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Every football fan already know about the skill of Brady, Manning and Brees. Them, plus Schaub, Rodgers and Rivers will all have excellent seasons once again.
It’s easy to predict success for those guys.
However, who are going to be the quarterbacks who succeed far beyond their expectations.
Think Rodgers before the 2008 season when he was filling in for the departed Favre. Or perhaps Matt Schaub when he was traded from Atlanta to Houston and given the reins to the offense.
Here are five quarterbacks who will surprise us this season
1) Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles
Kevin Kolb, already getting a crazy amount of attention, is poised to have a breakout season similar to Aaron Rodgers in 2008. Both players are following embattled quarterbacks that their team’s had grown tired with.
Kolb has great talent around him with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy. I don’t have great confidence in McCoy but we’ll see how he does in his first full season as a starter.
Kolb’s interception rates will be a little high in his first season. He’s still learning the position. But I have a feeling he’ll have the best statistical season out of everybody in the NFC East (yes, better then Romo and Manning).
It won’t be enough to get Philly to the playoffs though.
2) Charlie Whitehurst, Seattle Seahawks
Raise your hand if anybody thinks Matt Hasselbeck will survive this season.
Nobody’s hand should be raised.
Charlie Whitehurt . . . nobody knew too much about the guy when he was traded from San Diego last off-season to Seattle. Whitehurst will prove to be a sneaky good guy.
Whitehurst will fill in nicely in the Seattle offense: Mike Williams (USC) begins his comeback to the NFL this season, Golden Tate will be a terrific athlete, John Carlson is a reliable TE and Justin Forsett is an underrated RB.
3) Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Bucs
At first, I thought it to be a mistake that Tampa Bay was rebuilding around Josh Freeman. After all, when watching Freeman play at Kansas State, he looked like one of the weaker QB’s in that conference — especially compared to Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy and even Zach Robinson .
But Freeman surprised me a great deal last season. I found it to be poised and smart and accurate. “Sports Illustrated” wrote a good article about him which detailed his brightness and his eagerness to learn the game.
Freeman didn’t have any skill around him last year. But now he gets to rebuild with the double wide receiver potential of Mike Williams (rookie, Syracuse) and Arrelious Benn (rookie, Illinois). Williams and Benn are going to be standouts for years to come, and Freeman will be the one to take them there.
4) Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins
Although one might think that I am only putting Chad Henne on this list because of Brandon Marshall, that isn’t the reason. Henne would be on here whether or not Marshall was on the team or not.
Henne is a strong armed and smart quarterback and he will lead Miami to first place in the AFC East. Of course, Marshall helps out a lot — but it’s going to be all up to the quarterback on this one.
After struggling a bit at the beginning of the last season (in his defense, he was thrown in a year too early when Chad Pennington went down), Henne finished the year very well . . . that momentum will continue.
5) Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals
Matt Leinart will have a good season.
There, I said it.
I am putting myself on the record.
But in all seriousness, there is no reason for Leinart not to perform very well this year and to lead Arizona back to the playoffs. He has the best wide receiver in the game in Fitzgerald as his major target, and a terrific two-headed running game with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower.
Leinart was shoved into the NFL right after college, and he was given an unfair disadvantage at a chance as the starter. Now he has two years of watching and learning from Kurt Warner.
He has the tools and the skill and the play makers around him to have a great year. The choice is up to him whether or not to succeed or not. But I have a feeling he figures it out.
I write a weekly mailbag.You can email me anything sports or pop culture related. It is published every Friday. Email questions to sherwoodanderson@rocketmail.com
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Heading into the 2010 NFL season, the secondary will be considered the weakness of the Dolphins defense. Karlos Dansby has upgraded the linebacking unit, while first-rounder Jared Odrick will pack a punch off the defensive front.
Last year the Dolphins routinely got beat deep, with two rookies starting at corner for most of the year, and free safety Gabril Wilson’s inability to make tackles in the open field.
Secondary coach Todd Bowles spoke of how they had to change that.
“We’ve got to play smarter, and play with a little bit more experience,” Bowles said. “It was a culmination of things, and that can’t happen regardless of whether the unit is young or old. This is still football. The golden rule is to keep the guy in front of you, and they’ve got to understand that.”
Cornerback Vontae Davis hopes to change the perception after what could be a giant year for the second-year man out of Illinois. He has had rave reviews thus far in the offseason, and has all the physical tools to become a top-flight cornerback. Going up against Brandon Marshall everyday in practice can only speed up his development.
With Davis essentially locked in to start on one side, that leaves a battle between Will Allen and Sean Smith on the other.
Smith still appears to have the advantage with Allen not completely 100 percent after his battle back from a torn ACL sustained in week seven of last season. Regardless of who wins the “starting job,” both cornerbacks figure to get a good chunk of playing time and might be inserted into the starting lineup on a match-up by match-up basis.
Smith has unusual size and length for a corner (6’3″) and could be used more against the bigger, physical receivers the NFL has to offer, while Allen could be utilized against the league’s smaller, quicker wideouts.
Jason Allen is in the mix as a reserve corner with rookie Nolan Carrol pushing him for fourth string on the depth chart.
At safety Yeremiah Bell has been steady on the strong side for a few years now and is one of the leaders of the Dolphins defense.
The inexperienced Chris Clemons is the favorite to start at free safety, and brings excellent range to the position with his imposing speed.
Rookie Reshad Jones and Tyrone Culver will likely be the backup safeties. Culver will be used much more in game situations next year as he has some game experience. Jones, a big hitter in his days playing for Georgia, hasn’t played well in training camp thus far.
How good the secondary becomes this year might ultimately depend on the pass rush up front. If they can get consistent pressure on the quarterback it will make life in the secondary a great deal easier.
It’s time for the Miami secondary to step it up and take this Dolphins defense to an entirely different level.
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I want to share a revelation revealed to me regarding a trend occurring in the NFL as we speak.
After completing my 2010 top ten NFL wide receiver tandem’s list, it dawned on me that I had three rookies listed on it.
After getting a lot of flack from fans for the rookies being on the list, I decided to do some research on the matter, and that is when my intuition came to fruition.
Two awesome rookie wide receivers made a huge splash last season: Vikings wideout Percy Harvin (No. 12) and Steelers receiver Mike Wallace (No. 17).
The NFL draft has produced at least three rookie wide receiver sensations for the past three seasons. Last season, however, that number more than doubled. Add to that, one of the rookie wide receivers, Harvin, also happened to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
My point is simple: two times is a coincidence, three times is a trend. This is especially the case when the third time you find the trend going from three rookie receivers a year to seven rookie receivers stepping up their game and earn a spot in the top half of the league’s best tandems.
Here are the three rookie wide receivers of 2007 NFL Draft:
Steve Smith: 11.5 yards per reception, 1,002 reception yards, seven touchdowns
Dwayne Bowe: 14.2 yards per reception, 995 reception yards, five touchdowns
Anthony Gonzalez: 15.6 yards per reception, 576 reception yards, three touchdowns
Here are the three rookie wide receiver of 2008 NFL Draft:
Eddie Royal: 10.8 yards per reception, 980 reception yards, five touchdowns
DeSean Jackson: 14.7 yards per reception, 912 reception yards, two touchdowns
Donnie Avery: 12.5 yards per reception, 589 reception yards, five touchdowns
Royal was actually sixth in receptions, and then when you calculate all his special teams returns and rushing yards into the equation, things get really stupid in regards to any attempt to write off a wide receiver simply because he is a rookie. Desean Jackson also killed it with his special teams returns.
Now here are the seven receivers who jumped into the top 64 last season, making them eligible bachelors for tandems, considering there are 32 teams in the league.
Mike Wallace: 19.4 yards per reception, 756 reception yards, six TD’s
Percy Harvin: 13.2 yards per reception, 790 reception yards, six TD’s
Jeremy Maclin: 13.8 yards per reception, 773 reception yards, four TD’s
Hakeem Nicks: 16.8 yards per reception, 790 reception yards, six TD’s
Kenny Britt: 16.7 yards per reception, 701 reception yards, three TD’s
Johnny Knox: 11.7 yards per reception, 527 reception yards, five TD’s
Mohamed Massaquoi: 18.4 yards per reception, 624 reception yards, three TD’s
This, of course, brings us to the 2010 NFL Draft. My question is, which of these receivers will jump into the league’s best WR tandems from the rookie class this season?
Patrick Crayton set the bar last season for the weakest link stats-wise, as far as the 2010 top 10 NFL WR tandems last season.
Patrick Crayton: 16.8 yard average, 622 receiving yards, five touchdowns
How many of these wide receivers from this rookie draft class will break Crayton’s mark and emerge as part of the top 10 tandems in 2010?
Be sure to check out the highlight reels linked to each of the Rookies’ names!
22 Broncos Demaryius Thomas WR Georgia Tech
24 Cowboys Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma State
39 Buccaneers Arrelious Benn WR Illinois
60 Seahawks Golden Tate WR Notre Dame
77 Titans Damian Williams WR USC
78 Panthers Brandon LaFell WR LSU
82 Steelers Emmanuel Sanders WR SMU
84 Bengals Jordan Shipley WR Texas
87 Broncos Eric Decker WR Minnesota
88 Cardinals Andre Roberts WR The Citadel
89 Panthers Armanti Edwards QB/WR Appalachian State
90 Patriots Taylor Price WR Ohio
99 Rams Mardy Gilyard WR Cincinnati
101 Buccaneers Mike Williams WR Syracuse
107 Bills Marcus Easley WR Connecticut
108 Raiders Jacoby Ford WR Clemson
156 Ravens David Reed WR Utah
159 Eagles Riley Cooper WR Florida
165 Falcons Kerry Meier WR Kansas
177 Browns Carlton Mitchell WR South Florida
191 Bengals Dezmon Briscoe WR Kansas
195 Steelers Antonio Brown WR Central Michigan
206 San Francisco 49ers Kyle Williams WR Arizona State
219 Redskins Terrence Austin WR UCLA
222 Titans Marc Mariani WR Montana
255 Lions Tim Toone WR Weber State
Since you can only vote once in the poll for the top 10 candidate, be sure to put your list of potential receivers you think can make it into the top 64 receivers in the league down in the comment section.
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Shiver me timbers!
It’s time to sit back, grab some grog, and examine the scallywags from Tampa Bay in ye latest olde edition of the dynasty team capsules.
Tampa Bay is a motley crew of young pirates who are ready to pillage the landscape of the NFC South. Young dynasty swabbies may pass right over this youthful bunch, but they risk finding themselves walking the plank later. Well-experienced sea dogs take the time to analyze this crew’s long-term potential to ensure they don’t leave their dynasty ship at the bottom of Davy Jones’ locker.
Cap’n Morris’ Bucs ended last year with a record of 3-13 and looked more like “The Good Ship Lollipop” than the “Jolly Roger,” but they showed some flashes of improvement. Let’s put them under the spyglass to see if any of these doubloons can be transformed into fantasy football treasure.
Players in Their Prime
Kellen Winslow, TE
It’s tough to put Winslow into a category. On one hand, he led the Bucs with 77 receptions for 884 yards and five TDs last year. On the other, he’s always a huge injury risk. In the end, Winslow is right in his window of opportunity for fantasy production. Keep in mind his career is destined to be short, though. Those knees are just not going to hold up for five or six more seasons.
Rising Players
Josh Freeman, QB
Many of you have read our featured article on Josh Freeman. He’s poised for a breakout season and has all the physical tools to be a very successful QB. Freeman has a powerful arm, large frame, good mobility, and a solid work ethic. That’s worthwhile combination for a QB. He should easily improve upon his 10 touchdown passes and flirt with his first 3,000-yard season in 2010. He’s squarely on the “buy now” list.
Arrelious Benn, WR (Rookie)
At 6’1” and 219 pounds, Benn is just shy of the “prototypical” desired size for a WR. What gave him an edge over most college defenders was his strength. He carries his weight well and his muscle mass certainly doesn’t impede his speed or quickness. His 38 receptions, 490 yards, and two TDs last year at Illinois is disturbing, but much of that can be attributed to horrible QB play from Juice Williams. He has the ability and opportunity to make an impact as soon as 2010.
Mike Williams, WR (Rookie)
Now here’s a fun guy to take a chance on! Williams’ talent is undeniable. Take out his checkered history of off the field incidents, and he’s a first-round pick in the NFL Draft based on incredible talent. Unfortunately, every person who takes a chance on Williams will be navigating some stormy seas. He could easily be the steal of the 2010 Draft or out of the league in three years. From all indications, he’s had a wonderful spring and summer, leading many to believe the Buccaneers are much closer to offensive relevance than some would previously believe.
Players with Falling Values
Derrick Ward, RB
Ward was a huge disappointment last year when many expected him to take over as the lead dog in the backfield. Instead, the resurgent Cadillac Williams had nearly twice the carries of Ward. Combine that with his age and Ward is dropping like an anchor.
Maurice Stovall, WR
Stovall was a major sleeper out of Notre Dame a couple of years ago. Unfortunately, the transition to the NFL has been a tough one. He did catch 24 passes last year for 366 yards, but he’s proven to be nothing special.
Michael Clayton, WR
Clayton is one of the biggest fantasy football disappointments of the last decade. After an extremely promising start (80 receptions, 1,193 yards, seven TDs in his 2004 rookie season), he’s followed up with 141 receptions, 1,743 yards, and three TDs combined in the last five seasons. That type of cataclysmic dropoff for a young WR is almost unprecedented. It’s time to jump ship.
Sleeper
Cadillac Williams, RB
It’s pretty unusual to list a former fantasy football hero as a sleeper, but the boot fits here. Cadillac enjoyed a fine 2009 with 823 yards on 211 carries. That’s nowhere near No. 1 RB numbers, but he’s being drafted way too late in startup dynasty leagues. In the recent dynasty experts league, he was taken at #204 overall. I see him as a valuable No. 3 RB for the next couple of seasons, worthy of a pick at least four rounds sooner. He’s a player you can get on the cheap now who could help this season. Cap’n Morris has gone on record saying the offense will run through Caddy.
Super Sleeper
Josh Johnson, QB
Something bad would have to happen to Freeman for Johnson to have value, but this San Diego product has talent and showed some of it in spot duty last year. Rumor had it more than a few teams attempted to acquire him during the draft and were turned down. Add to that the jettisons of Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich, and you could have a Matt Schaub-like backup QB situation in the future.
Summary
Aye, the Buccaneers are a bunch of young, salty dogs looking to develop into worthy pirates. Mining through this group won’t leave you with scurvy as there is often more treasure in fantasy football than in all the pirate’s loot on Treasure Island. Look closely, as the horizon for some of these players isn’t at the edge of the world.
Bring me one noggin of rum now, won’t you, matey?
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At this point, Raider Nation can breathe some fresh air, because the climate in Oakland seems to be on the upswing now that JaMarcus Russell is gone. Nevertheless, the negative opinions of Russell do not justify false information from being propagated.
Even though Raider Nation may disagree on the broad topics related to JaMarcus Russell, I think we can all agree that ESPN will make stuff up about the Raiders. In part, because the people at ESPN dislike being locked out by Al Davis.
ESPN however, cannot even get a simple story right. After the Raiders released Russell, Bill Williamson of ESPN’s AFC West blog reported that Russell had been released.
Seems simple right? Well, apparently the ESPN people may need to tie their mittens to their vests, because Williamson then added that Russell has, “the worst winning percentage of any quarterback who was drafted No. 1. He became the quickest quarterback who was the No. 1 pick to be released by his drafting team.”
It really does bother me that ESPN would so blatantly lie about Russell, and in doing so, lie about the history of the NFL. I should also note that Williamson is a former reporter for The Denver Post, where he covered the arch-rival Broncos.
I will logically break down the statements made by Williamson:
A) He has the worst winning percentage.
B) He is a quarterback.
C) He is a number one pick in the NFL Draft.
D) He has had the “quickest release”
OR: A + B + C / D + A
Meaning that, Williamson used conjunctions to create his synthetic trivia of no relevance. Note also that no mention of “modern era” or “since the NFL-AFL merger” was made, therefore, the logic of the statement “of any quarterback” opened the door to any quarterback selected first overall, going back to the first NFL draft.
The following is a list of quarterbacks taken first overall in the NFL draft with worse winning percentages that Russell, and whom played less time with the drafting team.
The first five quarterbacks fit all of the criteria established by Williamson, while the last one, Jeff George, merely had a worse winning percentage with the Colts at .200 compared to Russell’s winning percentage of .280 with the Raiders.
Angelo Bertelli, Bobby Garrett, Randy Duncan, and Terry Baker stand out because I think they transcend NFL history.
The now-defunct Los Angeles Dons of the All-American Football Conference selected quarterback Angelo Bertelli with the number one pick in 1946 and, in effect, passed on Hall of Fame quarterback, Otto Graham.
Randy Duncan signed with a CFL team for more money (that sounds familiar), rather than play for Green Bay. By doing so, Duncan missed the boat to play for Vince Lombardi.
At the time that Bobby Garrett was selected, scouting was sparse. After the Browns made Garrett the number one pick in 1954, they found out that he stuttered. The Browns then traded Garrett to Green Bay for six players; Green Bay, not knowing about the stuttering. As a signal caller, Garrett could not pronounce the letter “s”.
The Rams would select Terry Baker in 1963 after he won the Heisman Trophy. Baker would attempt only 21 passes before being released in 1966, because Baker did not fit the system.
(I gathered the following information from NFL.com and sports-reference.com , as well as ESPN and a St. Louis newspaper).
Legend:
G = total games played
GS = games started
George Cafego, QB, Tennessee
QB taken 1st overall in 1940 by Washington Redskins
served in WW2 / in part because he was not succeeding
G 23 (with team that drafted him)
GS 13 (with team that drafted him)
Angelo Bertelli, QB, Notre Dame
Taken first overall by Los Angeles Dons in 1946
Left NFL for Marine Corps
Passed on Otto Graham of Northwestern
G 16
GS 5
Bobby Garrett, QB, Stanford
Taken first overall in 1954 draft by Cleveland Browns
problem with stuttering; traded to Green Bay
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=list/050418/draftdays
G 9
GS 0
Randy Duncan, QB, Iowa
Taken first overall in 1959 draft by Green Bay Packers
Played 2 years in CFL for more money; in effect, lost chance to play for Vince Lombardi
Later signed with Dallas Texans (now Kansas City Chiefs)
G 14
GS 2
Terry Baker, QB, Oregon State
Taken first overall in 1963 draft by Los Angeles Rams
Won 1962 Heisman Trophy / released by Rams in 1966
21 passing attempts / did not fit scheme
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/berniemiklasz/story/B00D6280CC052ECF862576FB0012ABE8?OpenDocument
G 18
GS 1
Jeff George, QB, Illinois
Taken first overall in 1990 draft by Indianapolis Colts
W/L: 14/35 with Colts
Worse winning percentage than Russell at .200, compared to .280, but George, technically, played more games with Colts
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