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The NFL is just 12 days away from its first mandatory roster cut where tough decisions will have to be made. The New England Patriots have had one major concern plaguing them over the last two seasons, their defense.
This preseason boasts an extremely promising young group coming to New England for the next few seasons under the guidance of defensive mastermind Bill Belichick.
27th overall pick Devin McCourty will add young depth at the cornerback position where no starter has been on the roster for more than three seasons.
The biggest surprise will come from second year cornerback Kyle Arrington, who survived the 53 man cut in 2009 and looks to do the same in 2010. Arrington serves as a multi-purpose cornerback where he has the speed and strength to be a special teams sniper.
The biggest struggle for New England’s comes at linebacker. Veterans Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess will be the teachers of a linebacking core that carries three rookies (Jermaine Cunningham, Dane Fletcher, and Brandon Spikes) and a converted defensive lineman (Rob Ninkovich). Likely cuts at the position are Tyrone McKenzie and Marques Murrell.
The safety position in New England has been a free touchdown for any pass friendly team in the last few seasons. Hard hitting Brandon Meriwether is slowly becoming the role-player the New England scouts envisions back when they drafted him in 2007.
Whereas sixth year veteran Brandon McGowan is slowly filling the expectations fans and coached hoped he would. The 26-year-old, former Chicago bear, is an injury prone risk that was known when New England originally signed him as an unrestricted free agent in 2009. McGowan posted career highs in multiple categories in 2009 in a secondary that needs him to produce bigger numbers in 2010.
New England will also look to take away the running game that ran through the middle of the field like they were a high school freshman squad in 2009.
The addition of Gerard Warren, a former third overall draft pick back in 2001 will add some size to a defensive line that already sits two giants with Vince Wilfork and Mike Wright.
The major concern is the depth behind the veteran crew. Three rookies (Kade Weston, Kyle Love, and Brandon Deaderick) will attempt to make the cut at a position that currently has 11 players with only four starting roles.
With the mix of rookie ego and veteran mentality it is a roster that is very similar to 2002, where the team failed to make the playoffs.
This season will have its ups and downs but the 17th ranked defense in most mock season predictions will have a beyond average season that will make the experts look silly when they do not give any credit where at least some credit is due.
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The NFL preseason continues this Thursday when the New England Patriots take on the Atlanta Falcons. Although it’s preseason, this game is important for these teams as they still have some unanswered questions.
Here are five reasons to tune into the game.
1. Crazy like a Fox
Fox will televise the game. If you know how to bet football then you know there is nothing better than betting on a televised game. NFL Odds makers at Bet Mania have pegged the Falcons as 2.5 point favorites over the Patriots.
This is the first chance to see how the guys at Fox Sports will cover NFL games this year. Will Terry and the gang be the best coverage on TV this year?
2. The Welker Watch
Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker has not played in a game since being injured in a meaningless game against Houston at the end of last year.
ESPN reports that Welker said the team’s approach remains to “take it slow,” so it would be surprising if he’s on the field Thursday against the Falcons in New England’s second preseason game.
Patriot fans seem to be happy with the progress of Julian Edleman, who is catching passes in place of Welker. He played well in his absence last year and put up some solid numbers against the Saints in the preseason opener. If these numbers continue the Patriots may play it safe with the return of Welker.
3. A Young QB not named Tebow or Bradford
In the first preseason game against the Chiefs, it was quarterback John Parker Wilson that recorded the best performance out of all the Falcons quarterbacks completing 7 of 15 passes for 64 yards.
Wilson received the bulk of the plays against the Chiefs and it will be interesting to see how he handles the blitzes that the Patriots serve up.
Matt Ryan is the Falcons starting quarterback, and barring injury he will be for a long time, but Falcon fans should be excited about the depth at the position.
4. Patriots are Red, White, and Black and Blue
The Patriots are banged up and the injuries seem to be a cause for concern.
Tom Brady injured his finger in the Saints game when he accidentally hit an opposing player’s helmet. When Bill Belichick was asked about Brady’s taped fingers prior to the afternoon practice session, he expressed, with a smile, his concern with the “injury.”
“I don’t think it’s life-threatening, no.”
That is good news for Patriot nation, but it may change the amount of paying time for Brady on Thursday.
It was announced that Ty Warren would be out for the season. Warren is a mainstay on the Patriots defensive line and replacing him will not be an easy task. Gerald Warren and Damione Lewis will get first crack at taking over on the line, but other players like Tully Banta-Cain will be asked to pick up some of his sack numbers.
Finally, Tory Holt was placed on the injured reserve list and his season and maybe his career, could be over. This game could be an audition for other wide receivers that can try and fill the void that was left by the injured Holt.
5. Can Falcons secondary “pass” the test?
In one of the combined practices with the Patriots, the Falcons secondary was exploited all day long by Tom Brady and Randy Moss.
However, it should be noted that the Falcons were missing the two top corners for the practice. Dunta Robinson has been out with a hamstring injury, and Brent Grimes did not practice because of a groin injury.
The Falcons finished 28th against the pass last year and they spent the offseason trying to improve the player personnel in the secondary. It will be fascinating to see if practice translates to game time and how the secondary will match up.
Just because it is the preseason in the NFL does not mean there is no reason to watch the games. This Thursday’s game should answer plenty of questions for both teams as they head towards the kickoff of the 2010 season.
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“Thin” isn’t exactly the first word that comes to mind when one thinks about defensive linemen.
Still, the Patriots have been thin in the defensive front for much of the preseason. Injuries, absences, and cuts have created several gaps in the defense. As usual, the Patriots are doing what’s necessary to plug those holes.
Plugging one of those holes effectively just became a lot more necessary.
NFL.com reports that the Patriots placed defensive end Ty Warren on season-ending injured reserve Friday after Warren elected to undergo surgery. He has been “laboring around for about a year and a half” on his injured hip, and did more damage to it in the third practice of training camp. He hasn’t seen the practice field since then.
Bill Belichick notes that Warren has “missed quite a bit of time in the past couple of years,” and the Patriots have had to deal with his absence during those periods.
Veteran newcomers Damione Lewis and Gerard Warren have seen more playing time since Ty Warren’s injury, and figure to share the load in his absence. Gerard Warren played well in the preseason opener against the Saints, showing the ability to press the pocket and create pressure on the quarterback.
One has to wonder if the recent rash of injuries to Ty Warren could signal the end of his time in a Patriots uniform when his contract runs up at the end of the 2011 season.
Not all is doom and gloom in the Patriots locker room, though. While the Patriots were waiting on Warren’s injury status to clear up, they were also waiting on outside linebacker Derrick Burgess as he contemplated retirement.
The waiting game is over, and Burgess is back in the fold. This is huge for New England, as a big question mark over the past couple of weeks has been the lack of bodies at outside linebacker. The Patriots released oft-injured Shawn Crable, who has yet to play a regular season snap in his first two seasons in the league. He hasn’t drawn many (if any) offers as a free agent.
The team brought in free agent Marques Murrell a couple of weeks ago to replace Crable. Murrell has looked good in practice, and landed a heavy sack on Drew Brees on the opening drive of the preseason opener against the Saints. He was expected to be the starter, but Burgess’ return creates a bit more competition between Murrell, Burgess, and rookie Jermaine Cunningham.
The situation in the front seven was looking rather uncertain over the past couple of weeks, but the Patriots finally have a measure of clarity. They can now put a clear plan in place and move forward.
They may be thin on the defensive line, but as Tully Banta-Cain put it, “there’s no such thing as thin if everyone’s doing their job and playing well.”
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Last Years Record 10-6
Wins: Bills (x2), Falcons, Ravens, Titans, Bucs, Dolphins, Jets, Panthers, Jaguars
Losses: Jets, Broncos, Colts, Saints, Dolphins, Texans, Ravens (Playoffs)
Biggest Playmaker Tom Brady
QB, Michigan, Drafted #199, 11th Year
Tom Brady consistently makes plays and makes everyone around him better. Brady could have another great year with a veteran offensive line and a very solid receiving corps.
Impact Player Vince Wilfork
NT, Miami, Drafted #21, 7th Year
Entering his seventh season with the Patriots, Wilfork has been a staple of the Patriots 3-4 defense. A huge key to this defense is a dominating nose tackle who can stuff the middle and take on two blockers. While he may not boast huge numbers, he is the key to the Pats’ defense.
Biggest Free Agent Addition Torry Holt
WR, NC State, Drafted #7, 12th Year
Torry Holt will be a great complement to fellow WR’s Randy Moss and Wes Welker. As Moss consistently draws double teams down the field, Torry Holt could have a big year. He only had 51 catches for 722 yards and zero touchdowns (all career lows) in 2009, but he was playing for the run-first Jacksonville Jaguars.
Biggest Offseason Loss Benjamin Watson
TE, Georgia, Drafted #32, 7th Year
Watson has been the Pats starter at TE for years, and losing him and fellow TE Chris Baker left the Pats with a serious question mark at the position. Now they will look to Alge Crumpler to be the leader of the group, with two rookies (Gronkowski and Hernandez) likely to be the top pass catchers.
Biggest Draft Steal Aaron Hernandez
TE, Florida, Drafted #113, Rookie
Hernandez is a versatile athlete that will fit in very well with the Patriots system. At Florida he was involved in the passing game as a tight end and a wideout, as well as in their option attack.
Hernandez is electric with the ball in his hands and picking him up in the fourth round was a great move by the Pats’ management.
Biggest Draft Reach Zoltan Mesko
P, Michigan, Drafted #150, Rookie
Mesko has a big leg and the potential to be a game changer, but drafting a punter is always risky business. Not to take anything away from Mesko, as he has been impressive this spring, but only time will tell if it was worth using a draft pick to pick him up.
Offseason Grade B
The Patriots went quietly about their business, focusing mainly on re-signing veterans such as Vince Wilfork, Kevin Faulk, Leigh Bodden and Stephen Neal.
The Patriots addressed their needs in the draft, selecting two tight ends who should be factors immediately, and bolstering their defense with the selections of versatile CB Devin McCourty and LB Brandon Spikes.
Getting a deal done with LG holdout Logan Mankins is a must and they could have addressed the OLB spot.
X-Factor Wes Welker
WR, Texas Tech, Undrafted, 7th Year
After blowing out his knee in the final (irrelevant) regular season game in 2009, Welker’s knee should be a question mark only because of his importance to the team. Julian Edelman served as an adequate replacement but Welker is a vital part of the Patriots’ success.
Welker has been cleared, and the Patriots need him to stay healthy.
Name You Should Know Tully Banta-Cain
OLB, California, Drafted #239, 8th Year
Banta-Cain rejoined the Patriots after two seasons in San Francisco. After seeing his role increased in 2006 in which he registered 5.5 sacks at OLB, he left for California, only to register four in two years combined.
Tully stepped up big for the Pats last year with 9.5 sacks, and look for continued success this year
Rising Star Jerod Mayo
ILB, Tennessee, Drafted #10, 3rd Year
Drafted in the first round out of Tennessee in the 2008 draft, Jerod Mayo has been a consistent player in the middle of the Pats’ defense. However, Mayo has only 1.5 sacks, zero interceptions and two forced fumbles in two years combined.
If he can become more of a consistent playmaker Mayo will be the next star of the Pats’ defense.
Offensive Outlook A-
Tom Brady is still the quarterback of the New England Patriots. Coming off a season in which the Pats posted the third highest yards per game totals, we expect similar success for the Pats offense this year who added the dynamic (but aging) Torry Holt, all-around TE Rob Gronkowski and playmaking TE Aaron Hernandez.
If Laurence Maroney can stay healthy and have a successful year, expect the Patriots to be very hard to stop.
Look for second year WR Brandon Tate to come back strong from his injury and push for the third receiver spot.
Defensive Outlook B-
The Patriots most glaring weakness is their pass rush, where they ranked 23rd in total sacks last year. Tully Banta-Cain stepped up with 9.5 a year ago and will have to continue his success.
Vince Wilfork is consistently huge (literally) in the middle, while the young secondary must step up.
The Patriots will need a few players to become consistent playmakers if they want to have an elite defense.
Special Teams Outlook B
After Chris Hanson’s 32nd ranking yards per punt in 2009, the Patriots drafted Zoltan Mesko from Michigan.
Stephen Gostkowski has been reliable throughout his career, nailing 19/20 FG attempts inside the 40 in 2009. Welker averaged a very healthy 12.5 yards per punt return last year.
If the Patriots can get decent production in their kick return game (Brandon Tate?) they could have a very effective Special Teams unit.
Projected 2010 Record 10-6
It’s hard to bet against the mysterious Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady, especially when he is surrounded by weapons. If the tight ends can overcome their inexperience and the Patriots can generate a pass rush, look for them to be hard to beat. It certainly won’t be easy for the Pats, as they have the sixth hardest schedule in the NFL (according to 2009 Win-Loss Records).
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After missing practically all of the 2008 season with a knee injury, quarterback Tom Brady was back in 2009, and he helped lead the New England Patriots to another division title. The Patriots finished the regular season with a 10-6 record, and eight of those wins came at home, where the Pats ran the table.
An injury to star wide receiver Wes Welker was certainly a factor in New England’s embarrassing playoff loss, further emphasizing how valuable his presence is to this team. If Welker can return healthy, the Patriots have enough pieces to top the AFC East again, but it won’t be easy with the emergence of the Jets and Dolphins.
Offense
Tom Brady played well in his first season back following major knee surgery. He finished the year with 4,398 yards and 28 touchdowns with 13 interceptions while helping New England boast the third-best passing offense in the NFL.
In all, the Patriots ranked sixth in the league in terms of scoring offense, averaging 26.7 points per game. Matching last season’s offensive numbers will largely depend on Welker’s health. Welker is expected to be ready to go in Week One, but the Pats have added Torry Holt and David Patten for security. In just 14 games last season, Welker caught 123 passes for 1,348 yards. He flat out moves the sticks.
Randy Moss may have lost a step of two, but I’m a firm believer in the saying “the numbers don’t lie”. Moss finished with 83 catches for 1,1264 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. There is room for improvement in the running game, and that improvement could come if Fred Taylor is able to stay healthy.
Defense:
While last year’s defense wasn’t as dominant as the ones from the past that featured Jarvis Green, Tedy Bruschi, Richard Seymour and Mike Vrable, it still finished fifth in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing only 17.8 points per game.
However, it may be hard to duplicate last season’s numbers with the additions division rivals New York and Miami have made to bolster their passing games.
Big Vince Wilfork is back to hold down the fort up front, but pass rushers must emerge around him for New England to remain a top notch defensive team. Linebacker Tully Banta-Cain led the Patriots with 10 sacks last year, but no one else on the roster had more than five. Someone is going to have to aid Banta-Cain and Wilfork in the pass rush or New England could end up allowing more than the 209.7 yards per game it gave up through the air last season.
Prediction: 2nd AFC East
The Patriots have won the AFC East six of the last seven years, and they’ll be in the mix in 2010. In fact, as long as Tom Brady is on the field and Bill Belichick is on the sideline, the Pats will be a threat to make the playoffs. However, I have them coming up short in the division this season.
The Jets, who were the best defensive team in the NFL last year, have a lot of momentum on their side after advancing to the AFC title game last season. Check out my 2010 NFL predictions article to see who I have winning each of the eight NFL divisions.
Beat the NFL odds on a consistent basis from Week 1 of the preseason through the Super Bowl with Jimmy Boyd expert picks!
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