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The San Diego Chargers capped off the 2009 regular season with 11 straight wins, on their way to a fourth straight AFC West division title. However, they couldn’t keep it going in the playoffs. They were upset by the New York Jets in the divisional round.
The Chargers still appear to be the most talented team in the West as we near the 2010 season, but just winning another division title will be a disappointment, for this team could make a trip to the Super Bowl.
Offense
Despite a pathetic running game, which ranked next to last in the league, the Chargers were one of the most explosive offensive teams in the NFL last season. With a 28.4 points per game scoring average, the Chargers boasted the fourth-best scoring offense in the league.
Pro Bowl quarterback Philip Rivers led the way in 2009, and his right arm will continue to be the focal point of the offense now that LaDainian Tomlinson is a New York Jet. Rivers threw for 4,254 yards and 28 scores with just nine interceptions, while finishing third in the NFL with a 104.4 quarterback rating.
Rivers benefits from having a pair of elite targets in the receiving corps. Antonio Gates is one of the premier pass catching tight ends in the NFL and Vincent Jackson is quickly emerging as a top notch wideout. This dynamic duo combined for 147 catches, 2,324 yards and 17 touchdowns last season.
The Chargers were the second-worst rushing team in the NFL in 2009, only gaining 88.9 yards per game. While it was tough to part ways with one of the greatest backs in NFL history, San Diego’s running game can’t get any worse. If anything, it should get better with the fresh legs of first round draft pick Ryan Matthews and a healthier offensive line.
Defense
The San Diego defense was solid in 2009, only allowing 20.0 points per game (11th in the NFL), but the Chargers aren’t satisfied. Their pass defense wasn’t consistent. In fact, they ranked No. 20 in the NFL against the pass, giving up 209.2 yards per game. The Chargers can easily decrease that number if outside linebacker Shawne Merriman returns to form.
Merriman didn’t look like himself in his first season back from a serious knee injury. He only tallied four sacks, after averaging 13.2 per year through his first three seasons.
The other Shaun, Shaun Phillips, continued his consistently good play with a seven-sack campaign. He has now recorded at least seven sacks each of the last five years. The Bolts are also looking for more production from Larry English in his second season.
Kevin Burnett and Stephen Cooper will join the aforementioned platoon to form a solid linebacker unit.
Big Luis Castillo leads the charge up front, with fellow vets Jacques Cesaire, Ryon Bingham, Travis Johnson, and Antonio Garay chipping in as well.
San Diego struggled to defend the pass last season, allowing 209.2 yards per game through the air (20th in the NFL). More production from Merriman or English will go a long way toward improving this area.
The Chargers shipped Antonio Cromartie to the Jets, but they like what they have in 2008 first round pick Antoine Cason. He joins shutdown corner Quentin Jammer to form a formidable cornerback duo.
Prediction: 1st AFC West
Look for the Bolts to win a fifth straight division title behind the strong right arm of Rivers. NFL lines makers have listed the Chargers as a big favorite to win the AFC West. Be sure to check out my 2010 NFL predictions to see which teams I have winning the other seven divisions.
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That big guy chasing after Brett Favre is Luis Castillo, the only constant on San Diego’s defensive line over the past two years.
He has played well and improved over his relatively short career, and the Chargers recognized that and gave him a large contract extension last year.
However, he finds himself entering an offseason where even his spot isn’t safe.
Defensive rotations during OTAs have been very fluid so far. Antonio Garay, Jacques Cesaire, and Ian Scott have all shared time with Castillo during drills so far.
While this interesting change may not mean a whole lot, it sure follows along with GM AJ Smith’s “new plan”.
Smith is holding everyone accountable this offseason. He is threatening to cut the salaries of RFAs Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil, and he has brought in players through draft and free agency to create stiff competition at every position on the field.
There is a lot of hype surrounding other backups on the field, from Jyles Tucker to Mike Tolbert to Malcolm Floyd, and all of this suggests a feeling within the Chargers that they are willing to move on and rely on their taxi squad.
Ultimately, I expect Luis Castillo to stick to the first line DE spot. The other positions, from the D-Line to Linebacker to D-Back, are all fluid.
Just for fun, then, here’s a projection of what the roster might look like at the end of the offseason
DE: Luis Castillo, Travis Johnson, Jacques Cesaire
DT: Cam Thomas, Vaughn Martin, Ian Scott
LB: Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips, Larry English, Jyles Tucker
ILB: Brandon Siler, Stephen Cooper, Kevin Burnett
CB: Antoine Cason, Quentin Jammer, Donald Strickland, Nate Vasher, Dante Hughes
S: Eric Weddle, Darrell Stuckey, Kevin Ellison
This will be a very interesting offseason. I expect the order of these names to change. A lot. Only time will tell what this team will look like come September.
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The San Diego Chargers have been one of the most talked about teams this off-season, and all the analysts and fans say the same things.
All the roster gaps have been filled. Ryan Mathews will single handedly revive our running game, Cam Thomas will plug up the middle, Donald Butler will be a future LB star, and Darrell Stuckey will make for a solid group of defensive backs.
All of that could prove to be totally true. I’ve watched tape on all of these guys, and I’m more excited about this draft class than I have been since the 2005 draft.
The problem is that there is a lot of volatility with the Chargers as a team and the AFC West as a division.
The Positive Side of Things
Ryan Mathews is the man. While people doubt his numbers because of the strength of competition at Fresno State, it is easy to see that he possesses everything he needs to break out as a pro. He has great vision, excellent body control and strength, and has top level speed that could make him a home run threat.
Cam Thomas is a beast. He fits the body type of a 3-4 DT perfectly, and could end up a dominant force in the middle, whether he will be sharing time with Vaughn Martin and Ogemdi Nwagbuo or switching in and out with Ian Scott.
Donald Butler likely won’t start, but he has a great opportunity to grow and learn. Kevin Burnett, Stephen Cooper, and Brandon Siler together make a complete ILB and could prove invaluable in Butler’s development.
Darrell Stuckey has a lot of potential. He didn’t see a whole lot of great competition at Kansas, but he has all the physical and mental tools necessary to compete for the starting spot with Kevin Ellison.
The team, as a whole, is stronger. With the departure of Antonio Cromartie comes a better locker room, and the addition of key players like Marcus Mason, Donald Strickland, and Nate Vasher brings veteran force to the defense and the offense.
The Dark Side of Things
This should really be called the dark sides of things, because the Chargers face a lot of issues that could ultimately prevent them from having the great season everyone expects from them.
1. Contract Holdouts: AJ Smith loves to play hardball, and he’s been doing a great job of it so far this off-season. Marcus McNeil, Shawne Merriman, Vincent Jackson, and Malcolm Floyd all remain unsigned as we move closer to training camp.
I expect Floyd and McNeil to sign very soon. McNeil is too important to wait, and signing Floyd establishes a base on which to build Vincent Jackson’s contract.
Jackson and Merriman, on the other hand, could drag this out for a long time. Merriman is very dissatisfied with his position in the eyes of the Chargers organization and may require a lot of convincing.
Jackson is also very annoyed. He is a top flight talent in the NFL, and he has played at that level at the pay level of a mid round draft pick. It’s time for San Diego to open up the checkbook here.
In the end, the length of these holdouts could have far reaching detrimental effects.
Holding out through camp could hurt team chemistry and game readiness. Holding out into the season could destroy early season morale and hurt the Chargers’ record.
2. Conference Competition: As strange as it is to admit, the Oakland Raiders have done a lot for themselves in the off-season, and have put themselves in the right place to take second place, if not challenge for the title.
Oakland addressed all its needs. They picked up a stud LB in Rolando McClain, a promising run stopper in DT Lamarr Houston, two OTs with star potential in Jared Veldheer and Bruce Campbell, and a great return man/speed out in Jacoby Ford.
The biggest add, though, was Jason Campbell. With a competent quarterback behind the wheel, the Oakland Raiders can take advantage of talented receivers Louis Murphy and Chaz Schilens.
The jury is still out on the rest of the AFC West, though, considering the high risk/high reward nature of their drafts.
Kansas City created a scary defensive backfield with Eric Berry and Javier Arenas, and added a dynamic offensive weapon in RB Dexter McCluster.
Denver took a shot in the First round on both Demaryius Thomas (WR) and Tim Tebow (QB), whose futures could make or break Josh McDaniels’ head coaching career.
3. (Lack of) Vetern Presence: As much as it hurt, everyone recognized that it was time to part ways with San Diego legend Ladainian Tomlinson, because he simply wasn’t as effective as he used to be.
It was the same with DT Jamal Williams. He was the rock around which San Diego’s defensive line was built, and it will be odd not having him around.
The hardest part about these losses is that they will not be able to groom their replacements. Ryan Mathews will have to come in relatively green and take the majority of the snaps.
Cam Thomas has no one to learn from, and that could make his transition tough, considering that defensive line between college and pro is one of the hardest positions to make the transition to.
4. Rookie Volatility: Simply put, the rookies could be everything we expect them to be, or nothing. If one of them gets injured or one of them doesn’t perform like they were expected to, it could prove dangerous to the Chargers.
The Verdict
The Chargers’ season is up in the air right now. If holdouts end and the rookies perform well, we could be seeing a Super Bowl run.
On the other hand, if the holdouts last into the regular season or the rookies don’t step up, we could see something that would terrify any Chargers fan.
If things don’t go the right way, the Oakland Raiders could win the AFC West.
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This season, the Chargers will set sail into a new year like a fully loaded battleship. And their quest to become World Champions is now as strong as it’s ever been.
The Chargers have a reputation of being a team whose talent can go into battle with anybody, but somehow run out of steam during critical battles. It’s one man’s job to fix and change that reputation, and the only way to do that is to bring home the Super Bowl trophy.
Building the Warship, A.J. Smith style:
The Chargers are well known for marooning great players on distant shores with ringless hands. Dan Fouts, Charlie Joiner, Wes Chandler, Junior Seau, Gill Byrd, and LaDainian Tomlinson have all met this fate.
Suddenly, the Chargers have taken a turn for aggressive waters, making the necessary cuts and additions to their cargo to make a Super Bowl run more possible than it has ever been.
The Crew on Board:
Commanding Officer:
Norv Turner.
Say what you will, but he is the winningest Charger head coach of all time. Not Sid Gilman, not Bobby Ross, not Don Coryell. He has become more aggressive, and the Chargers have never had a fuller playbook.
Executive Officer:
Ron Rivera.
Yes, he is the best defensive coordinator the Chargers have had. Since his tenure with the Chargers, he has not only turned down three head coaching jobs, but he has brought the Chargers’ defense from 25th to eighth overall. With new weapons in his arsenal, I look for the defense to get even better.
At The Helm:
Philip Rivers.
He is an elite quarterback. After four seasons as a starter he has a win percentage of 70.9, second best in Chargers’ history, and a 97.5 passer rating, third best ever for the team. Yes, he will win the big one. Now he’s finally got the guns to support him.
Gunners Mates:
Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, Vincent Jackson, Seyi Ajirotutu, Legedu Naanee.
All of whom are freakishly big, athletic, and strong. All have the potential to become Pro Bowlers. The air show is in full effect!
Deck Force: Ryan Matthews, Darren Sproles, and true blocking fullback Cory Jackson.
Prediction: The Chargers leapfrog from 31st to top five in the run game. That will set up the best balance of power the Chargers’ offense has ever had.
Vessel Security Officers: Marcus Mcneill, Jeromey Clary, Nick Hardwick, Kris Dielman. (All Pro Bowlers.)
The Rotation: Brandyn Dombrowski, Scott Mruczkowski, and Louis Vasquez will be used, and are all probably good enough to start anywhere else in the league. Nic Richmond and several rookies will step in to provide competition to the starters.
The Defense:
On Corners: Quentin Jammer, Antoine Cason, and Nathan Vasher will provide solid pass defense. Complacency, inept tackling, and bad attitude has been jettisoned to New York.
The loose cannon:
Shawne Merriman.
After a troll through trade waters, and coming through unbitten, I imagine Merriman will turn into a shark in open waters. Give him a little money, and watch the guy fight to save his career and image.
The Chargers have also signed linebackers Boris Lee, Mike Nixon, and Donald Butler. They will provide depth, youth, energy, and speed. With Larry English, Stephen Cooper, Antoine Applewhite, Shaun Phillips, Jyles Tucker, Kevin Burnett, and James Holt, the Chargers have NEVER had a more complete group.
With Darrell Stuckey, Steve Gregory,Paul Oliver Eric Weddle, Kevin Ellison, and C.J. Spillman used in a steady rotation, the safeties will be a strong group as well.
Rivera is a master of using everyone he has in his arsenal effectively. So the sight of the exhausted defensive lineman with his hands on his hips, sucking air, is a sight unseen on the Chargers defense.
The Operations Specialists:
David Binn, Long snapper. Best in the business.
Mike Scifres, Punter. Can kick with the best.
Nate Kaeding. Most accurate kicker in NFL history.
(Insurance policy in case of meltdown: Nick Novak.)
As a Charger fan, I’ve never seen them as complete as they are right now. So once again, the Chargers’ vessel sets sail on another Super Bowl quest.
Hats off to A.J. Smith, who has assembled the best Charger team to take the field yet. If this team falls short of the Lombardi Trophy, it’s no fault of his.
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In truest of form, the San Diego Chargers again led a wild goose chase through the offseason. Let’s see what pieces of the puzzle have been put in place.
Tight end- Check
Quarterbacks- Check
Wide Receivers-Check
Cornerback- Check
Nose Tackle- Check
Wow, if this were February we’d be all set. Come May, we have linebacker issues.
Lights on, Lights out? Shawne Merriman, that is the question.
My say is, let’s keep the guy. Give him an extra million.
We all know he’s playing for his new agent anyway. Make him sweat it out. If that sweat is in a Charger uniform, we benefit, and maybe see a lights out sack dance or two.
As far as Kevin Burnett—$3.5 mil, no thanks. Brandon Siler, Larry English, and Donald Butler are young, quick, and strong.
I sense a trend. Yes sir, this is exactly what Ron Rivera wants.
Give us your poor, tired, and injured? No thanks, send them to the statue of Liberty.
The one thing I do know is Rivera is a master of rotating and using the young, hungry and unpopular. He’s a genius of a scout who sees players two years into the future.
Will Merriman and Burnett play for the Bolts in 2011, or 2010 for that matter? Probably not, but Mike Nixon and Boris Lee will.
The Hit Squads replacement Killers:
Well, they fit the role. Big, strong, hardnosed players. They’re ready to make the big hits, stop running backs, and hopefully make a sack now and then, but these guys are pretty interesting, and for undrafted free agents, worth introductions.
Mike Nixon:
A 6’3, 230 lbs, outside linebacker who started 31 games at Arizona State. Nixon had 253 tackles, 25 for loss, eight interceptions, and six forced fumbles. Yeah, he fits the role, but here’s the interesting part.
Nixon was an academic All-American, and was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers. That’s right, he actually played four seasons in the outfield and first base.
We’ve already established the fact that I know “nada” about scouting, but flying out of left field into a Chargers backfield with a post graduate degree has to be impressive to anybody. I hope to see him do well.
Boris Lee:
Okay, honestly I don’t have any clue how this guy became an undrafted free agent.
When I first heard of the Chargers signing him to a two-year contract I was surprised, amazed, and actually upset. But then I read the stats on the guy and really don’t see how it is all possible. He’s pretty freakin’ good!
Unless the Chargers went Mob boss style and issued threats to 31 other teams, it really makes no sense how Boris Lee lands in bolts under a two-year contract.
As a fan, I’m thrilled about it. Can he replace Merriman? Well statistically, yes, but you be the judge. Here’s the rap sheet:
Boris Lee:
Troy University
6’1″ 245 LBS
4.8 40-yard dash
plays ILB and OLB
33 inch vertical
131 Tackles (Last Season)
13 Interceptions
So with that in mind, why did he go undrafted? That’s where I had to dig deeper.
Last season, Lee had horrible problems with his tonsils. They swelled out of control not allowing Lee to swallow. Because of this, he lost 50 pounds. Lee played most of the season at 195 pounds; not exactly what a scout looks for in a Linebacker.
Since February he has healed his medical problems, put his weight back on, and some how, some way, found his way to the Chargers contract table.
Well, as it turns out, it looks like we have pretty good talent scouts after all. Welcome aboard Mike Nixon and Boris Lee.
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