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Well, I just spent a nice, long week in the very northern parts of Idaho, up next to the Canadian border, completely away from news, cell phones, and Internet.
When I got back, I enjoyed reading about Brett Favre’s retirement (again), Knowshon Moreno/Correll Buckhalter’s injuries, LenDale White’s triumphant (and somewhat confusing) return to Colorado, and most importantly, Elvis Dumervil’s ripped pectoral.
I guess Josh McDaniels is pushing them too hard in training camp, because a lot of key players are getting injured.
Or, perhaps, the Denver Broncos simply have a lot of key players.
I know Dumervil is making a lot of money on his new contract and any injury to such a star athlete is less than desirable; a guy like Elvis cannot be replaced. But he did emerge just last year in Mike Nolan’s defense. I wasn’t sold on him as a product just yet, and I thought his contract was generous.
If I had read that Champ Bailey was out, I would have panicked. Likewise for Brian Dawkins.
Those two are guys the Broncos defense absolutely cannot survive without. I’ve watched what happens when you take those types of leaders off of the field, and it isn’t pretty.
But Dumervil? Well, Denver likely won’t get the same amount of pressure. Or they might, considering the improved defensive line.
The Broncos linebacking corps is pretty stout these days, in my opinion. I like Robert Ayers to break out this year, and sliding Mario Haggan back to the outside isn’t too difficult. The anchor is DJ Williams, as it should be (and would have been even with Elvis), and there are other players who can step in.
Are they going to record the most sacks in the NFL?
I sincerely doubt it. But I also doubt that is what will make or break the Denver Broncos’ season. Let’s not forget that on the way to Dumervil’s breakout sack season the Broncos still managed to go 8-8. Sacks help, but one guy’s totals will not win a football game.
This is a chance for everyone to take a big step back, take a couple of deep breaths, and stop making the Denver Broncos about any particular individual player. Elvis Dumervil’s loss is unfortunate at best, but the cohesion of the team as a whole is what will win the Broncos football games.
After all, guys like Jay Cutler might be great, record-setting players, but he has never had a winning season in his NFL career.
A player puts people in the stands, but a team wins a championship.
Elvis Dumervil wasn’t above that rule. I’m sure all Broncos fans are wishing him a speedy recovery and will be happy to welcome him back when he is ready to play, but for now, the team is moving on.
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221 of the 240 2010 draft class have been signed, and yet still no Ryan Mathews. Okay, wev’e all waited patiently enough.
15 of the first rounders have already signed. including:
4. Washington Redskins —Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma—Signed (6 years, $60M max; $36.75M guaranteed)
5. Kansas City Chiefs—Eric Berry, S, Tennessee—Agreed to Terms (6 years, $60M; $34M guaranteed)
8. Oakland Raiders—Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama—Signed (5 years, $30M/$40M max; $23M guaranteed)
11. San Francisco 49ers—Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers—Signed (5 years, $26.5M; $15.954M guaranteed)
13. Philadelphia Eagles—Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan—Signed (5 years, financial terms undisclosed)
17. San Francisco 49ers—Mike Iupati, G/T, Idaho—Signed (5 years, $18.25M max; $10.8M guaranteed)
19. Atlanta Falcons—Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri—Signed (5 years, $17.54M max; $10.4M guaranteed)
20. Houston Texans—Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama—Signed (5 years, $13.1M; $10.35M guaranteed)
23. Green Bay Packers—Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa—Signed (5-years, $14.75M max; $8.76M guaranteed)
24. Dallas Cowboys—Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State—Signed (5-years, $11.8M; $8.375M guaranteed)
25. Denver Broncos—Tim Tebow, QB, Florida—Signed (5 years, $11.25M/$33M max; $8.7M guaranteed)
27. New England Patriots—Devin McCourty, CB, Rutgers—Signed (5 years, $10M/$13.2 max; $7.825M guaranteed)
28. Miami Dolphins—Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State—Signed (5 years, $13.07M max; $7.133M guaranteed)
32. New Orleans Saints—Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State —Agreed to Terms (5 years, financial terms undisclosed)
So what is Mathews waiting for training camp? Nah, already missed its opening day. Pre-season? Could be, its just two weeks away, certainly he wont need any time learning the playbook before then.
Oh , I know, he’s waiting for C.J Spiller the number 9 pick of the Buffalo Bills to sign. Just three different slots in the draft separate the two , and same position. Oh, and guess what, A.J Smith is loving it!
Wanna know why?
1. Primarily because the Bills are cheaper than he is.
Their total annual salary last year was just $ 111,956,000 , and that was with Terrell Owens Drawing $6,250,000 off that.
A guy in similar position to Spiller is RB Marshawn Lynch. He is a first round pick of the Bills 2007 draft class. He was contracted for $632,000 total salary in 2009. Traditionally a very poor rate for a first round running back.
So when the Bills drafted CJ Spiller, Smith must have turned cartwheels. Had a big spender such as the Dolphins or Redskins selected him, Smith would have backed way off, so the price would drop.
Now it makes perfect sense to me why Smith went totally berserk in his pursuit of Mathews. It also makes perfect sense as to why Mathews has not signed yet—because Spiller hasn’t.
When should these signings happen? Interestingly enough, both the Bills and the Chargers started their training camps this week. Same for the Detroit Lions, who signed the other first round running back Jahvid Best.
Obviously all three remain unsigned, just waiting to play follow the leader.
It will definately be a domino effect when the first guy signs. However, never underestimate the greed of an agent when millions of dollars are on the line.
Do we have a measuring stick for Mathews? The closest we can get would be Knowshon Moreno. Moreno was drafted last year by the Broncos in the 14th overall pick of the draft. His contract was 5 years, 23 million.
The best estimate I could predict for Mathews would be a 5 year/25 million dollar contract. However, If Spiller signs for less, The number drops.
Sadly, this bargaining ground has become par for the course, and has overridden rookies getting to training camp, which used to be considered a vital component. Now its secondary.
The other rounds go much smoother. Here is a breakdown for you of the 2nd-7th draft picks this year.
Round 2 30 of 32 signed
Round 3 32 of 34 signed
Round 4 33 of 33 signed
Round 5 38 of 38 signed
Round 6 38 of 38 signed
round 7 50 of 50 signed
So, who’s the first to jump? My guess would be Detroit. They also have to sign another first rounder Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is a much bigger fish to fry. He was the number 2 overall selection of the draft.
Spiller will sign with Buffalo quickly after, because the Bills don’t have any contract disputes.
The Chargers are in contract disputes with three high profile players. So, they will have a real clear cut outline of Mathews contract price right after Spiller signs. Is it worth waiting for? At this point, absolutely!
If Spiller reaches pre-season in two weeks unsigned, Smith will have to cave in and be first to sign. But right now, he’s looking at saving some bucks. We all know A.J!
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I was given the task of evaluating the free safeties, and strong safeties for the 2011 NFL draft for DraftTek.com. The “Tekkies” wanted rankings for each player’s primary position, and rankings for each player’s secondary position.
So, off I went on my strong and free safety stats hunt. Spreadsheets were constructed. 64 players were evaluated on 2009 tackling skills and ball skills. The free safeties and strong safeties were segregated according to their positions. I ended up with 28 strong safeties, and 36 free safeties. That was the relatively easy part.
Initially, I assumed that I would find that the “measurable” statistics (height, weight, and 40 times) would indicate that the strong safeties would be the larger players. Also, I assumed that the tackling stats (total tackles, tackles for a loss, sacks, and forced fumbles) would translate more closely to the skill sets of outside linebackers.
The free safeties, I assumed, would be somewhat smaller in stature, have faster 40 times, and would dominate in ball skills (interceptions, and passes defended). I thought that the free safeties would have the skill sets of cornerbacks.
After the stats were fleshed out, I sat there in dismay. None of my assumptions were valid.
I set out to study the safeties in depth in order to determine where my assumptions went so terribly awry. It was off to Safety 101.
I concluded that the game had changed.
Traditionally, the strong safeties were larger then their free safety counterparts by necessity. They needed to match up physically with TE’s, and RB’s. A strong safety would typically play 5-7 yards off the line of scrimmage.
Free safeties were the “center fielders,” playing a full 20 yards off the line of scrimmage, roughly in the center of the field. The free safeties were smaller in stature, but were ferocious hitters. They needed great closing speed on both running and passing downs.
Then came the paradigm shift.
The traditional roles of safeties were relegated into obscurity by a number of changes, starting with league policy.
First, came the league’s crackdown on illegal contact. Helmet to helmet contact was singled out for harsh punishment. The free safeties could no longer go “head hunting”. strong safeties couldn’t adapt either. Suspicious contact was largely construed to be illegal contact. A blizzard of yellow flags ensued.
This caused the offenses to go vertical. Three- and four-receiver sets proliferated, along with several variations of the “spread” offense. Defensive backfields became exploitable as scoring soared.
The value of safeties in the draft was depressed for decades.
Defensive coaches had to come up with countermeasures. Many adopted the 3-4 Defense, and even those teams still running the 4-3 defensive scheme would throw in a lot of 3-4 “looks” in order to be more deceptive.
Disruption by deception became the mantra of defensive coordinators. The safeties would play a prominent role in modern defensive theory.
The strong safety now plays 7-10 yards off the line. The free safety now plays 10-12 yards off the line, and shades the weak side of the field. The safeties are very active prior to the snap. They counter pre-snap offensive movement, show the blitz all along the line, and give the QB another problem to solve in three seconds. Safeties disguise their coverage schemes, and assignments.
The modern safety skill set requires that both have the CB speed to cover wide receivers. Both need great ball skills. Both need the tackling skills that limit yards gained after the catch.
As a result of this paradigm shift, a safety has been selected no later than eighth overall in the last three drafts. They are commanding CB contracts that were not possible for many years.
It is my firm belief that in a modern defense, the only thing that defines a strong safety, vs. a free Safety is where he lines up on the field. The distinction between the two safety positions has become unrecognizable.
Below, you have my latest and greatest strong safety rankings, with free safety cross-rankings. The rankings are based solely on 2009 stats. The only outside influence came in the form of the strength of schedule stats from ESPN.com. No projections were made by this author.
Note 1. An asterisk = underclassman. Two asterisks = sophomore.
Note 2. Numbers within brackets are the free safety rank when all other strong safeties have been stripped from the list. This, in my opinion, yields the truest cross-evaluation data.
1. DeAndre McDaniel, Clemson. FS rank = 2 [2]
2. Mark Barron, Alabama. FS rank = 3 [3]
2. Johnny Brown, Mississippi. FS rank = 5 [4t]
3. Andrew Rich* , Brigham Young. FS rank = 6 [4t]
4. David Sims, Iowa State. FS rank = 9 [6]
5. Shiloh Keo, Idaho. FS rank = 11 [7t]
6. Ahmad Black, Florida. FS rank = 12 [7t]
7. Duke Ihenacho, San Jose State. FS rank = 15 [9t]
8. Jeron Johnson, Boise State. FS rank = 16 [9t]
9. Eric Hagg, Nebraska. FS rank = 17 [9t]
10. Eugene Clifford* , Tennessee State. FS rank = 19 [11t]
11. Dom DeCicco, Pittsburgh. FS rank = 20 [11t]
12. Max Suter, Syracuse. FS rank = 21 [11t]
13. Joe Lefged, Rutgers. FS rank = 22 [11t]
14. Hiram Atwater, UAB. FS rank = 26 [13t]
15. Zac Etheridge, Auburn. FS rank = 27 [13t]
16. Jay Valai, Wisconsin. FS rank = 30 [15]
17. Jasper Simmons, Missouri. FS rank = 32 [16]
18. Davonte Shannon, Buffalo. FS rank = 34 [17]
19. Mana Silva* , Hawaii. FS rank = 41 [23]
20. Chima Nwachukwu, Washington State. FS rank = 43 [24]
21. Justin Winters, Buffalo. FS rank = 45 [25]
22. Dominique Reese, Georgia Tech. FS rank = 47 [26]
23. Da’Norris Searcy, North Carolina. FS rank = 49 [27]
24. Kevin Brown, Middle Tennessee. FS rank = 52 [29]
25. Joel Schwenzfeier, North Dakota. FS rank = 54 [30]
26. Anthony Leon* , Arkansas. FS rank = 59 [34]
27. Wyatt Middleton, Navy. FS rank = 64 [37]
Please note the growing disparity in bracketed rankings starting with No. 19. This is due to a higher number of free safeties (36), than strong safeties (28).
Now, I went ahead and ranked the free safeties in the secondary role of strong safeties:
1. Tyler Sash*, Iowa. SS rank = 3 [3t]
2. Deunta Williams, North Carolina. SS rank = 4 [3t]
3. Raheem Moore*, UCLA. SS rank = 5 [4]
4. Brian Lainhart, Kent State. SS rank = 8 [5]
5. Quenton Carter, Oklahoma. SS rank = 10 [6t]
6. Robert Sands*, West Virginia. SS rank = 11 [6t]
7. Chris ProsinskI, Wyoming. SS rank = 14 [8t]
8. Jeramy Kellem, Middle Tennessee. SS = 18 [8t]
9. Sean Baker*, Ball State. SS rank = 19 [11]
10. Jaiquan Jarrett, Temple. SS rank = 24 [15t]
11. Mike Holmes, Syracuse. SS rank = 25 [15t]
12. Max Hewett, North Colorado. SS rank = 26 [15t]
13. Lance Mitchell*, Oregon State. SS rank = 29 [17t]
14. Chris Culliver, South Carolina. SS rank = 30 [17t]
15. Blake Gideon*, Texas. SS rank = 32 [18]
16. Jermale Hines, Ohio State. SS rank = 34 [19]
17. Kenny Tate*, Maryland. SS rank = 36 [20t]
18. Tejay Johnson, TCU. SS rank = 37 [20t]
19. Wes Davis, Boston College. SS rank = 38 [20t]
20. Nate Williams, Washington. SS rank = 39 [20t]
21. Tim Atchinson, Baylor. SS rank = 40 [20t]
22. Brett Greenwood, Iowa. SS rank = 41 [20t]
23. Fon Ingram, Mississippi. SS rank = 43 [21]
24. Jonathon Banks**, Mississippi State. SS rank = 45 [22]
25. Antwine Perez, Maryland. SS rank = 46 [23]
26. Alex Ibiloye, TCU. SS rank = 48 [24]
27. Maurice Rolle, LA-Lafayette. SS rank = 50 [25t]
28. Mark LeGree, Appalachian State. SS rank = 51 [25t]
29. Will Hill*, Florida. SS rank = 53 [26]
30. Mario Edwards, Georgia Tech. SS rank = 55 [27t]
31. Alex Frye, Wake Forrest. SS rank = 56 [27t]
32. Troy Woolfolk, Michigan. SS rank = 57 [27t]
33. Marcious Ball, Memphis. SS rank = 58 [27t]
34. Drew McAllister, USC. SS rank = 60 [28t]
35. Chris Conte, California. SS rank = 61 [28t]
36. Justin Byers, North Carolina State. SS rank = 62 [28t]
The statistical data pointed out that there was little to distinguish between the skill sets of the strong, and free safeties.
Now, I’d like your feedback. Let me know if I have missed a safety that should be included in the 2011 NFL draft discussion. Let me know if “Your” guy should have gotten more respect.
Michael Sudds is an analyst, and team correspondent for DraftTek.com.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
Tim Tebow.
Tim Tebow, Tim Tebow, Tim Tebow, Tim Tebow, Tim Tebow, and Timothy Richard Tebow .
I hope that satisfies the lust of crazed fans who can’t get enough of him.
The name has many long-time Denver Broncos fans wondering what the heck we have become.
People from Florida, a state two timezones away that borders the gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, are suddenly obsessed with our football team. They will not shut up about it or our third string quarterback.
As the team of the Rocky Mountains (for everyone from Florida that is an area of the country with its own, great football tradition thousands of miles to the northwest of you) the Denver Broncos are used to drawing fans from other states. Many people travel from states as far away as Idaho to see the home games at Invesco Field.
So what would be wrong with adding in another fan base from far away?
On paper, it would seem like nothing.
Unfortunately, a group of these fans who I call Tebowholics, are riding a trend at the expense of true Denver Broncos fans.
You’ll be able to identify them at games by their bizarre string of obnoxious questions to anyone around willing to listen:
John Elway? Who is that?
What is a Mile High Stadium?
Where is the ocean?
Why can’t I breathe?
The answer to the last question, which might surprise some readers, is because I have jumped out of my seat and started strangling him now, rather than because of the altitude.
These fans, while holding very tightly to Tim Tebow, are not making any effort to adopt the rest of the Denver Broncos franchise. Tim certainly deserves some attention from the fans right now, and he deserves the hype of being a first round pick, but the guy is still a third string quarterback.
Give him the same amount of praise as you’re giving Demaryius Thomas, who was drafted ahead of him. And if you’re just learning about our football team that is “way out west” it would be nice if you took the time to learn who else is on it.
We have some truly great, proven players like Champ Bailey, Brian Dawkins, Ryan Clady, Elvis Dumervil, DJ Williams, and believe it or not, a quarterback named Kyle Orton who will be starting this year. Incidentally, none of those people are named Tim Tebow.
We also have a history as an organization that is in no way tied to what Tim Tebow did in his career at Florida. Before Jesus Chris…er…Tim Tebow showed up, we somehow stumbled into a couple of Super Bowl wins despite being uncultured cave people trapped in the Dark Ages.
I know, right? How could anyone do that without the consent of Florida or presence of Tebow?
As a long time fan, I’ve seen this little act before and I don’t like it. When Jay Cutler was drafted, a bunch of random fans who had loose ties to Vanderbilt started cheering for Denver. They left when he went to Chicago.
The Denver Broncos have one of the greatest and most passionate fan bases in the world. We have endured four years of 8-8 records in a row, and narrow playoff misses because of them.
We have stayed loyal through the ups and downs, before and after John Elway, and through days when actually winning a Super Bowl seemed like a pipe dream.
If you’re here to join us, then play the role of neophyte and start learning. We welcome new fans, but only if they’re here for the long term, and only if they do the necessary things to assimilate to our fan community.
Learn the traditions.
What does the word “incomplete” mean to you?
Pretty soon it will have an entirely new meaning, that’s for sure.
Welcome to the folks from Florida who actually want to be a part of this community of fans. We love bringing new people in. We are truly happy to have you.
For those who are Tebowholics, looking to pollute the Rocky Mountain air with ignorance and infatuation, please go home. We don’t need the spam, trash, and schism that you will inevitably cause.
Fans throughout the NFL have seen that scenario before.
Fans of the Denver Broncos have gone through way too much in recent years to deal with that now.
In closing, Tim Tebow .
This was my 100th article for B/R. Certainly a mark to be happy about hitting, and I was saving it for an article I thought was truly important.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
BYU on the outside looking in?
The Board of Trustees and the administration at Brigham Young University have a decision to make.
Are they willing to to do what it takes to play with the big boys or not? Being the big fish in the little pond will no longer suffice – or work for that matter.
With arch rival Utah leaping to the PAC-10, the balance of power has stunningly changed. BYU finds itself face down in the mud after a sucker punch from a in-state little brother, who stands over them gloating.
The program with the larger fan base, better facilities, stronger national reputation, football national championship and Heisman trophy to its credit, just witnessed the Utes rocket past them on Thursday to grab the spotlight and cash. The world has inexplicably turned upside down for Cougar Nation.
Who would have ever imagined through the years of Gifford Nielsen, Marc Wilson, Jim McMahon, Steve Young, Robbie Bosco, Ty Detmer, Steve Sarkesian, etc, etc, that it would be the Utes getting the big pay day ahead of BYU. Prior to 2003 Utah hadn’t won an outright conference football title in over 50 years. For three decades the Utes along with rest of the conference’s programs gravy-trained off of BYU’s athletic accomplishments and national brand.
As the conference big dog, BYU has always tried to play it nice, not wanting to rock the boat or come across as overplaying its hand. Well, those days are officially over. What we have learned from the last two weeks is that it’s every school for itself.
So BYU, are you going to get off the canvas? Or are you going to just turn the other cheek and then slither away into athletic anonymity to become the religious version of Harvard or Yale? Or perhaps the Provo version of BYU-Idaho?
If your going to get back in the fight, the same old line of reasoning won’t get it done. You’ll need to call in the cavalry, you’ll need to take the bull by the (long) horns, you’ll need to think outside of the proverbial box.
No more mister nice guy.
Here are some thoughts to get you started…
#1. Do what it takes to get yourself into the Big XII.
Despite what Big XII Commissioner Dan Bebee has said, at the end of the day the conference schools are not going to walk away from the revenue generated by a championship game. Also consider that Jerry Jones, who has a contract with the league to play its championship games in the new Cowboys Stadium, is not going to just let the Big XII walk away from its commitment. And don’t think for a moment that the NCCA is going to allow the Big XII to play a championship game with just 10 teams. It just forced the Big Ten and PAC-10 to go to 12 teams to have a championship game.
The Big XII will also be forced to add schools to insure that it consistently has enough teams that qualify for all of its bowl tie-ins. The Big XII has contracts with nine different bowls including the Fiesta (or BCS title game), Holiday, Cotton, Insight, Alamo, Texas, Pinstripe, EagleBank and the Dallas Bowl Classic. If they want to keep those bowls in place they will have to add teams to the league that put butts in seats and draw eyeballs for TV. If they don’t some, if not most, of those bowls will look around for a better partner like an expanded PAC-10 or Big Ten.
BYU has always had a friend in ESPN, who by the way now owns the TV rights to both the BCS and the Big XII championship game. ESPN has consistently worked to get BYU on its air because the Cougars deliver strong ratings for the network. BYU needs to work through “The Worldwide Leader in Sports” to sit down at the table with Texas and Oklahoma to broker a deal. The Cougars also need to follow the example of the Utes and be willing to take less money in the first few years of membership to make it happen.
#2. Tell the Mountain West to take a hike when it comes to football.
If BYU is locked out of a major conference it must give serious consideration to becoming a football independent. Two things are necessary to make this happen. BYU must create its own TV contract worth several million dollars a year and it must broker a deal into the BCS in the process, essentially a mini-Notre Dame arrangement. Again the Cougars could turn to ESPN, who back in 1998 was willing to give the MWC $48 million over eight years for the sole purpose of having BYU on their air.
The other MWC schools would certainly squawk if BYU were to act this boldly. They may even threaten to kick their other programs out of the conference, but its not likely they actually would. If they did vote the Cougars out, BYU could take its ball and join Gonzaga in the WCC.
#3. Stay in the MWC but seek your own TV contract.
This is the least palatable of the three ideas offered here. The Cougars and the MWC can continue to try to develop the league into an automatic qualifier conference, but strike their own TV deal. BYU could tell Comcast/CBS College Sports to keep their $1.2 million if necessary. Obviously this option could get messy legally.
These are just a few ideas to get the juices flowing. There are a lot of smart people available to BYU to help figure this out. Perhaps there other, better ideas or variations on the ideas offered. One thing’s for sure though, BYU’s world changed on Thursday and if the determination is to play with the big boys, the status-quo won’t do.
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