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The Chicago Bears made it official and let running back Chester Taylor go, bringing an expected end to a wild chain of events. The Bears terminated the veteran’s contract along with tight end Desmond Clark’s while paring their roster to 53 before Satur…
Minnesota Vikings Running Back, Adrian Peterson, has been a consistent fantasy football stud since entering the league in 2007. Since his breakout rookie season, he has been seen as one of the top running backs to snag on your fantasy football draft day. Now that Brett Favre has confirmed his return, can Peterson continue his reign near the top of draft boards?
Many see Favre as a key to Peterson’s worth. Many also forget that Peterson was doing his thing before Favre got there and would have continued if he didn’t return. While Favre does relieve some pressure from an opposing defense, Peterson would have likely gained even more carries and would still have his offensive line.
While Peterson’s carries went down in 2009 (still over 300), his receptions more than doubled from the previous season, adding value in leagues that reward Points Per Reception (PPR). In 2010, the man that took regular receptions from Peterson is gone as Chester Taylor has departed for Chicago. We should see Peterson more on third down situations.
Are you wondering why we have not mentioned fumbles yet? Yes, Peterson appears to be a fumbling machine. He does make up for it in points and he won’t likely see much time on the bench other than a wakeup call for a drive or two.
For example, his only multiple fumble game (two against the Lions) last season, he ran for 133 yards and two TDs. While his fumbling gained concerns in the playoffs because the magnitude of the game, those things don’t matter in fantasy football. If you want to shy away because of fumbles, we will happily take him off your hands.
One thing you will notice in his numbers is how his yards per carry have went down each season. Don’t let that bother you, you are thinking too much. Adrian Peterson is one of the safe picks in the first round, from top to bottom.
Currently, Peterson is landing an Average Draft Position of the second pick in the first round. He has landed anywhere from the first pick overall to the sixth pick (would like to be in that league).
At this time, Peterson ranks number two in our Running Back Predraft Rankings.
| Year | Gm |
Rush Att |
Rush yds |
Avg |
Rush TD |
Rec |
Rec yds |
Avg |
Rec TD |
Fan pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 16 | 314 | 1383 | 4.4 | 18 | 43 | 436 | 10.1 | 0 | 289.9 |
| 2008 | 16 | 363 | 1760 | 4.8 | 10 | 21 | 125 | 6.0 | 0 | 248.5 |
| 2007 | 14 | 238 | 1341 | 5.6 | 12 | 19 | 268 | 14.1 | 1 | 232.9 |
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Matt Forte burst onto the scene in 2008, rushing for 1,238 yards and 8 touchdowns. He was also an asset in the passing game, with 63 receptions for 477 yards and 4 touchdowns.
In his sophomore season he remained a solid receiver, though the touchdowns disappeared. He had 57 receptions for 471 yards, but didn’t score a touchdown. That regression was also prevalent in the running game, where he rushed for just 929 yards and scored 4 touchdowns.
Part of the change could have been based on philosophy, as his number of carries fell from 2008 to 2009:
2008 – 316 carries
2009 – 258 carries
The acquisition of Jay Cutler easily could have factored into that. In 2009 the Bears attempted 563 passes. In 2008, with Kyle Orton leading the offense, they attempted 528 passes.
A more pass-heavy offense certainly leads to fewer carries and hurts a runner’s ability to make an impact. Heading into 2010, with Mike Martz now in place as the offensive coordinator, you have to wonder if the number of carries will fall a little bit further.
It’s not like Forte has been overly impressive when he gets the carries, anyways. Even in his big season of 2008, he averaged less than four yards a carry. Last season he was at just 3.6 yards per carry.
Fumbles also became a major issue for him. He fumbled the ball just once in his rookie year, but coughed it up six times last year (and lost three of them). That was among the worst in the league and if it continues, will certainly cut into his playing time.
With Chester Taylor brought in from the Minnesota Vikings, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that happen. Taylor has spent the last few seasons playing understudy to Adrian Peterson, but is just a few years removed from a 1,216 yard campaign as a starter.
Neither back had much success in the first preseason game, with Taylor rushing for 10 yards and Forte rushing for 7 yards. I wouldn’t read too much into that, however.
Playing in Chicago, the weather is going to be an issue, especially late in the season. Even with the new Martz/Cutler marriage in place, it’s impossible to think that the team is just going to pass the ball all day long in December games. They have home games against the Jets and Patriots, as well as a road game in Green Bay. That means opportunity for Forte, but there are a ton of concerns surrounding him.
I’d consider him a low-end RB2, or a very good RB3 at this point, but nothing more. What about you? How good do you think Forte will be? Where would you draft him?
Make sure to check out some other recent player profiles:
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With preseason games underway, there are some significant changes to the running back injuries. Let’s take a look at whose value has taken a hit, and who is on the rise.
- Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans
- Adrian Peterson – Minnesota Vikings
- Maurice Jones-Drew – Jacksonville Jaguars
- Ray Rice – Baltimore Ravens
- Frank Gore – San Francisco 49ers
- Steven Jackson – St. Louis Rams
- Michael Turner – Atlanta Falcons
- DeAngelo Williams – Carolina Panthers
- Ryan Grant – Green Bay Packers
- Rashard Mendenhall – Pittsburgh Steelers
- LeSean McCoy – Philadelphia Eagles
- Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers
- Knowshon Moreno – Denver Broncos
- Beanie Wells – Arizona Cardinals
- Ryan Mathews – San Diego Chargers
- Cedric Benson – Cincinnati Bengals
- Jamaal Charles – Kansas City Chiefs
- Shonn Greene – New York Jets
- Pierre Thomas – New Orleans Saints
- Ronnie Brown – Miami Dolphins
- Matt Forte – Chicago Bears
- Felix Jones – Dallas Cowboys
- Arian Foster – Houston Texans
- Clinton Portis – Washington Redskins
- Joseph Addai – Indianapolis Colts
- C. J. Spiller – Buffalo Bills
- Brandon Jacobs – New York Giants
- Ahmad Bradshaw – New York Giants
- Jahvid Best – Detroit Lions
- Marion Barber – Dallas Cowboys
- Darren McFadden – Oakland Raiders
- Thomas Jones – Kansas City Chiefs
- Jerome Harrison – Cleveland Browns
- Justin Forsett – Seattle Seahawks
- Cadillac Williams – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Montario Hardesty – Cleveland Browns
- Chester Taylor – Chicago Bears
- Ricky Williams – Miami Dolphins
- Fred Jackson – Buffalo Bills
- LaDanian Tomlinson – New York Jets
Thoughts:
- Ben Tate’s season has ended before it started, having suffered a broken ankle in the preseason’s first game. With Steve Slaton fumbling, a problem that haunted him in 2009, Arian Foster could be primed to be the RB1. He was impressive in the preseason opener with four rushes for 31 yards. He seems like a lock to get the bulk of the carries at this point.
- Ryan Grant suffered a concussion in the preseason opener. His spot in the rankings isn’t dropping yet, but it certainly is possible depending on the severity and if he’s forced to miss time.
- Fred Jackson broke a bone in his hand and may miss the opening to the season. That opens the door for C.J. Spiller to emerge right away, and he may never look back. Jackson hangs on the rankings, but as nothing more than a late round flier now. He should still get carries upon his return, but his role could be reduced if Spiller grabs hold of this opportunity.
- There are rumblings that Ahmad Bradshaw could overtake Brandon Jacobs as the Giants’ RB1. I’m not putting much stock in Bradshaw’s start against the Jets, either. I’ll believe the change when I see it, but if you are going to draft one, you would be best served to have them both to protect yourself.
- Could the Chiefs actually give Thomas Jones more carries then Jamaal Charles? I’m not buying it, and not moving Charles down from my rankings. The news that Thomas could start does bump him up a few spots, however.
- Knowshon Moreno’s hamstring injury drops him a few spots, but don’t be deceived. My stance on him is unchanged. I still consider him a huge breakout candidate for 2010 (click here for my thoughts, which were written prior to the injury).
- I recently took a closer look at Darren McFadden, concluding that he was definitely worth drafting as a depth option. To find out why, click here for my thoughts.
- Rashard Mendenhall has moved into my Top 10, almost by default, but I don’t view him as a first round talent. Click here to find out why.
- People may be overvaluing Ryan Mathews, but he certainly looked impressive in his first professional action. He rushed the ball nine times for 50 yards, while adding a pair of receptions. He gets a slight boost in value.
- Is Beanie Wells a Top 25 player? Click here to find out why I don’t think so.
- Brian Westbrook has joined the San Francisco 49ers, where he will assume the backup role after Glen Coffee retired abruptly. Depending on how much playing time he gets behind Frank Gore will determine if he ultimately sneaks onto the list.
What are your thoughts on these rankings? Who is ranked too high? Who is ranked too low?
Make sure to check out Rotoprofessor’s other 2010 rankings:
Also, make sure to check out our recent rookie rankings:
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It was a bittersweet opening game for Chicago Bears fans. A 25-10 loss to the San Diego Chargers in the first preseason game showed us what the Bears need to work on before the start of the regular season.
The offensive line did not open any holes for either Matt Forte or Chester Taylor. Forte only gained 7 yards on 4 carries, and Taylor only gained 10 yards on 7 carries. Very limited production for two above-average running backs.
What I get from Forte’s and Taylor’s bad performances is the offensive line doesn’t looked too improved.
Not only did they have trouble opening holes for the running backs, but they let the defense get to Jay Cutler twice, sacking him once, which most of the blame could be put on Forte’s failed block on Donald Strickland.
The Chargers also got to Caleb Hanie, forcing a sack. Hanie would leave the game with a shoulder injury, not to return.
The offensive line has had the most amount of changes and switches during the preseason, and it looks like they’ll need a better performance next game to show that they have really improved.
Defensively, the Bears didn’t look terrible, but they showed that they need some more work before the regular season.
The starters didn’t come out until the second quarter, but they gave up a 28-yard pass, a touchdown, and let Chargers’ rookie running back Ryan Matthews gain 50 yards on nine attempts.
Not exactly what you want to see from your starting defense, during the first preseason game. Injuries to the defense only added to the problem.
Danieal Manning was already sidelined for the game, but his replacement, Craig Seltz, left the game in the first quarter with an ankle injury.
The bright spot on the defense was safety Major Wright, but he, as well, left the game with a finger injury, though it’s not meant to be serious.
Hunter Hillenmeyer also left the game with a foot injury.
Jay Cutler‘s debut only lasted one series and two passes, but it was a positive and productive one, completing both of his two attempts to Johnny Knox.
Cutler lead the Bears on a 51-yard scoring drive, which led to a Robbie Gould field goal, but the Bears, once again, showed they have trouble scoring in the red zone. It was 1st and 10 on the Chargers’ 19, during that same drive, but the Bears moved back three times.
The little we saw of Cutler showed that he can be a versatile quarterback, given protection.
The other quarterback, and often forgotten, Caleb Hanie was pretty decent. He completed 10 of 17 passes for 148 yards, a touchdown, and an interception before leaving the game with the shoulder injury.
In review, I saw what I expected the Bears to look like. I knew the offensive line and defense would be the two major problems to watch, and, after watching the game Saturday, I feel no more confident in those two areas than I did at the end of last season.
I liked what I saw from Cutler and the receivers, especially Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu.
The new offense JUST might work this year, but it’s way too early to carve anything in stone.
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