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Under head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady, the New England Patriots were able to return atop the AFC East in 2009, despite winning one fewer game than they did in 2008 when they failed to make the postseason.
The Patriots, however, were not good enough to make a deep run into the postseason, as they were beat bad at home in round one by the Baltimore Ravens. This year the Patriots will have a tough challenge at winning the division with the improvements both the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins have made. Here is a look at what the Patriots will send on to the field on both sides of the ball in 2010, plus my prediction on where they finish the year in the division.
Offense: The Patriots appear content at letting Tom Brady air it out nearly every snap of the game, and while Brady has excelled, he will have a big challenge ahead of him without Wes Welker for the majority of the season, as Welker hauled in a team high 123 catches for 1,348 yards.
The Patriots still have a huge deep threat with Randy Moss, and added veteran Torry Holt to give Brady a solid No.2 target. The team also added veteran tight end Alge Crumpler to help in the blocking packages, and drafted two rookie tight ends in Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. The key will be how well second year slot receiver Julian Edelman plays in the place of Welker.
The Patriots did nothing this offseason to improve a running game that did little to nothing last year. Laurence Maroney will likely be the feature back for the Patriots, but he has never lived up to the expectations everyone had when he came out of college. The Patriots use a number of backs over the course of a seasons, but are really hoping they can get more out of veteran Fred Taylor.
The offensive line remains intact and should be solid again in 2010. They are set on the left side with tackle Matt Light and guard Logan Mankins, as Mankins has really developed into a very good guard in the NFL. This unit has to stay healthy, as they are the key to keeping Brady healthy and throwing the football.
Defense: This unit missed the veteran leadership that was lost last offseason, but ended up putting together a pretty respectable season. The Patriots were able to bring back nose tackle Vince Wilfork, and that was huge for this team, as Wilfork is the key to the Pats 3-4 scheme. The Pats brought in free agent Gerard Warren to play opposite of Ty Warren at defensive end.
The Patriots have two very solid players at linebacker in outside backer Tully Banta-Cain, who led the team with 10 sacks in 2009, and inside linebacker Jerod Mayo. Gary Guyton returns to play alongside Mayo in the middle, while newcomer Pierre Woods appears to have the edge at the other outside spot, but should get plenty of competition from Rob Ninkovich and rookie Jermaine Cunningham. The Patriots also landed inside linebacker Brandon Spikes in the second round of the draft.
The Patriots secondary really struggled to come up with big stops against the better passers in the NFL, and that led to them taking Devin McCourty with their first round selection. McCourty figures to play in nickel packages to start, as Leigh Bodden and Jonathan Wilhite return to start at the two corner spots. Brandon Meriweather continues to get better at safety, and free safety Brandon McGowan was solid in his first year with the Pats in 2009.
Prediction – 1st AFC East: I feel like this is still the team to beat in the East, and I look for a monster season from Tom Brady and the Patriots offense this season despite the loss of Welker.
Find out where I have the rest of the teams finishing up the year in our 2010 NFL predictions . If you plan on betting the NFL this season, than I strongly recommend checking out our live NFL odds page each and every week to ensure you the best chance at a winning season.
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Over the offseason, I have seen countless articles and comments stating that the Patriots are on the decline, which is a false statement, to say the least.
While I’m not saying that we are a lock for the Super Bowl—which is crazy to say this early about any team—we are certainly not on the decline after adding depth and youth to the team over the past two seasons.
The secondary has been revamped with players like Darius Butler , Leigh Bodden , Devin McCourty , Patrick Chung , and Jonathan Wilhite . There was also improved play by Brandon Meriweather last season; he has become somewhat of a ball hawk and should have another good season this year.
The secondary’s speed has improved and game recaps will not be showing as much Patriot CB’s getting burned down the field as when Ellis Hobbs II was with the team.
I have seen comments about how linebacker Jerod Mayo did not play well coming back from injury last season, which is another false statement. Mayo still finished the year with over 100 tackles, 1.5 sacks, one interception, and one forced fumble.
A lot of Patriots haters have been nagging us about how slow linebacker Brandon Spikes is and that he will be below average. Spikes may not be fast, but neither was Tedy Bruschi . I’m not saying that Spikes will have a career like Bruschi did, but when I look at these two players, they have a lot of intangibles that are similar.
Sure, Spikes ran one of the worst 40-yard dash times I’ve seen for a linebacker, but speed isn’t everything—just ask New York Jets OLB/DE Vernon Gholston . Like Bruschi, Spikes always seems to make plays on the ball and ball carrier despite lacking speed. Spikes has good instincts that will make up for his lack of speed.
Tully Banta-Cain is the only sure pass rusher on the team and Derrick Burgess is a band-aid until Jermaine Cunningham can learn the defense. Burgess is still capable of getting sacks, though it won’t be as much as we would like.
Gary Guyton has good coverage skills and should be replaced to stuff the run with Spikes or veteran linebacker Tyrone Mckenzie.
As for the offense, there are plently of options for Tom Brady to throw to this year that could make a big impact.
Rookies Rob Gronkowski , Taylor Price , and Aaron Hernandez could all surprise other teams this year. Gronkowski, at 6’6″ and 265lbs, will be a nightmare matchup problem for any defense; he is more than capable of blocking and has good speed for his size.
Hernandez won’t be a blocking tight end, but he is elusive and has good speed. Hernandez was Tim Tebow’s favorite target in college and it resulted in a lot of touchdowns.
Price will be a slot receiver and is a clone of Julian Edelman . Price has the speed to be a deep threat and runs excellent routes. Edelman showed last season that he is tough and very hard to cover in the slot, much like the injured Wes Welker.
In the playoff loss to the Ravens last season, Edelman was the only weapon that could produce against the Ravens defense, resulting in two touchdowns.
Receiver Brandon Tate has been injured the past two seasons, but he is healthy now and Brady has already stated that Tate is one of his favorite targets. Tate has the speed to be a deep threat and could play opposite Randy Moss .
Moss is old, but has showed no signs of losing a step. Sure, he takes plays off now and then, but in a contract year, that is a highly unlikely thing for him to do. I find it very interesting that Moss was the only receiver last season to escape off of “Revis Island .”
Receiver Torry Holt has surely lost a step over his career, but he is still one of the best route running receivers in the game.
The year has finally come where running back Lawrence Maroney will be released if he has another bad season. Maroney may have never lived up to how high he was selected in the draft, but when he is not tap dancing at the line of scrimmage and actually runs through the gap, it makes me think twice about him.
Veteran running backs Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor still have something left in the tank and are hard to bring down. Veteran running back Kevin Faulk is still one of the best third down backs in the league despite some questionable calls last season, where the referees did not call it a first down.
My favorite running back on the team, BenJarvus Green-Ellis , aka “Lawfirm ,” needs to see more playing time because he runs the ball hard through the gaps without hesitation and is hard to take down.
Offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer is an up and coming player. He played well last season and even held defensive end Dwight Freeney to zero sacks last season in a game where offensive tackle Matt Light was injured.
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Even after a dynamic offseason in which “Gang Green” added a number of playmakers to the team, they still get no love from the bookies, getting 12:1 odds to win it all this year.
That puts them at seventh overall on the list, sitting behind the Colts (8:1), the Saints (9:1), the Chargers (10:1), the Pats (10:1), and Dallas (11:1).
Okay, I understand why the Colts and Saints are favored over the Jets. I understand it. I don’t agree with it, but I won’t argue with it either.
Those are proven teams that made it all the way last year. The Jets aren’t fully proven yet, so I get that the odds makers believe that they have a better shot at winning the Super Bowl in 2011.
But I’ll tell you why the Jets are better than the other three teams that Vegas believes are better fit to win the championship.
We’ll go right down the line, so that means San Diego is up first.
Did the Jets beat them in the divisional round of the playoffs last year?
Didn’t they pick off Phillip Rivers twice, a quarterback who only averaged just about one interception every two games.
Didn’t they give up 128 yards and a touchdown (a 53-yard touchdown) to a rookie running back?
Forget that game, because that was only a view of how much better the Jets are in a microcosm.
They have added a cornerback, pass-rusher, another cornerback, an offensive lineman, a running back, etc. Add in Mark Sanchez’s experience and a guarantee from me that he will have shaken those rookie jitters (because my word means that much) and you know that the Jets are better than San Diego.
Who’s there starting running back? Darren Sproles?
He can’t carry the ball that much.
Ryan Mathews? He’s a rookie. He might be great but I don’t know how quickly he can transition from college starter to pro starter.
The pro game is much more demanding and there are more games.
Next up: the Patriots.
First of all, Wes Welker. He could miss two to three months of the coming season. He is Brady’s go-to guy.
As Randy Moss continues to decline and continues to give up on routes and continues to show more and more just how lazy he is, Tom Brady continues to lean on Welker as his crutch.
But Welker won’t be there this time, and Julian Edelman can’t do that much.
They’re running game can’t be the backup plan because there isn’t anyone worth giving the ball to. They’ve had issues with the run game for the past few years and it will be very noticeable this season.
Maroney. Morris. Faulk. Taylor. There is no clear starter.
There are massive holes on their defense as well.
They have some players in Tully Banta-Cain, Jerod Mayo, Vince Wilfork, Brandon Meriweather, and Leigh Bodden.
They have a lack of players at defensive end (Gerrard Warren…who?) and outside linebackers (Gary Guyton…who?) inside linebacker (Tyrone McKenzie…who?… he is coming off an ACL tear by the way) and they have a decent, and that’s a compliment, cornerback in Jonathan Wilhite.
The Jets might not be flashy at every position, but they don’t have holes like this team does. I think those holes will show in the coming season.
Lastly: the Dallas Cowboys.
I am actually amused that I have to argue that the Jets are better than the Cowboys.
Tony Romo still isn’t a proven quarterback. He still has a lot of issues and he has still struggled with consistency.
Their running game struggled last season.
Marion Barber didn’t show up.
Felix Jones is a solid back but him and Tashard Choice and aren’t exactly the choice running corps (clever, right?).
Roy Williams is a failed project.
Miles Austin is GREAT, but if you double him there isn’t really another viable option.
Patrick Crayton is mediocre at best.
And as good as DeMarcus Ware and Terence Newman are, their defense isn’t special either.
I’m not sure what the bookies see in this team. They will probably win their division again, but I’d expect an early exit from the postseason.
So should the Jets be the favorite to win it all? Probably not.
But I do think they are better than the Colts and the Saints on paper.
Obviously, the team hasn’t played an actual football game together yet, so it is hard to put them as the favorites while the Colts and Saints haven’t done much over the offseason.
If Darren Sharper doesn’t sign, I think it would be hard to put them as the runner-up on that list.
He was a huge playmaker last season. He changed the game with his ability to make big plays in clutch times.
The Colts are still the best team in the league in my opinion, but Peyton Manning’s postseason failures make it hard for me to call them Super Bowl favorites.
His record as a regular season starter and his record as a postseason starter are not comparable at all. He simply isn’t a good playoff quarterback.
So I have changed my mind, why aren’t the Jets the favorites to win the Super Bowl?
Who’s better than them?
Not the five teams that Vegas has as better.
Right behind them are the Packers, Vikings, and Steelers.
The Pack still doesn’t have much of an offensive line, the Vikings probably won’t have a quarterback, and the Steelers lost Ben for the start of the season and no longer have Santonio Holmes.
I’m starting my own bookie agency, and my first line: Jets 4:1 to win Super Bowl XLV.
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It looks like the Patriots will be in a dog fight this year in the AFC East, the division that New England has dominated over the last decade. The Pats have captured the AFC Crown seven of the last 10 seasons, but a changing of the guard is looming on the horizon.
The Patriots are looking more like the least than the beast of the AFC East.
The New York Jets are getting better every day it seems. The team that went to the AFC Championship last year on the shoulders of rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez is loading up their arsenal.
On the offensive side of the ball they acquired disgruntled Cleveland Browns wideout, Braylon Edwards last season. A talent for sure, but has consistency issues and a chronic case of the drops. However, he showed sparks of what he is capable of when he is focused. In 12 games with New York, Edwards caught 35 catches for 541 yards with 4 TDs.
This offseason the Jets have been very busy signing former San Diego and fantasy football stud LaDainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson replaces the productive Thomas Jones, who was unsigned before landing with the Kansas City Chiefs. A puzzling signing, considering Jones was more productive than LT. Jones had 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns in comparison to Tomlinson’s 730 yards and 12 touchdowns.
The Jets also traded for Santonio Holmes, who was being unloaded by Pittsburgh due to behavior issues. The former Super Bowl MVP will help the Jets’ passing game after serving a suspension for violating the NFL’s substance policy. Holmes had 79 catches and 1,248 yards for the Steelers.
New York also bolstered their secondary with the acquisition of Antonio Cromartie from the Chargers. He will compliment Darrelle Revis nicely. All of a sudden, the Jets have the best secondary in the division.
The Miami Dolphins also made a big splash this offseason by acquiring troubled wide receiver, Brandon Marshall from the Denver Broncos. It is rumored that the Phins gave up a second rounder this year and a second round pick next year as reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter . Not a bad price for an incredible talent and Pro Bowl wide receiver.
They also improved their defense with the signing of former Cardinals linebacker Karlos Dansby. Dansby recorded 109 tackles last year for Arizona. This has been a major upgrade on a decent defensive squad.
Miami and the Jets have got considerably better and the Buffalo Bills are the Buffalo Bills.
What about New England?
The Patriots no longer have the best wide receiving corps in the division.
Actually, far from it.
With the injury to Wes Welker and the disastrous signing of Joey Galloway last year, New England has been put in a major hole. All they have is Randy Moss, Julian Edelman, and newly-signed David Patten. Arguably, this crew may be only better than Buffalo.
They also lost both Ben Watson and Chris Baker in the passing game. Granted, Ben Watson was an underachiever and Baker was seldom used, but is Alge Crumpler the answer at the tight end position?
Staple third down running back Kevin Faulk was re-signed. He is a great signing for a veteran that has performed above and beyond his talent level. He also brings back the veteran leadership the Patriots desperately need.
Nose tackle Vince Wilfork was also taken care of finally. The centerpiece to the Patriots defensive line will be in New England for the foreseeable future. Sack leader, Tully Banta Cain was also re-signed. The defense is not worse than the 2009 edition, but as of right now they are not much better.
All Patriots fans must assume that coaching mastermind, Bill Belichick has everything under control. He will pick impact players in the draft to help the team return to the promised land. However, his work is cut out for him.
The margin for error for New England is very small at this time. They have to hit for the jackpot later this month in New York. As of right now, the AFC East is now a three horse race.
And the Patriots are closer to the glue factory than being a thoroughbred.
In Bill We Trust (fingers crossed).
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2010 NFL Mock Draft: AFC East Edition
The Jets have few holes to fill, but depth and getting younger will be key to their success to the fearless defense Rex Ryan loves to run.
New England needs to address the outside linebacker position instead of relying on old players and get bigger, faster, and stronger.
The Miami Dolphins should look to draft their biggest need by replacing the aging Jason Ferguson.
The Buffalo Bills are a complete mess, trying to create a 3-4 defense out of undersized players.
They are in a complete rebuilding phase, so selecting a franchise left tackle would be ideal.
9. Buffalo Bills – OT Bruce Campbell, Maryland
Season Record 6-10
The Buffalo Bills front five was a disaster and allowed a league-high 46 sacks in 2009. The Bills never replaced Pro Bowler Jason Peters at left tackle. Trading away Jason Peters doesn’t look so good now does it?
The Bills are in no position to start a rookie quarterback behind their existing offensive line.
Selecting Bruce Campbell with the ninth overall pick would be a great option in replacing three time Pro Bowler Jason Peters.
Bruce Campbell keeps his head up and on a swivel before and after the snap. He makes sound pre-snap reads and recognizes pressure coming off the edge, and does a good job of passing off stunting defensive linemen.
Campbell was the workout warrior at this year’s combine; height-weight-speed and Campbell’s physical tools are off the charts.
Their positional priorities continue to be quarterback, left tackle, and a nose tackle for their new 3-4 defense; however, the Bills need to keep whoever is throwing the ball upright.
The Bills have made some strides to aid their 3-4 defense with the signings of inside linebacker Andre Davis and defensive end Dwan Edwards, but still lack the overall size to even come close to the prototypical 3-4 defensive scheme.
Other Possibilities: QB Jimmy Clausen, OT Anthony Davis, ILB Rolando McClain
12. Miami Dolphins – NT Dan Williams, Tennessee
Season Record 7-9
The Dolphins are quite thin up front, and also dealing with the suspension of current nose tackle Jason Ferguson.
Jason Ferguson is 35 years old and coming off a season ending injury and facing an eight-game suspension.
Miami would be wise to get help at nose tackle through the draft, and Dan Williams is the premier two-gap player on the board.
Williams plays with good leverage and rarely gives up ground. He wins most one-on-one battles and does a good job of disengaging and redirecting to fall back into plays.
Signing Karlos Dansby in free agency frees the Dolphins to take Williams, who will in turn help a young and improved linebacking corps.
Chances are Miami will even look to let go a different route with outside linebacker Jason Taylor.
They also let go starting safety Gibril Wilson, who to me, is one of the top safeties in the game, makes me wonder if he is a locker room issue.
Overall, I think the Miami Dolphins have a lot of holes to fill while still being able to be a decent team each year.
Other Possibilities: OLB Brandon Graham, OLB Sergio Kindle, OLB Jason Pierre Paul, WR Dez Bryant
22. New England Patriots – OLB Brandon Graham, Michigan
Season Record 10-6
New England needs help at outside linebacker; Brandon Graham could shine like former Michigan football star, LaMarr Woodley in the 3-4 schemes.
Graham is highly disciplined and generally does a nice job of staying home when the plays goes to the opposite side. He keeps his head up and locates the ball quickly.
The Patriots will be looking for someone that can be disruptive in the backfield and can redirect plays back to the inside.
Brandon Graham is that exact player, while being the NCAA leader in tackles for a loss. Let’s face it, he is a terror for opposing quarterbacks.
New England’s biggest priority this year will be filling some holes with draft picks and somewhat in free agency.
Offensively they could find a receiver in the second round and continue their surge to solidify the defense with the rest of the draft.
Damione Lewis was signed by the Patriots and has a normal position at defensive tackle, but lacks the size to play nose tackle in a 3-4 scheme. This makes me wonder, does he move to end to play the run?
Bill Belichick brought back last year’s sacks leader, Tully Banta-Cain, but Adalius Thomas’ future is in doubt.
This gives the idea of signing Jason Taylor to be a quick fix, but would only be short lived.
Other Possibilities: OLB Sergio Kindle, DE Jared Odrick
29. New York Jets – DE Jared Odrick, Penn State
Season Record 9-7
The New York Jets continue to age at defensive end, a position that needs to be addressed before Marques Douglas and Shaun Ellis hit a downfall in their career.
Selecting Jared Odrick would be a tremendous key to next year’s fearless defense.
Odrick fires off the ball and shows strong initial surge with heavy hands that stack blockers up in one on one battles, with his relentless style Odrick has “Rex Ryan” written all over him.
Odrick is a player versatile enough to be a disruptive, pass-rushing threat and a strong anchor in the Jets 3-4 defense, look for him to transition to a five technique defensive end.
Trading for cornerback, Antonio Cromartie and signing running back, LaDainian Tomlinson have been big improvements.
They have lost safety, Kerry Rhodes and does Tomlinson bring back his old swagger now that he’s with a great rushing line?
Jason Taylor is even closer to a potential deal with the Jets than any other team as far as rumors go.
Bringing in a player of his caliber would basically push former first rounder Vernon Gholston, who has yet to put a quarterback on his back with zero sacks in his two year campaign, out the door.
The Jets should be in the running for a Super Bowl contender, but how will being on the HBO television series “Hard Knocks” affect their upcoming season?
Other Possibilities: OLB Jerry Hughes, best safety available
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