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Well, times are very interesting in the New England area for Patriots and their fans right now. And by “interesting” I mean “odd.” The Pats are coming off a 10-6 season, decent enough by most standards, but then were summarily dismissed by the visiting Ravens in the wild card round.
Former defensive coordinator Dean Pees became the scapegoat, let go after six seasons with the team. Bill Belichick has said he will take a larger role on defense. A game plan that would make better sense if he had an offensive coordinator in place whom he trusted. And on top of that, quarterbacks coach Bill O’ Brien might not be very well liked by much of the team, especially with Tom Brady after the play calling was rather stale in 2009.
So this means coach Belichick will head into the season without a true offensive or defensive coordinator, something that the Pats aren’t used to experiencing. This could be a season of confusion and the Pats could see their worst in the Belichick era since 2000 when they went 5-11.
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady is still going to be the great Tom Brady that we know and (most of us) love. From what it looks like so far, he could end up having another great season and remain as one of the league’s top quarterbacks. He looks even more confident now that he has a full season removed from his surgery to repair the ACL in his knee. Going against what many have been thinking, I don’t think his commitment to the team will be affected even though he’s married to one of the hottest ladies on the face of the earth. Basically what I’m saying to Patriots fans is to expect the same ol’ successful Tom Brady. Brian Hoyer remains the backup for Brady. There have been talks of the Pats bringing in another veteran QB just to be a third stringer and to warm the rest of the bench. Jeff Rowe and rookie Zac Robinson might not like that idea though because if the Pats do sign another guy to the mix, that’s just one more spot down the depth chart they both go.
Running Backs
The Patriots have recently been a team with an interesting corps of running backs. They have three guys in the group who are over the age of 33 (Fred Taylor, Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris). This is also a group that have been injury prone with Morris and Taylor both getting hurt last year. Laurence Maroney is also a guy in the group who’s been wanting to prove that he’s not the draft bust that he’s been made out to be. He did a good job of trying to covering that out last year with his nine touchdown runs. In a perfect world, Maroney would be the first- and second-down back, Morris would get the short yards, and Fred Taylor would be the goal line back and Faulk, as always, would end up all over the field. The Pats didn’t add another running via the draft or free agency.
Wide Receivers
As many of you might remember, Wes Welker tore but his ACL and MCL during the Week 17 game last season. During the offseason, people were saying that they would be shocked if they saw Wes Walker play in another game before November of this year. Well, to those people I would like to say to them “Start practicing your shocked face!” To my knowledge, Wes Welker seemed to progress very well in the offseason and is starting to take hard hits in training camp. Many are starting to say that he could be ready to go by the first game of the season. But if he does happen to sit out the first few games, then they will need to count on aging veteran Randy Moss and young Julian Edelman that much more to carry this unit. Assuming Moss as the No. 1 and Edelman, seen as something of a Welker-in-the-making, as the No. 2, someone needs to step up as a viable No. 3, which is something the Patriots didn’t have much of last year. This is where Brandon Tate and rookie Taylor Price enter the mix. Oh, and there’s this other guy named Torry Holt who has been added as well. I hear he’s had a very successful career. The tight end is one position that the Pats don’t pay attention to often, but with the team grabbing Rob Gronkowski in the draft and Aaron Hernandez in the NFL Draft, that could change. Tom Brady has shown that he can handle a group of mediocre receivers, and right now that’s what this group is. Two players who have had stellar careers that are now starting to wind down and a host of others still learning the ropes of the offense.
Offensive Linemen
This is another group that is getting up there in age but is still a pretty solid group as well. They only gave up 18 sacks last year which is very impressive. I’m sure Tom Brady loved that after tearing up his leg in the first game of the season in 2008. Left tackle Matt Light will likely start the season in his usual spot, but Sebastian Vollmer, who impressed many last year as a rookie, could start at right tackle early. He could even challenge Matt Light for his spot. In the prime of his career at age 28, Logan Mankins is one of the best right guards in the game. But he’s been holding out of camp, so we’ll see what happens there. The more significant issues are at center and right guard. Dan Koppen always undersized, has been getting pushed off the ball more and more, and Stephen Neal very nearly called it a career. Dan Connolly is versatile and highly thought of in New England. He heads a young group of reserves with Mark LeVoir, Ryan Wendell, Rich Ohrnberger and Ted Larsen and Thomas Welch, who were picked up in the draft.
Defensive Linemen
The Patriots’ defensive success has always started with the O-line, so the fact that the defense struggled in 2009 can be traced back to a major hole on the line. Once Richard Seymour was moved to Oakland, the Pats didn’t have a player near his stature to put in place. Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork are both pretty good, but they won’t get a great deal of attention if another guy is brought in. Mike Wright has shown signs of promise, but he’s nothing like Richard Seymour. Ron Brace could be bumped outside after originally being a nose tackle. And given the personnel they have, the Patriots could play more 4-3 this year. But as the unit stands, the Pats will likely lack the ability to consistently push blockers back and close the pocket on the QB.
Linebackers
The wild card in this group is second-round draft pick Brandon Spikes. If Spikes can step in alongside Jerod Mayo at inside linebacker, the Pats could have the chance to move Gary Guyton to the outside, where the team is lacking depth. Guyton is very quick and very good in coverage but isn’t very strong against the run. This is the reasoning for putting him in the outside. 10-sack man Tully Banta Cain (one of my favorite names in the NFL), is the top returning pass-rusher statistically, though draftee Jermaine Cunningham could help and Pierre Woods, who got less playing time last year, can mix things up too. To sum up this whole picture, this unit is not as great on paper as it has been in the past. Unlike the D-Line, this is the weakness of the Patriots’ defense.
Defensive Backs
The success of the secondary will mostly depend on the success of the front seven. If the front seven isn’t doing its job, the secondary will struggle. Leigh Bodden is coming off his best seasons under Romeo Crennel when they were both in Cleveland; Crennel’s system is very similar to Beilchick’s, and Bodden should show even more confidence this season after a five-interception perfomance last year. Second-year cornerback Darius Butler will likely start opposite Bodden, with Jonathan Wilhite and rookie Devin McCourty in the mix at the nickel position. Terrence Wheatley is considered by some in the organization to have more talent than Wilhite, but he was in a strange sort of exile last year and played just five games. Brandon Meriweather has been making a lot of progress, and ever-steady free safety James Sanders keeps the unit on the same page.
Special Teams
The punting has been lacking over the years for the Patriots. But with the addition of former Michigan Wolverine Zoltan Mesko, that could change. Many say that he has a good personality. If his attitude is as good as his punts, the punting situations will work out great for the Pats. Stephen Gostkowski is one of the best kickers in the league for his combination of field goal and long kickoffs. Tate is expected to be the primary kick returner after a record-breaking college career.
Final Thoughts
Belichick has always found ways to get it done in New England, but this season could be a bit tougher with all the questions looming around the organization. Nobody thought that there would be coaching staff issues with this team, but there are. The questions on the field involve what the wide receivers’ depth chart will look like and how this defense will be shuffled around. With the Jets and Dolphins making quite a few moves in the offseason via the draft and free agency, it’s looking like things could be tough in New England. When it’s all over, they could find themselves as low as third place in the division.
Could you imagine the NFL Playoffs without the New England Patriots? It could happen.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
In our final part of the series, we move on to lesser known wide receivers who will likely get a chance to shine in the coming years.
In many cases, their chances will come through attrition above them on the depth chart.
In others, it may be due to an expiring contract and the team being unable to guarantee greater snaps or money.
For some, it may be a combination of the two. Franchise tags are not usually used on receivers, and the position is not one that sees many players rise to fantasy prominence after being traded or released.
The “third Year Rule” as it relates to WRs is one that is often followed by not just fantasy coaches, but the NFL as well.
This rule simply states that a WR is likely to realize their current and future NFL potential during their third year. This is due largely in part to the learning process involved with the receiving position.
The strength and speed of the NFL game, defensive formations, complexity and QB chemistry are all variables in the equation that must be mastered before true potential will be known.
There are certainly exceptions to this rule but, for the most part, it is hard rule to dismiss when looking at the history of the position.
On to our listing of those WRs who should be immediately considered:
No. 1 James Jones, GB
6’1″ 208 lbs.
Age: 26
We at DLF really hate the obvious choices who appear in “sleeper” articles. Hear me out a moment and give me a little flexibility with Jones appearing at the top of my list.
While there is little doubt that Jones is on an existing roster currently in your league, this selection is more about a player vastly outplaying his ADP (Average Draft Position).
Jones is being drafted far too late given his NFL skill-set, body and situation. The No. 3 wide receiver in Green Bay is again up for grabs as it was in 2009.
Once again, I have every expectation that Jones will emerge on top.
Moreover, with starting WR Donald Driver nearing retirement and his knees having reached retirement two years ago, this is more of a battle about Driver’s near term replacement than it is a simple No. 3 wide receiver role.
Jones is simply a playmaker at the position and should be lining up opposite Greg Jennings by year end. Jordy Nelson is better suited in a slot role and unless Jones struggles mightily with drops (which has been his history), this is where Nelson will end up.
If Jones is somehow on your free agent wire, stop reading this article and pick him up now! If you have an upcoming draft, including redraft, move Jones up significantly and draft him with confidence.
No. 2 Jason Hill, SF
6’0″ 202 lbs.
Age: 25
The stars are finally aligning for Hill.
With good size and a good NFL skill-set, Hill has been the odd man out of the Niner offense the last two years as he’s dealt with inconsistent QB play and a constant battle against the depth chart. That battle continues.
In 2009, the emergence of Vernon Davis and the eventual signing of Michael Crabtree dealt Hill’s playing time and production a major blow.
After seemingly having locked up the slot role in the budding offense for 2010, the Niner’s brought in Miami castoff Tedd Ginn, Jr. to immediately compete for the position.
Hill should finally break through these challenges and eventually win the No. 3 wide receiver role this season.
Regardless, Hill is a free agent in 2011 and should have more than a few bidders for his services when the time comes.
Hill is entering his fourth year so he is arguably behind when considering the three year rule but in some cases, this rule can be skewed because of situation.
Either way, I like Jason Hill’s potential for 2010, but like it even more for 2011 and beyond.
No. 3 Brandon Tate, NE
6’1″ 195 lbs.
Age: 22
Tate’s story is more about current opportunity than it is about future contract expiration and opportunity with a new club.
He’s been lighting up off-season activities after winding up on the IR in 2009.
Now fully recovered from his 2009 knee surgery and considering Wes Welker’s own recovery from a late-season 2009 ACL injury, significant snap opportunities should be available for either Tate or Julian Edelman.
Early reports have Tate commanding a great degree of praise as well. The coaching staff seems to have a desire for him to win the No. 3 wide receiver role.
Should this occur, Tate can be an effective producer in the Patriot offense as Brady is one to spread the ball around to all of his receivers.
While most slot WRs are not viable every week fantasy starters, Tate’s abilities are such that he could have future flanker ability as well as current slot productivity.
Being only 22, Tate will certainly add weight and experience going forward, making his second year in the NFL one that could put him a bit ahead of the three year rule for WRs.
Tate should be added immediately if you need a solid development prospect at the position.
No. 4 Kevin Ogletree, DAL
6’1″ 198 lbs.
Age: 23
If your name is Kevin Ogletree, you have to be frustrated. I feel for the kid.
Ogletree was a frequent mention in 2009 reports and has stood out time and time again in camp as someone who should be getting more playing time.
Unfortunately, every light at the end of the proverbial tunnel has been a train, first in the emergence of Miles Austin, then in the addition of Roy Williams and finally in the drafting of Dez Bryant.
Despite these roster movements that have held Ogletree back, he has generated enough buzz to eventually get his chance in Big D or explore free agency in 2012 when his current contract expires.
It’s not completely out of the question that Roy Williams is moved this season after eventually losing his starting role to rookie Dez Bryant.
If this occurs, it is likely due to the confidence that Jerry’s staff has in Ogletree’s ability to play in the slot. For me, this is a “when” scenario far more than it is an “if.”
Ogletree can be rostered immediately in deeper leagues if you have a development slot open or for any patient coach looking for a potential WR gem two years out.
No. 5 Sammie Stroughter, TB
5’10″ 189 lbs.
Age: 24
Like some of our aforementioned receivers in this article, Stroughter has been a victim of situation.
In Stroughter’s case, a youth movement in Tampa Bay has turned the depth chart upside down, providing opportunities for whichever receiver is willing to work hard enough to capitalize.
Antonio Bryant is already gone and Michael Clayton probably isn’t far behind. Other veteran names such as Reggie Brown, Micheal Spurlock and Maurice Stovall have failed to impress thus far in their careers.
Now the Bucs added collegiate stars Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn via the draft. It is not out of the question that both of these young rookies could find themselves starting sooner rather than later.
For Stroughter, it seems far more likely that his best opportunity will again be from the slot role. In his first year, Stroughter was able to amass 31 receptions, 304 yards, and one touchdown, not bad production for a rookie.
More importantly, he’s been praised by the young coaching staff for a good work ethic, speed and quickness and likely is very secure in his position.
Stroughter doesn’t project as much more than a slot receiver, but in the right system the slot receiver can be productive.
Whether or not this applies in Tampa is currently unknown but it’s something to keep track of.
Continue to monitor Stroughter throughout the preseason and add him once he has achieved the WR3 role.
Summary
This concludes our three part series on players “Waiting in the Wings.” There are always yet undiscovered gems on every NFL roster for the patient and detail-oriented fantasy coach who is willing to put in the work necessary to find them.
It takes a keen eye and effective roster management to know how and when to add these players, but those who find that balance will reap the rewards.
Take a look at the previous winners of your league and I bet you’ll find that those consistently at or near the top of the standings are those who do a lot of work in this area.
Article written by Jeff Haverlack
DynastyLeagueFootball.com
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Led by an explosive offense full of high-octane fantasy performers, the Patriots have been wreaking havoc on the rest of the AFC East for much of the past decade. With Tom Brady leading the way, Patriot players have helped many dynasty owners win championships in their respective leagues.
Simply put, New England has been fantasy heaven for dynasty league owners for as long as some can remember. A multitude of factors are finally turning the tables against their fantasy values in dynasty leagues, though.
To determine the dynasty value of players on New England, you have to ask a multitude of questions. How many elite seasons does Tom Brady have left? How will Randy Moss perform knowing this is likely his last season in New England? Will any player separate himself from the pack in a running back committee? Can Wes Welker return from his devastating knee injury?
We attempt to answer these questions and more in this wicked edition of the dynasty capsule.
Players in their Prime
Tom Brady QB
The silly questions about durability can stop. After missing virtually all of 2008, Brady returned to play all 16 games and post a line of 4,398 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in 2009. While that’s nowhere near his 50 touchdown bonanza from 2007, it’s still a fantastic season for a quarterback.
At age 32, he’s played more seasons than he has left, but he remains one of the few elite signal callers in fantasy football. It really wouldn’t surprise anyone if he led fantasy quarterbacks in scoring this season.
Randy Moss WR
There simply aren’t too many things scarier than Randy Moss in a contract year.
While he’s getting a little long in the tooth at 33, he’s shown no signs of slowing down. After scoring 47 touchdowns in his first three years in New England, the sky’s the limit for 2010.
Keep close tabs on his contract status, though.
If you’re not a contending team this season, Moss may be the ultimate midseason trade chip. You may not find a better window of opportunity to get value for him in dynasty leagues.
Wes Welker WR
The knee injury he sustained last year is obviously a huge concern with Welker. Word is that he’s progressing way ahead of schedule, but you have to take that with a grain of salt. While he may start this season on the PUP list, his long-term outlook is still bright.
He led the league in receptions with 123 and was on pace for a ridiculous 141 last season before the setback. As it was, his reception total of 123 was more than Steve Smith of the Panthers and Mike Sims-Walker of the Jaguars combined . It may take a while for him to return to form, but patience in dynasty leagues should be rewarded.
Rising Players
Brandon Tate WR
Speaking of injuries, Brandon Tate was regarded as the best North Carolina wide receiver prospect a couple of years ago before getting hurt. When you take into consideration that Hakeem Nicks was also on that team, that’s really saying something.
Tate has had his share of ups and downs, but is squarely on dynasty radars right now. If he continues to improve, he could take the place of Randy Moss in that offense one day.
Julian Edelman WR
Edelman showed he was capable of a bigger role when he replaced Welker at the end of the year. While his short-term value is tied to Welker’s injury and long-term value is tied to Moss’s contract situation, he could be a good stash in dynasty leagues.
Aaron Hernandez TE
Failed drug tests and character concerns dropped the talented Hernandez to the fourth round of the NFL Draft. He’s certainly a high-risk player, but his talent is undeniable.
He’s been lining up in multiple spots this spring and the Patriots seem to be trying to find some creative ways to get him the ball. He’s a fourth round draft prospect in a rookie-only draft.
Rob Gronkowski TE
While Hernandez may get more opportunities early, Gronkowski may end up being the better player in the long run. His durability is a concern, but he has first round NFL Draft talent.
Alge Crumpler and Aaron Hernandez stand in his way of playing time, but he’s another good player to target in the fourth round of a rookie draft.
Players with Falling Values
Laurence Maroney RB
There was a time when Maroney looked like a player to build a dynasty team around. Unfortunately, his lack of consistency and fumbling issues have destroyed any chance of that happening.
While the Pats surprisingly didn’t address the running back position in the draft, don’t view that as a sign of confidence in Maroney. It looks like a clear committee situation to avoid in New England for the foreseeable future.
Fred Taylor RB
Taylor is one of the most underrated fantasy performers in history. It’s regrettable that he hasn’t earned more accolades in dynasty circles. Unfortunately, it looks like his last ditch quest for a title may just fall short as well. Ankle surgery derailed his season last year and the prideful Taylor is going to find himself fighting for a roster spot at this point.
Torry Holt WR
The similarities to Taylor and Holt are pretty obvious. Both are likely beyond the twilight of their careers, and both are going to be fighting for playing time. If you’re expecting a Randy Moss-like career renaissance from Holt, you’re going to be left disappointed.
Sleeper
Taylor Price WR
Price isn’t huge at just 6’1”, but he has 4.4 speed and is more polished than most rookie wideouts. With the unknown future of the wide receiver depth chart in New England, Price is a sneaky pick in rookie drafts.
Summary
The personnel may be similar, but these are not the same Patriots we’re used to seeing. After looking disinterested in a loss to the Ravens, there are many questions about the future of this franchise. Most of their problems are on the defensive side, but the offense still has some work to do as well.
While they may seem to be a team in flux, we’ve learned not to underestimate this franchise. The dynasty values of many players hang in the balance, but there aren’t too many teams you’d bet on turning things around more than New England.
If they come back focused and healthy, there may not be a team with more dynasty league gems than the Pats.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
The New England Patriots under Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s reign had never lost an opening round playoff game. The New England Patriots themselves had never lost a playoff game in Foxboro since 1978. That all came crashing to a halt on January 10, 2009 against the Baltimore Ravens.
Despite Joe Flacco only attempting to pass the ball 10 times during the horrid game (at least to the eyes of the Patriots hopeful) the Ravens came away with a 33-14 victory.
The Ravens dominated the game from the beginning with Ray Rice bursting through the Patriots defense with an 83 yard touchdown run, the longest the Patriots had given up all season. A run defense that showed vulnerabilities during the regular season was gashed for a stunning 234 yards on the ground.
Tom Brady played the worst game of his playoff career throwing three interceptions and boasted an atrocious 49.1 passer rating.
After the loss, the pundits quickly jumped off the Patriots’ bandwagon after crowning them Super Bowl Champions prior to that season. They proclaimed “the end of an era,” and employed “the death of a dynasty” as their headlines and the crux to their hypocritical articles. They called Brady washed up and some fans seem to be under the impression that Brady is on a decline and getting “old.”
The media has a very fickle mind. They’ll exaggerate anything as long as it fits their agenda and aids selling newspapers, gaining TV watchers, and web page hits on the internet.
The New England Patriots are not on the decline—and neither is Tom Brady.
The Patriots’ struggles this year are a combination of coordinators, free agents, and players leaving the team and the replacements not being able to produce at the same level as their predecessors.
The downfall of the New England Patriots is quite simple.
The lack of a consistent contributor at the third wide receiver position, the offense’s inability to produce touchdowns in the red zone, poor halftime adjust by the offensive coaching staff, and the defense’s inability to produce stops at crucial junctures of play as well as produce ample pressure on the quarterback proved to be the Patriots’ Achilles heel(s.)
Five wide receivers started last year as Brady’s third receiver option (Aiken, Edelman, Galloway, Stanback, and Tate.)
Joey Galloway started the year as the third receiver option. The Patriots signed the guy in free agency in hopes that he would stretch the field and take the pressure off Randy Moss and Wes Welker. The experiment had a horrendous outcome.
Under the Patriots offensive system, a lot is asked of the receivers. In any given play, the receiver could run three different routes. That receiver has to be smart enough to comprehend which route he needs to run under different circumstances.
Galloway, like many receivers before him (e.g. Chad Jackson), had trouble comprehending the offense (as reported by the Patriots Football Weekly writers on their online radio show). This seemed to be the culprit between him and Brady not clicking at all.
His reluctancy to go over the middle didn’t help either.
After Galloway was a healthy scratch for a few games, he was cut. Then, the third receiver position was shared between Julian Edelman and Sam Aiken. Edelman started off the season great leading all rookies with 21 catches until he broke his arm in the blowout against the Tennessee Titans in Week Six of the season.
After Edelman hurt his arm, the Patriots activated Brandon Tate from the PUP list to play against the Buccaneers. Tate was only targeted once for an interception, a play Nick Caserio later described in a conference interview as Tate running the wrong route.
On the fourth drive of the next game, Tate re-injured his knee and was soon listed on injured reserve.
After the multitude of the injuries in the third wide receiver position, the Patriots signed Isaiah Stanback who saw playing time against the Colts in Week 10. Stanback started for the Patriots in the next two games against the New York Jets and New Orleans Saints.
Folks, if Isaiah Stanback is starting for your team, that doesn’t speak much about the depth you have at the wide receiver position.
Despite the lack of consistency at the third wide receiver position, the Patriots offense still managed to be the sixth most productive offense in the National Football League.
If the Patriots don’t catch the injury bug next season, the third receiver position, and the unit in general, will be on the strong points of the team.
During the off-season the Patriots signed veteran receiver Torry Holt who was under a very complicated offensive system in his years with the St. Louis Rams and is regarded as one of the best route running receiver of the last decade. Therefore, I doubt we’ll see a replica of the Joey Galloway situation.
The Patriots drafted Taylor Price in the third round of the 2010 draft. Price may seem like a raw project but I think he’ll be able to contribute in his rookie season. I’m optimistic that over time he’ll be a very productive receiver.
Brandon Tate is also returning to the unit and the 2009 third round pick is as healthy as he’s been in years.
Overall I don’t foresee the third receiver position being a problem this season if all of them stay healthy.
Five of the Patriots’ six losses last year could be attributed to one thing: the lack of offensive scoring in the second half. In those five loses the Patriots led the opposition going into halftime, but couldn’t hold those leads to win those games.
The Texans loss should be thrown out because Belichick said in his press conference after the game that the team didn’t go into the game with any “set plan.” This could be illustrated by his pulling of Tom Brady out of the game with a lead, only to put Brady back on the field after Brian Hoyer gave up a fumble returned for a touchdown at the one yard line. Brady was later pulled out of the game after the Texans regained the lead with two minutes to go.
The Patriots scored 282 points in the first half of games last year; they only managed 145 points in the second half. That’s almost half the drop-off of scoring between the two halves.
What can this be attributed to? The de-facto offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien.
The Patriots’ scoring differential between the two halves tells me that Bill Belichick and the offensive coaches came up with great game plans to score against the opponents early. But during halftime when Belichick has to make changes in his defense, Bill O’Brien and the offensive coaching staff were inept when it came to making the proper changes required to be successful.
We never saw problems like this during the Josh McDaniels and Charlie Weis eras. I do have hope that Bill O’Brien sees this problem and plans on fixing it. Belichick has mentioned in many interviews that O’Brian is a very bright guy so as of right now we all have to wait and see how he improves next season.
Another Patriots’ offensive inefficiency was their lack of production in the red zone. The Patriots were third in the league in red zone trips with 65; but were 13th in the league in touchdown conversion rate, only managing to score 34 touchdowns out of 65 trips for a 52.3 conversion rate.
The main reason why the Patriots struggled so much in the red zone could once again be traced to the lack of consistency at the third wide receiver position. It may also have to do with the spread offense they utilize.
The spread offense is exactly what its name says—it spreads the offense out. But the red zone is a confined space; you can’t really spread the offense out. When your only options are Moss and Welker, it becomes quite easy to shut them out.
Teams know that Welker is going to be lined up in the slot. And let’s face it, Welker’s straight line speed is among the worst for starting receivers in the NFL, and his 5’9” frame doesn‘t help either. So shutting down Welker in the red zone isn’t very hard for teams to do—they just double him with a safety and linebacker.
Moss is the Patriots best red zone target but he can’t always be the one pulling in the touchdowns.
Ben Watson was second on the team in receiving touchdowns despite not getting targeted much, but he lost Brady’s trust a long time ago with his inconsistent route running and hands that are made of stone.
Bill Belichick addressed this situation in the draft when he drafted two versatile TEs in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
Gronkowski will be the in-line TE who will be responsible for both blocking and catching, much like Jason Witten of the Dallas Cowboys. His 6’6” 265 pound frame makes him an ideal target in the red zone.
Hernandez will assume the HB/TE role that Dallas Clark plays for the Colts. Hernandez played in a similar spread offense under Urban Meyer in college, so I don’t think route running will be a problem.
The good thing about both of these two tight ends is that they have very good hands—something their predecessors (Graham and Watson) lacked.
With the new tight ends and additions at receiver, the Patriots should improve on their red zone efficiency next season.
For the past two seasons, the Patriots defense needs have been evident. They have to produce a consistent pass rush.
The secondary is no longer a detriment to the defense, but rather a plus.
The Patriots have very good depth in the secondary. Brandon Meriweather, despite his inconsistent tackling has proven himself a very good safety.
Meriweather is backed by veterans James Sanders and Brandon McGowan with Patrick Chung emerging as a candidate to play alongside Meriweather after his rookie season.
Leigh Bodden has rejuvenated his career in New England and has proven himself a top 15 CB in the National Football League. Darius Butler should play alongside Bodden this season with Devin McCourty and Jonathan Wilhite competing for the third CB spot.
The Patriots’ secondary is in good shape, but it does not matter how good your secondary is if the QB is consistently provided with five to seven seconds to throw the ball. The defense isn’t going to get off the field or make crucial turnovers on a consistent basis.
The Patriots did draft Jermaine Cunningham in the second round to bolster the pass rush, but I don’t see him making much of an impact as a rookie. I think they’ll have to settle for what they got last season from their linebacking corps.
The Patriots, like any other team, have problems and weaknesses in their team. However, they have gone about fixing all of these problems. Whether the results will be positive has yet to be seen, nevertheless, you’d expect a team “on the verge of mediocrity” to have many apparent unsolved problems.
Overall, the Patriots main obstacle next year won’t be weaknesses on their roster but the daunting schedule they have to withstand.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
The Patriots should continue to be one of the better teams both in fantasy and reality, but they aren’t quite what they once were. Perhaps playing more of an underdog role is what they need.
Fantasy Playoffs Schedule : Somewhat difficult
If the Patriots play like they are capable of, their opponent doesn’t really matter. However, facing the Bears in Chicago (Week 14), the Packers at home (15), and the Bills in Buffalo (16) means they could have three bad weather games in the fantasy playoffs.
You should keep that in mind when deciding between Patriot players and someone you consider of equal value.
Five Star Fantasy Options
Tom Brady – Brady had a great season (65.7 completion percentage, 4,398 yards, 28 TD, 13 INT, 96.2 passer rating), especially when you consider he was coming off a serious knee injury. Don’t look for another 50 TD season, but he remains one of the elite QBs in the league.
Randy Moss – He’s playing for one last big contract. He can disappear a bit when teams get physical, but you know what you’re getting with Moss—1,000+ yards and 10+ TD.
Four Star Fantasy Options
None
Three Star Fantasy Options
Wes Welker – He can move up to four star option if he proves that his knee will be OK. He could also slide down to a two or one star option. It’s a matter of how he recovers, and you won’t know until down the road.
Patriots Defense/Special Teams – They always seem to be an opportunistic unit. They have some solid match-ups against the Bills twice (Weeks Three and 16), the Browns (9), and the Lions (12).
Two Star Fantasy Options
Laurence Maroney – I don’t love Maroney, but he’s probably the best option the Patriots have. Draft him for RB depth and ride him if he gets hot.
Julian Edelman and Torry Holt – If Welker is slow to recover, Edelman can be used to fill the void. Once Welker is back, Edelman will catch the ball, but consistency will be an issue. I don’t think Holt has anything left in the tank, but Belichick somehow squeezes the last bit of production out of veterans.
One Star Fantasy Options
Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, and Fred Taylor – Each of them will probably show some value at different points of the season, but you can’t rely on any of them.
Taylor Price and Brandon Tate – Keep these guys on your radar, but don’t bother drafting them until they have defined roles.
Alge Crumpler, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez – The Patriots have little to offer at TE. Look elsewhere.
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