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Here are some takeaways after the first week of preseason games:
Anthony Dixon/Brian Westbrook - Well, Anthony Dixon lit it up only to have San Fran sign Brian Westbrook. Westbrook will be a must own hand-cuff for Frank Gore owners.
Joe Flacco - The preseason should confirm that Flacco is an amazing fifth round QB target for all of you fifth round QB drafters. I know, I am in that boat.
Randy Moss - Moss is going to be a beast as long as Tom Brady is on the field. He is without a doubt one of my favorite WR targets for 2010.
Dexter McCluster - A clone of Percy Harvin; he will be used in the KC offense as a gadget player for 2010. Keep an eye on this youngster and dynasty leaguers should snag him in the later rounds.
Josh Freeman - He really isn’t as bad as people think; I would be fine to have him as a back-up QB, if I wanted to take a back-up QB late in the draft.
Jahvid Best - Um, yes, he is solid. I like this kid in PPR formats and he will be able to post some solid yardage. But don’t expect too many TD’s with him in 2010.
Andre Johnson - A man among boys; he is without a doubt the No. 1 WR target for 2010.
Aaron Rodgers/Greg Jennings/Jermichael Finley - All of these gents are going to have a very solid 2010. Each one of these players is worth reaching for as you can’t make a bad decision by drafting any one of these players.
Ben Tate/Arian Foster/Steve Slaton - Later Mr. Tate… Arian Foster is the clear front runner with Slaton backing him up. Move Foster up your draft guides in all formats.
CJ Spiller - Lynch and Jackson are nursing their wounds so CJ will pull the start at the beginning of the season. The Bills are already interviewing some RB’s, as Jackson will be out 5-6 weeks and Lynch will be out 4 weeks.
Devin Aromashodu/Johnny Knox - So I admit it, Knox is the favorite target and then Aromashodu; Aromashodu is very strong but he won’t unseat Knox this year. Knox is a Miles Austin type player and he has rocketed up my draft board while Aromashodu as taken a step back. I can’t say I am not a little bit disappointed. But don’t sleep too much on Aromashodu.
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There is no tried and true method to drafting and winning in fantasy football. As the pro game adapts and fantasy rosters and rules become more sophisticated, draft strategies have changed as well. Here are 10 strategies to consider as you prepare for fantasy draft this year.
1. Focus Your Pre-draft Preparation on the Talent in the Middle and Late Rounds of Your Draft (or Under $5 guys in Auction Leagues)
The elite talents are easy to identify and tend to get the bulk of the attention leading up to draft day, but drafts are won and lost in the later rounds.
Identifying this year’s Miles Austin or Sidney Rice will dramatically increase your odds of winning. Focus your preparations on finding these players.
2. Use Your Late Round Picks on High Upside Young Players
At the end of drafts it is easy to focus on recognizable names such as Roy Williams, LaDainian Tomlinson or Todd Heap who will provide modest results that can be found on the waiver wire.
Instead, focus on players who may be getting an opportunity for the first time or looking to progress in their second or third season. These players may or may not break out, but if they don’t, you can find the modest numbers guy on the waiver wire.
Plus, if you hit on one of these picks, you can always brag that you uncovered a gem. One of my greatest fantasy moments was drafting Anquan Boldin with the last pick in the draft his rookie year. For a list of players worthy of late round flyers, check out my Sleepers article.
3. Chart the Picks In Your Draft
Keeping track of the draft picks and the makeup of each team’s roster is the most underutilized technique in fantasy football. It always amazes me how few team’s utilize this simple but extremely useful technique.
Tracking opposing rosters will help you determine which player or position will be available for your next pick. In auction leagues, it can help you determine who is bluffing and who is not.
4. Be Flexible
The biggest mistake an owner can make going into a draft is to be locked into a specific strategy.
It is okay to have a plan, but when a run at a position blows it up, don’t force a pick to stick to the plan.
As an example, last season entering a 12 team serpentine draft with the 11th selection, my plan was to go wide receiver, wide receiver with my first two picks. But when the 12th team stole my strategy taking my top four off the board, I audibled to Aaron Rodgers, providing a Rodgers-Andre Johnson building block.
5. Never Take the “Just Had to Take Him” Guy
If a player you don’t really like appears to fall in your lap unexpectedly (Brian Westbrook or LT last season for example) there is usually a reason.
Trust your gut on this one.
There is too much depth and talent in a draft to waste a pick on a player you are not comfortable with, especially early. (Bust Candidates)
6. Draft Value Over Upside and Even Position Early
In the first four rounds of your draft you are building the foundation of your franchise.
With this in mind, take the best player available regardless of position (as long as you are not drafting a backup), in these rounds.
There is enough depth at quarterback, running back and wide receiver to fill a need in a later round as long as you made your early picks count.
7. Position Yourself to Draft One of the Seven Elite Quarterbacks
In 2009, nine quarterbacks threw for 4,200+ yards and 26+ touchdowns (“will he or won’t he” Brett Favre and suspended Ben Roethlisberger round out the nine).
Beyond that group, just two other players surpassed 3,800 yards passing and only two threw for more than 21 touchdowns.
Based on these stats, if you don’t get one of those seven you are losing out on at least 400 yards and 5 touchdowns from the quarterback position.
Your league’s rules will determine when you will need to draft a top seven quarterback, but just realize you may need to take one a round or two earlier than usual if you want to guarantee yourself one of the top seven.
It is great to be the team who finds the next Matt Schaub but it’s not when that player goes bust (just ask Matt Ryan owners last year).
8. Don’t Go Running Back/Running Back in Rounds 1 and 2
Once you get beyond the top six or seven backs, the rest of the top 20 backs start to look a lot alike. Lots of upside plays and a couple of solid vets, but considerable risk.
The top heavy nature of the quarterback and wide receiver positions combined with the depth at running back makes grabbing an elite quarterback or wide receiver by the end of round two, if not grabbing one of each (or double dipping at wide receiver) by the end of round three.
9. When Players Play is More Important than the Stats They Put Up in the Pre-Season
Drafting the player who leads the league in rushing in garbage time in the pre-season is rarely valuable, but the wide receiver who is getting reps with the first team is.
10. Listen to What Quarterbacks Say About Their Receivers in the Pre-Season
Head coaches rarely open the vault on their hidden gems, but quarterbacks will often provide hints at their new favorite targets.
Hint: Pay attention to Jay Cutler in Chicago. Quarterbacks in Denver, Washington, St. Louis and Buffalo could also provide useful sleeper knowledge.
Honorable Mention: The Poorest Offenses are Often A Great Source of Sleeper Options
Taking the best players on bad teams has always been a cheap source of fantasy talent. No offense is getting less buzz than the Buffalo Bills this pre-season, but if the team implements the spread as Chan Gailey did in Kansas City two years ago, the Bills could produce a fantasy gem (James Hardy? Steve Johnson? Shawn Nelson?)
Check out NFLDraft101′s complete fantasy guide.
Chris Maier is Senior Editor for NFLDraft101.com. He can be reached at cmaier@nfldraft101.com. Follow me on twitter: nfldraft101
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Some moments in sports history have a peculiar habit of falling into an entrapping black hole that escapes memory and time.
Take Super Bowl XLII as a concrete example. Pop in a DVD of America’s Game: The 2007 New York Giants, and you’ll notice that David Tyree’s yet to be named but rightfully immortalized helmet catch leads directly to Plaxico Burress‘ game-winning touchdown.
Missing in between is one of the most unheralded clutch plays in Super Bowl history, from a wide receiver who somehow flies under the radar in the NFL‘s massive national landscape and New York City’s blinding lights despite 107 catches, 1,220 yards, seven touchdowns, and a Pro Bowl appearance last season.
With 45 seconds left, all signs pointed to Tyree’s catch being all for naught, as the Giants, down 14-10, faced a third-and-11 from the Patriots‘ 25-yard line with no timeouts remaining.
Then rookie Steve Smith lined up as the slot receiver next to Amani Toomer. After the ball was snapped, Toomer got in cornerback Brandon Meriweather’s way as Smith broke free for an eight yard out. Eli Manning fired the ball into Smith’s breadbasket near the sideline, and Smith immediately looked for the first-down marker. At this juncture, Smith needed to have the balance of an Olympic gymnast and the elusiveness of Barry Sanders to stay in play, avoid a hard-charging Meriweather, get the first down, and run out of bounds to kill the clock.
He did just that, with one yard to spare.
Yet this hidden gem of a play is buried amidst the on- and off-field soap opera drama from that night and season.
That Super Bowl moment serves as the defining symbol for Smith’s career. Smith does all the little things that need to be done on the football field without the adulation of other wide receivers in this “me-first” generation, yet does not receive the fanfare that the statistics and hustle he displays on the field say he rightfully deserves.
After missing 11 regular season games in 2007, Smith had 14 catches in the 2007 playoffs as the team’s third receiver. The following year, Smith led the 12-4 Giants with 57 catches despite starting only four games. After Burress’ nightclub incident, Smith received more playing time and became the team’s No. 1 wideout in 2009. He had a monumental season, highlighted by a 10-catch, 134-yard performance at Dallas in the first regular season game at Cowboys Stadium. His 107 catches broke the Giants’ single-season mark for receptions by a staggering 25, and his 1,220 yards were second-highest in team history behind Amani Toomer’s 1,343 yards in 2002.
Want more proof that Smith is the most underrated player in the NFL today? The 5’11″, 195 lb USC product was second in the NFL last year among No. 1 wide receivers with a 68.2 catch rate percentage. That number is even more impressive considering that he was targeted for 29.4 percent of the Giants’ throws last season, a number that also ranks second in the league. His 107 receptions ranked fourth, and after four games last season, he had accrued 34 catches, 411 yards, and four touchdowns. For good measure he also converted 61 first downs, tied for seventh among wideouts.
His most impressive statistic, however, occurred in the last game of the season and defined both the player on the field and the man off it.
With the Giants having been eliminated from playoff contention in Week 16 following a loss to Carolina and a Dallas win against Washington, New York went into Minnesota with nothing to play for but pride. The Vikings thoroughly out-played the Giants, winning 44-7, but Steve Smith still caught 10 tough passes for 57 yards, playing with the same intensity and emotion as he did in Super Bowl XLII.
Smith has developed into an elite possession receiver with velcro-grip hands and a great awareness of his surroundings. He runs over the middle of the field with total fearlessness and dances along the sidelines to make tiptoe catches in double coverage.
Furthermore, Smith has excellent horizontal and vertical elusiveness, and is one of the shiftiest wideouts in the league. He can burn two cornerbacks down the sideline for a jump ball or find a miniscule seam in the middle of the field after juking a defensive back to convert a third-and-10.
And he does this all with his head down.
Smith isn’t the fastest WR in the NFL. He isn’t the tallest or most athletic. With all the talk about Chad Ochocinco and T.O. and Miles Austin and the other Steve Smith, he isn’t the most well-known either.
No, but Smith’s superlatives are far more important.
He ranks among the best wide receivers in the league in fearlessness, awareness, humility, dependability, and perseverance, traits that have marked the physically and mentally strongest wide receivers to ever play this sport.
Maybe this year football fans will take notice of this sleeping Giant.
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When the Dallas Cowboys drafted Dez Bryant with the 24th pick this past April, sitting in my living room all I could think is “Wow, they got one hell of a player at that spot in the draft.”
Bryant’s been the subject of plenty of media attention this offseason, from his early contract signing when he appeared hold-out prone, to his refusal to carry pads as a rookie punishment.
Also, who could forget the question posed by Dolphins’ general manager Jeff Ireland during a pre-draft team interview: “Is your mother a prostitute?”
However, his best press has been due to his outstanding ability on the field, and his cool demeanor off of it. Could he have snapped at reporters when asked about the prostitute question? Surely. I know I may have.
And his work ethic and dedication to being the best wide receiver on the Dallas Cowboys has been just as consistent as his off-field handling of the press.
That’s a tall order, considering he’s playing with Miles Austin, Jason Witten (the best receiving tight end in the NFL), and former no. 1 receiver, Roy Williams, along with solid receiver Patrick Crayton.
He’s shown the ability to quickly pick up the playbook, and his development into the true No. 1 receiver he projects as shouldn’t be too long.
Meanwhile in the NFC, there’s another young stud wideout in San Francisco, and that man is Michael Crabtree.
He’s done great for the 49ers, although they started their relationship a little rocky. Crabtree wanted top five money, even though he was drafted with the 10th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. You don’t just come into the NFL demanding you get paid differently than your slot in the draft dictates.
Eventually, the ‘Niners and Crabtree found a middle point and got him on the field, but it took until November 25th for him to get his first start in a game.
Crabtree’s numbers in 11 games last season were pretty decent considering his lengthy holdout: 48 receptions, 625 yards and two touchdowns.
Crabtree versus Bryant should be interesting to see over the next 10 years. Here’s an early breakdown:
Speed
Crabtree has the speed advantage over Bryant, and uses that against slower DBs to get downfield and open for a catch. Bryant’s lack of elite speed is made up for though.
What he lacks in speed, Bryant possesses elite level acceleration to get to his top speed, and his power off the line of scrimmage will be intimidating corners for the next 10 years. I’d like to see a in-his-prime Al Harris play bump-n’-run coverage on the line against Bryant. He wouldn’t need to use speed to make his move, he’d be physical enough to push Harris back and cut up the field to get open for a big play.
In total, Bryant’s speed may not be that of a Crabtree or a Desean Jackson, but his “just enough” speed, coupled with his 5 yard contact skills makes him deadly off the line.
Physicality
Now this is rather difficult to determine, but I’ll lay out how I value “physicality”: the receiver is able to break the bump-and-run style of coverage off of the line of scrimmage, as well as their ability to get past linebackers and safeties over the middle while making the catch and completing their route.
In this category, I’ll split it 50/50. Crabtree’s the better route runner, but Bryant is more of a physical receiver using his 6’2″, 225-pound frame to his advantage mowing down corners and fighting off safety coverages as he goes up for the catch.
However, where Crabtree excels and is better than Bryant, is route running. Be it a wheel route, or a go route, or an in, you can safely bet that Crabtree will be where you need him when you plant on your five-step drop.
At times at Oklahoma State, Bryant wasn’t the most consistent route runner on the field.
Like I pointed out though, it’s pretty much tomatoe/tomato here. If you prefer a route runner, Crabtree’s your man. If your team is looking for a dominating, truly physical presence in the middle of the field, Bryant’s your selection here.
Route Running
I won’t break it down here, as I pretty much laid that out in the previous section. In recap, Crabtree’s a better route runner.
Field Awareness
To quote Al Davis, “You can’t teach speed!!”
However, with that speed, it’s nice to have a decent football IQ to go with it.
Crabtree and Bryant are pretty equal in this regard. Both have done well in picking up their playbooks (although Crabtree now has an extra year under his belt). However, Crabtree’s routes are more crisp, and he’s less likely to get lost on “Revis Island,” for example.
I’d be inclined to give Crabtree the edge, but as Bryant develops over the years, he should narrow the gap and become an elite receiver just the same.
All Around
Now, I’m not one to pick a side when setting the table for a debate on B/R, but my long-term money is on Bryant.
Your speed will eventually fail as you grow older in the eyes of the NFL, but your strength can be maintained well into your mid-30s. Bryant is less polished right now, but he’s like a classic muscle car.
You can’t help but tune him up and have a machine-like receiver in your garage, or, offense.
Now, B/R readers, I leave it to you: Who’s your pick?
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The Raiders were in Jones Mahal for a preseason game against the Cowboys Thursday night. It wasn’t a sexy game but much could be learned about the direction of Raiders from the way they played.
The first thing that jumped out at me was that this was indeed Raider football!
The Raiders were pressured Cowboy quarterbacks on defense and featured a power-running game on offense. They also put a scare into the Cowboy secondary with a few shots down the field.
Penalties are the unwanted part of Raider football that also showed up on Thursday night. The Raiders were among the most penalized teams in the league even during their glory years.
Raider football is back!
The defense, as it was in all of the Raider glory years stayed in dark side mode throughout. From first unit to last, they didn’t allow much from the Cowboys.
Rolando McClain and Lamarr Houston showed themselves to be the beasts that they are. The vaunted Cowboy running game went nowhere fast as McClain was always around the ball with friends.
Houston helped against the run but impressed even more with two sacks in the first quarter. It really doesn’t look like Houston will be blockable this year.
Also among the Raider unblockables Thursday night was Matt Shaunessy. He chipped in with a sack himself and was also a part of the Raider’s stoutness against the run.
I can’t say the words Raider pass-rush without mentioning Trevor Scott. He constantly made himself an unwelcome guest in the Cowboy backfield and got himself a sack.
The coverage was stellar as Nnamdi Asomugha had a near interception the one time they did throw at him. Jerome Boyd sealed the game with a pic six late in the game.
I also felt like Chris Johnson was good in coverage Thursday night. He did give up the big third-down conversion catch to Miles Austin but that was good coverage beaten by better throwing and receiving.
There was a Chris Cooper sighting on this night as well. He pitched in with a sack as he was just one of three men rushing the passer on the play.
Richard Seymour, Tommy Kelly, Matt Shaughnessy and Houston looked like a murderers row. I don’t know how much blitzing the Raiders will do but it looks like they will be able to get there with four this year.
The power-run was also there as Michael Bush started the game running with the authority. From there, an interesting competition for the third tailback spot broke out.
Both Michael Bennett and Rock Cartwright stood out on Thursday night. They both had catches for big yards but Bennett displayed better running skill and peripheral vision in the running game.
Advantage, Bennett so far.
Marion Henderson looked more like the 2008 version while he was in there. I look forward to apologizing to him for my previous articles if he can keep this up.
However,there are two weak-spots on that offensive line that showed themselves on the same play. Samson Satele almost seemed to show his man the way to the quarterback. Cooper Carlisle was beaten on the play as well but Satele’s man got to the quarterback first.
Veldheer looked good at left tackle but he is obviously needed at center now. It’s also time for Campbell to get more of a look at right guard too.
Did you see the surge Veldheer created on the quarterback sneak.
Louis Murphy was not a disappointment as he had two near misses on deep balls. I said in a previous article that he may very well have the most game speed in the NFL.
Johnny Lee Higgins made a case for himself last night but Yamon Figures made an even better one. They both made some catches but Figures’ stood out more and Higgins lost one he should hold on to.
Jason Campbell didn’t have a high completion percentage but the Raiders didn’t play percentage football. They played pressure football while he was in there.
Campbell was accurate underneath but narrowly missed on two deep balls to Murphy. Murphy especially had his man beat on the second one but Campbell led him just out of bounds.
It was only his first preseason game and Campbell will eventually straighten those throws out. As it was, he struck fear into the Cowboy defense and that allowed the running game to get going.
Speaking of straightening those throws out, that is what back-up quarterback Kyle Boller did. He shook off a rough start to do some pretty good things in there.
He also scared the Cowboys with a near miss deep ball to 2009 preseason star Nick Miller. Boller then found Miller for the go-ahead touchdown later in the game.
Miller is another one of those guys I am excited about for 2010.
With speed and physicality, it appears that the essence of Raider football has been restored.
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