+ yards and five touchdowns
9. CJ Spiller is underwhelming
10. Joe Flacco becomes the best QB in the AFC North
11. Anquan Boldin doesn’t stay healthy, but still records 1000+ yards
12. Ray Rice tops 2000 total yards
13. Baltimore wins the division over Cincinnati
14. There is no more entertaining team than Cincinnati; they get the final wild card spot
15. Pittsburgh wins three out of the six games that Byron Leftwich starts, but still miss the playoffs
16. Cleveland improves to 5-11
17. Indianapolis locks up the division in week 12
18. Reggie Wayne takes a step back; Pierre Garcon takes two steps forward
19. Houston, once again, underwhelms their fans and the rest of the football world, missing the playoffs
20. Matt Schaub misses at least one game because of injury
21. RB Arian Foster finishes in the top 10 in rushing.
22. Chris Johnson tops out around 1500 rushing yards, 800 receiving yards
23. Vince Young plays well enough to get the Titans close, but they don’t make the playoffs.
24. Maurice Jones-Drew breaks down.
25. David Garrard plays poorly enough that he is replaced for next season.
26. Jacksonville underperforms and ownership starts to seriously contemplate moving the team.
27. Kansas City wins the AFC West
28. Eric Berry is Defensive Rookie of the Year
29. Kansas City leads the league in running the ball
30. San Diego Chargers miss the playoffs.
31. Oakland Raiders improve on their record from last year.
32. Jason Campbell becomes a Pro Bowl quarterback.
33. Denver Broncos don’t win more then five games.
34. Tim Tebow is the starting quarterback by week 10.
35. McDaniels is fired at the end of the season.
36. Knowshon Moreno proves to be a huge bust at running back.
37. The New York Giants win the NFC East
38. Hakeem Nicks is the leading wide receiver on the team and makes the Pro Bowl.
39. Ahmad Bradshaw rushes for 1000+ yards; Brandon Jacobs doesn’t.
40. Kevin Kolb throws for 25+ touchdowns and 20+ interceptions.
41. Philadelphia has a winning season, but they do not make the playoffs.
42. Dallas Cowboys get the final wild card spot on the final day of the season.
43. Felix Jones misses at least eight games due to injury.
44. Washington Redskins finish below .500.
45. Donovan McNabb has the worst stats out of every quarterback in the NFC East.
46. Albert Haynesworth records fewer than 30 tackles.
47. Green Bay Packers win the division and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
48. Aaron Rodgers is the NFL’s MV
49. Jay Cutler figures it out, and Chicago grabs a Wild Card spot.
50. With Julius Peppers’ arrival and the return of Brian Urlacher, the Bears have the best defense in the division.
51. Matt Forte tops 1500 total yards.
52. Brett Favre underperforms and doesn’t finish out the season due to injury.
53. Adrian Peterson cuts back on his fumbles but finishes fifth in rushing
54. The Detroit Lions win six games.
55. Jahvid Best outperforms every running back in the division.
56. New Orleans doesn’t make the playoffs behind Brees’ subpar season.
56. Atlanta Falcons make the playoffs and grab the second seed in the conference.
57. Tampa Bay outperforms last season and finishes in third place in the division.
58. The “Josh Freeman to Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn” hookup has shockingly good results.
59. Carolina finishes last in the division despite winning seven games.
60. Jimmy Clausen is starting by week eight, and plays well to finish out the season.
61. Matt Leinart leads Arizona to the playoffs in his first full year as a starter.
62. Steve Breaston and Larry Fitzgerald combine to form the top receiving tandem in their division.
63. Michael Crabtree suffers from a bad quarterback and puts up weak numbers; Vernon Davis falls back to earth.
64. Frank Gore misses at least four games due to injury.
65. Seattle wide receiver Mike Williams enjoys a good comeback season and catches eight touchdowns.
66. Charlie Whitehurst is starting by week eight.
67. Seattle wins six games in Pete Carroll’s first year.
68. LB Aaron Curry breaks out.
69. St. Louis is once again selecting in the top five in 2011
70. Sam Bradford starts in week 12 of this season.
71. The wild cards are Cincinnati, New England, Chicago, and Dallas
72. The AFC division winners are Miami, Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Kansas City
73. NFC division winners are New York Giants, Green Bay, Atlanta, and Arizona
74. Baltimore over New England; Atlanta over Green Bay in the conference games
75. Baltimore beats Atlanta in the Super Bowl
Also remember that I do a Friday mailbag. Email questions to sherwoodanderson@rocketmail (or league them on my page) and they might, just might, make the cut.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
Respect.
Rodney Dangerfield and Aretha Franklin made fortunes off it, but there are some fantasy football players who aren’t getting enough right now.
With the season right around the corner, we take a look at one player from each offensive position who is being undervalued in dynasty league circles.
While some of these players may not be considered “elite,” they’re all capable of helping a team win games in both the short and long term.
Jason Campbell, QB, OAK
Campbell has been left for dead in some dynasty leagues.
In fact, he was taken at No. 208 in the recent experts league draft we participated in with other prominent fantasy sites.
More than anything, Campbell was a product of his environment in Washington. He was constantly learning a new offense, yet expected to carry a team with few offensive weapons.
His career numbers of 10,860 yards, and 55 touchdowns against just 38 interceptions are pretty impressive considering his past surroundings. Throw in a quarterback rating of 82.3 percent and you have a surprisingly solid player to those not paying attention.
A fresh start in Oakland is exactly what Campbell needs. He’ll have a learning curve again, but won’t be looking over his shoulder this season.
Help from Darren McFadden and Michael Bush would help. As would the evolution of his receiving corps, outside of emerging star Zach Miller.
Regardless, Campbell enters the season as an underrated fantasy quarterback.
Expect him to emerge as a solid No. 2 option in dynasty leagues.
Pierre Thomas, RB, NO
Elimination of a pesky short yardage back. Check.
Experience in the offensive scheme. Check.
Faith of the coaching staff. Check.
Respect of fantasy owners as a potential top-10 back. No check?
His 793 yards and six touchdowns in 2009 don’t excite you much. His opportunity for improvement should. Mike Bell has taken his 654 yards to Philadelphia. His potential short yardage replacement in Lynell Hamilton is out for the year. Reggie Bush is, well, Reggie Bush.
There’s no question that Thomas will be counted on to be the prime running back for New Orleans this season. It’s really the opportunity of a lifetime for him.
The Saints offense is extremely explosive and should set Thomas up for a ton of scoring opportunities this season. If he stays healthy, there’s no reason to believe he won’t post his first 1,000 yard, double digit touchdown season.
The stars are aligned for Thomas to finally have his breakout season for the Saints.
Steve Smith, WR, NYG
The talk around dynasty leagues in regards to the wide receiving corps of the Giants typically starts and ends with Hakeem Nicks. It should revolve around Smith.
His breakout season of 107 catches, 1,220 yards, and seven touchdowns in 2009 was incredible. His reception total was good for 2nd in the NFL, his yardage total was eighth best in the league, and his touchdown total placed him in a tie for 20th.
So, how does someone fly this far under the radar? It’s most likely a combination of speculation and disbelief.
Many owners don’t think Smith can repeat those gaudy numbers with such talented receivers on the team like Nicks, Mario Manningham, and Ramses Barden. We didn’t even mention the new lightning bug, Victor Cruz.
Smith developed into Eli Manning’s best safety valve last season. While a small dropoff could be expected, Smith isn’t going anywhere.
John Carlson, TE, SEA
Carlson started last year like a house on fire with 95 yards, and two touchdowns in the Seahawks opener against St. Louis. Unfortunately, those were his highest game totals of the entire season.
He’s been placed on the third tier of tight ends by a lot of dynasty league owners. He should be squarely on the second tier after the likes of Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten.
Pete Carroll and his coaching staff have already fallen in love with his ability. They’ve certainly noticed he finished last season strong with a touchdown in four straight games.
Matt Hasselbeck has constantly been singing his praises of late as well. It’s been reported that Hasselbeck told ESPN’s Chris Mortensen that Carlson’s photo will be on the wall at team headquarters after the season as a tribute to the Seahawks’ best player.
While that may be exaggerating just a little, it’s a sure sign that Carlson should be squarely on the radars of dynasty league owners as a player who could break into the top seven or eight tight ends in scoring this season.
SUMMARY
Each of these players seems to be undervalued in many dynasty leagues across the country. While they may not win you a championship on their own, they could each certainly win you a game or two.
Unfortunately for them, they currently sit on “Fantasy Island” as lonely players being disrespected.
For the complete set of strategic 2010 dynasty rankings, click below:
Strategic Quarterback Rankings
Strategic Running Back Rankings
Strategic Wide Receiver Rankings
Strategic Tight End Rankings
Strategic IDP Rankings
Join our fantasy football community at
www.DynastyLeagueFootball.com/dlforum
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
