NFL News, Rumors, Scores, Predictions, and Stats

Tony Romo is overrated.  He’s a farce.  He chokes in big games.  He doesn’t care about football.  He’s more interested in becoming a star than a championship quarterback.

It’s difficult to convince anyone of anything when these are their thoughts about your team’s quarterback, and I hear them each and every day.

Never mind that he’s made three Pro Bowls.   Never mind that he’s No. 3 on the NFL’s all-time  passer rating list, and No. 4 all-time  in yards-per-pass.   Never mind that he just led your ‘Boys to their first playoff win in over a decade.

Now, Romo himself has said he’s not yet an elite quarterback  (although I beg to differ), but that doesn’t mean he won’t become  an elite quarterback.  The great Peyton Manning didn’t win a playoff game until his sixth (!) NFL season.

 I didn’t hear the Indy media calling for his head back in 2003.  When you’re the quarterback of America’s Team though, expectations are a bit different.

Romo has already won a playoff game, but there’s no doubting the fact that now, in 2010 (technically 2011), he needs to advance (far) in the playoffs.

And what if he doesn’t?  I’m not thinking about that right now.  I have full confidence in the star-donning quarterback because I’m on Team Romo.  Amber Leigh is on Team Romo .  Are you?

The Evidence

I’ll admit it is easy to select a team’s quarterback as their most vital player—very few teams could still make a playoff run with their backup signal-caller at the helm.

But Romo surpasses the worth of an average quarterback by leaps and bounds.  There is a reason I provided him with the highest grade of any Dallas Cowboy  in 2009.

Now, I could try to impress you with Romo’s 4,483 yards or 26:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but the truth is Romo just needs to do what it takes to win in 2010.

And he’s done that in the past, posting an incredible 107-55 record to date.  Of course, as fans, we want playoff  wins.  We expect  Romo to get to the playoffs.  But let’s not forget that these expectations only result from our overwhelming confidence in him.

Did we expect  the same for Quincy Carter or Chad Hutchinson?  How about Ryan Leaf?  Clint Stoerner? Drew Henson?  How about the incomparable Brad Johnson, whose three-game stint in 2008 showed us how important Tony Romo is to the Dallas Cowboys.

With Romo, the Cowboys are one of the NFL’s best teams, possessing one of the most dangerous offenses in the league.  Without him, they are mediocre.  They are boring.  They are the Washington Redskins. . .crap.

And, unfortunately, that’s the only way many fans appreciate Romo’s importance—by his absence.

Michael Irvin summed it up best:

Can we get Drew Bledsoe back out here (for) just a week so you guys can really fall back in love with Tony?  Let’s put Drew Bledsoe back out here, because sometimes when you have a pretty girl for awhile, you forget how pretty she is. But when you throw the ugly girl next to her, you say, ‘No, I’m really doing well.’ Maybe we need to bring Drew out so we know we’re really doing well.

Subtract any other offensive player from the Cowboys and the team will keep on rolling.  Lose Doug Free or Marc Colombo to injury?  Alex Barron can step in.  How about a receiver?  Well, that happened yesterday with the Dez Bryant injury , but the Cowboys will be fine.  

Andre Gurode and Jason Witten are incredibly important players without completely reliable backups, but their losses still wouldn’t be debilitating.

Losing Romo would be crippling to the Cowboys.  Could they make the playoffs?  Perhaps. Could they win a championship?  Not a chance.

This time let’s not wait for a Romo injury before we realize his importance.  It’s easy to call for the backup when things aren’t going as planned, but true, loyal fans stick by their guy during times of adversity.  

On which side of the fence will you be this season if the ‘Boys stumble out of the gate to a 4-4 start?  Will you be screaming for Kitna?  Or will you support your quarterback, knowing he is the most vital piece to the Super Bowl puzzle?

So I guess I’ll ask you again. . .are you on Team Romo?

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Last season, a few breakout players helped turn around the Cowboys’ season, most notably Miles Austin. Following a Week Four loss in Denver, the ‘Boys were reeling. Starting receiver Roy Williams got injured, opening the door for Austin’s 10 catches for 250 yards and two touchdowns in an overtime win in Kansas City. Who knows how the team’s season would have unfolded without Austin’s presence?

This season, a variety of players are primed for breakout seasons. In uncovering these players, I like to look at statistics which are not generally utilized, but still provide an idea of how efficiently a player can perform. Defensive end Jason Hatcher, for example, racked up 17 quarterback pressures in 2009, yet totaled just one sack. With his snap count figuring to increase, the rate that Hatcher reaches the quarterback could put him in line for six to eight sacks this season.

In this slideshow are 10 Cowboys players who are ready to become household names.

Begin Slideshow

There is very little doubt that the 2010 season will be the beginning of a new era for the Washington Redskins.

A new coach, a new general manager and a new quarterback will all be part of the rebuilding process as the ‘Skins look to rebound from a dreadful 4-12 campaign last year.

While much of this offseason’s conversation has been about the trade for Donovan McNabb, perhaps the most intriguing moves GM Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan have made are those at running back.

Toward the end of last season, Clinton Portis drew a great deal of heat from within the organization for his lack of effort—add this to the fact that his numbers seem to be on the decline because his body can’t handle the beatings it once could, and it is no surprise that the Redskins went out and got someone to help out with the load.

However, while it was expected that Washington get another running back, the fact that the team signed two backs has fans wondering whether Portis’ career as a Redskin has come to an end.

It isn’t just the number of running backs that warrants the questioning, but the type of players that were added. Both Willie Parker and Larry Johnson are veteran players with about as much wear-and-tear as Portis and both are very similar in their styles of running.

Even though Johnson and Parker were signed at pretty low salary cap numbers, the fact that Washington signed well-known two guys leads me to believe Portis is done.

Now, obviously a team keeps anywhere from three-to-five running backs on its roster at all times, but can you honestly see any of those three guys being fine as the third name on the depth chart?

Each of the three players was regarded as a top-10 running back in the NFL as recently as two or three years ago—and egos will prevent all three from playing in Washington.

As if that doesn’t make things dicey enough, it is no secret that Washington is also pursuing former Eagles back Brian Westbrook.

How many over-the-hump players does Shanahan want in his backfield?

I say that Portis will be the odd man out since Shanahan will be looking to change the culture of the locker room—and that will start by eliminating people he deems aren’t working hard enough.

Shanahan will certainly give Portis the opportunity to show that the talks of a poor work ethic are a thing of the past, but the signing of other big names at his position aren’t exactly a vote of confidence.

Even if Westbrook chooses another route (which I doubt because he was born and raised a Redskins fan) and the ‘Skins enter training camp with just the three currently on the roster, I have to believe that it will be a battle for two spots.

With the injury history of all three players, it is possible that the odd man out will be whoever misses time to injury, but nothing is for certain.

As Redskins fans have seen in recent years, the organization seems to ignore loyalty in efforts to win at all costs (ask LaVar Arrington, Jason Campbell, Rock Cartright, John Jansen and Stephen Davis), so the years Portis has played here won’t have an impact at all.

If Portis does end up being released, it will be a tough pill to swallow for the fans around the “District” who remember the days of Coach Janky Spanky and Southeast Jerome. Regardless of which of Portis’ interview character was your favorite, it will die once he suits up in another uniform.

I personally would have thought Shanahan would show support for Portis because they were so successful in Denver together, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.

He’s gotten rid of Portis once before, so don’t be shocked if he does it again.

This article is part of NFC Beasts , a blog dedicated to the action in the NFC East—the most competitive and intense division in all American sports

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

I’ve spent some time talking about Jason Garrett’s 3rd down play-calls in the past, but only as they relate to the previous play.  I found that, unlike during his 2nd down play-calling , Garrett is actually rather unpredictable on 3rd down (that’s a good thing, of course).

 

In a recent post on why the Cowboys should pass out of “running” formations (and also in one on why teams should attempt a lot more 4th down plays ), I spoke briefly about run/pass efficiency on 3rd down.  In short, NFL offenses fair much better when running the ball on 3rd and short (particularly 3rd and 1-3, but up until 3rd and 5).  Incredibly, running the ball is just as effective as passing up through 3rd and 10.  You can click the link above to read more about why this is so and view a graph displaying the conversion rates.

Nonetheless, I wanted to compare the Cowboys’ 2009 results with the league-wide numbers.  How effective was the offense when they ran the ball in “obvious” passing situations?  Note that these results (above) may be (very slightly) off from the numbers of Stats, Inc. or other unofficial stats companies because I did not use the televised ‘down and distance.’  For example, the televised version of a game may have mislabeled a play as ‘3rd and 1′ when it was really closer to ‘3rd and 2,’ and I have corrected these mistakes to the best of my ability.

Notice the Cowboys’ yards-per-carry steadily rose (other than on 3rd and 6) as the yards-to-go increased.  This is obviously due to personnel and the game situation.  A defense which has substituted dime personnel on a 3rd and 10 is much more likely to yield a significant gain on the ground.  Of course, the yards-per-carry means nothing if the Cowboys are not achieving first downs.

 

The chart above displays the conversion rate of all Cowboys’ 3rd down plays (of 10 or less yards-to-go) in 2009.  As you can see, the Cowboys were more efficient on 3rd and 1 or 2 when running the ball.  They converted 17/21 (81.0%) plays in these situations, compared to only 7/11 (63.6%) when passing.

As the distance-to-go increased, however, the conversion rate on runs dropped.  The Cowboys converted zero 3rd downs when running the ball with 8+ yards to go (although they attempted just four).

Interestingly, the conversion rate of 3rd down passes remained relatively stable, regardless of the distance-to-go.  You can see a very slight drop in the Cowboys’ 3rd down passing efficiency, but for the most part, the conversion rate was flat.  This is probably due more so to the team’s success in 3rd and long situations rather than an inability to convert on 3rd and short (when passing).

I give offensive coordinator Jason Garrett a lot of flack, but his 3rd down play-calling is generally outstanding.  I’d still love to see him run more on 3rd and medium (the ‘Boys ran just seven times on 3rd and 3-6 all season, compared to 42 passes). Of course one would expect more passes in this range, but a slight increase in “surprise” runs would be in-tune with league-wide 3rd down conversion rates and could perhaps significantly aid the offense.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Wide Receiver is an interesting position for fantasy owners when you think about it.  After the top 15-20 options, are there really many sure things?  What you have is a number of options that could emerge, could stagnate, or could fall flat.  

Let’s take a look at how I currently have everyone ranked:

1. Andre Johnson – Houston Texans
2. Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals
3. Reggie Wayne – Indianapolis Colts
4. Randy Moss – New England Patriots
5. Calvin Johnson – Detroit Lions
6. Miles Austin – Dallas Cowboys
7. Roddy White – Atlanta Falcons
8. Brandon Marshall – Miami Dolphins
9. Vincent Jackson – San Diego Chargers
10. DeSean Jackson – Philadelphia Eagles
11. Marques Colston – New Orleans Saints
12. Sidney Rice – Minnesota Vikings
13. Anquan Boldin – Baltimore Ravens
14. Steve Smith – New York Giants
15. Chad Ochocinco – Cincinnati Bengals
16. Greg Jennings – Green Bay Packers
17. Steve Smith – Carolina Panthers
18. Mike Sims-Walker – Jacksonville Jaguars
19. Dwayne Bowe – Kansas City Chiefs
20. Hines Ward – Pittsburgh Steelers
21. Michael Crabtree – San Francisco 49ers
22. Hakeem Nicks – New York Giants
23. Percy Harvin – Minnesota Vikings
24. Mike Wallace – Pittsburgh Steelers
25. Pierre Garcon – Indianapolis Colts
26. Steve Breaston – Arizona Cardinals
27. Santana Moss – Washington Redskins
28. Robert Meachem – New Orleans Saints
29. Antonio Bryant – Cincinnati Bengals
30. Wes Welker – New England Patriots
31. Donald Driver – Green Bay Packers
32. Dez Bryant – Dallas Cowboys
33. Jeremy Maclin – Philadelphia Eagles
34. T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Seattle Seahawks
35. Derrick Mason – Baltimore Ravens
36. Nate Burleson – Detroit Lions
37. Arrelious Benn – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
38. Kenny Britt – Tennessee Titans
39. Devin Hester – Chicago Bears
40. Julian Edelman – New England Patriots
41. Demaryius Thomas – Denver Broncos
42. Chris Chambers – Kansas City Chiefs
43. Lee Evans – Buffalo Bills
44. Braylon Edwards – New York Jets
45. Donnie Avery – St. Louis Rams
46. Eddie Royal – Denver Broncos
47. Justin Gage – Tennessee Titans
48. Santonio Holmes – New York Jets
49. Jacoby Jones – Houston Texans
50. Malcolm Floyd – San Diego Chargers
51. Roy Williams – Dallas Cowboys
52. Nate Washington – Tennessee Titans
53. Mario Manningham – New York Giants
54. Austin Collie – Indianapolis Colts
55. Johnny Knox – Chicago Bears
56. Devin Aromashodu – Chicago Bears
57. Josh Cribbs – Cleveland Browns
58. Kevin Walter – Houston Texans
59. Davone Bess – Miami Dolphins
60. Jerricho Cotchery – New York Jets

Thoughts:

• Reggie Wayne or Randy Moss?  Randy Moss or Reggie Wayne?  I’m going to have to go with Wayne this year, because in the early weeks, without the threat of Wes Welker, Moss could struggle (unless Julian Edelman establishes himself quickly).
• I love Roddy White for 2010.  He just keeps getting better and better, going from six TDs in ‘07 to seven in ‘08 to 11 last year.  He’s also had over 1,100 yards each of the past three seasons and defenses have to focus on Michael Turner, opening up the passing game. I look for him to potentially put up career marks across the board in 2010.
• For now I’m leaving Vincent Jackson up in the rankings, but if he ultimately holds out, clearly he’s going to plummet. We’re going to have to keep a close eye on the news, however.  If you are drafting now, I could see bypassing him for a safer option.  If he plays, I’d rather have him than DeSean Jackson, and you can read why by clicking here .
• Brandon Marshall may be playing with a new QB, but he’s already proven that that doesn’t matter.  We talked about his situation in detail, which you can read by clicking here .
• Marques Colston has proven how good he is, and with Drew Brees throwing you the ball, you have the opportunity to pile up the yards and TD.  He’s scored eight or more TDs in three of his four career years (he had five in the other, appearing in just 11 games), and that’s a trend that certainly should continue.
• Will Anquan Boldin be able to prove that he belongs in the spotlight and not in the shadow of Larry Fitzgerald?  Considering he was a Top 15 WR before the trade, being the main man in Baltimore shouldn’t change things.  For more on his new surroundings, check out our write up by clicking here .
• The Panthers’ Steve Smith’s broken arm knocks him down a few notches, but not dramatically.  The early word is that he’ll be ready for Week One, but you just never know.
• All Hines Ward does is produce, year after year.  Granted, his best years are behind him, but that doesn’t mean he’s not going to continue to be the rock of the Steelers’ offense.  With Santonio Holmes sent to New York, it puts even more pressure on Ward, as well as Mike Wallace, to produce.
• Santana Moss gets to play with the best QB he has for some time, possibly ever.  While he may be on the downside of his career, you have to expect a huge jump in his three TD in ‘09.  Would it be unthinkable to see him surpass 1,000 yards and challenge his career high of 10 TD?
• When healthy, we all know what Wes Welker can do.  That makes him worth gambling on and stashing, doesn’t it?
• With Mike Martz now the offensive coordinator in Chicago, look for them to possibly open things up a bit.  That gives all of their wide receivers a little bit extra in potential value, but Devin Hester is probably the biggest benefactor.
• The Tennessee Titans have a handful of wide receivers who can step up and have a big game any week.  That makes it extremely difficult to depend on any of them, doesn’t it?  Maybe someone finally steps up (i.e. Kevin Britt), but for now I would avoid drafting any of them to be my starter.
• The Broncos view Demaryius Thomas as a potential replacement for Brandon Marshall.  That statement alone makes him worth the gamble.
• The Jets have three capable wide receivers (Jerricho Cotchery, Braylon Edwards, and Santonio Holmes), but they are clearly a team that likes to try and run over you.  That has to make you wonder if any of the three will be worth using as a starter.

What are your thoughts on these rankings?  Who is ranked too high?  Who is ranked too low?

Don’t forget about our other rankings:

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com