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Every August as the summer winds down, the anticipation of football season grows. The highs and the lows, pure joy coupled with pure agony are the stops on the fantasy football roller coaster every fall. It all begins with the most exciting day this side of the Superbowl, the day of the fantasy draft.
The draft can very well determine the course that your team will follow for the rest of the year. If you miss on a player in the early rounds and you could be spending the rest of the season desperately raiding the wavier wire for suitable fill-ins. Anyone who has played at least one season can relate and this conundrum can be avoided with a quality draft.
So how do you put together a “quality draft”? The answer depends on what you consider “quality.” My definition of quality is drafting players who hold more value than their draft positions. For example, if you draft a player in the fourth round who produces more fantasy points than a player drafted in the second at the same position, then you drafted a quality player.
The Strategy:
There are many strategies that can be used when drafting a fantasy football team. One is to load up on a key position (usually RB) and hope to either score enough points with that position or trade some of the depth for other key position players later.
Which ever strategy you use, a good draft is the foundation for sustained competitiveness over the course of a season.
To complete a quality draft you have to pay attention to trends in the league and do a little homework about the teams in the league. For example, the NFL has become much more pass oriented in the last few years. When teams pass the ball more often Quarterbacks, receivers, and receiving running backs become more valuable.
This alters the conventional draft wisdom of solely loading up on running backs in the early rounds. With the passing offenses of today, you can ill afford to “pass” up the chance to acquire a top flight QB in the early rounds along with the quality running backs.
If you do not pick up a top QB your team will fall behind when the season hits its stride and teams start to open up their passing games.
Although running backs are still the anchor for your team, a lack of WR depth can derail your championship hopes fast. The last couple of years I have been burned by terrible WR years, by Steve Smith (CAR) in 2009 and Marvin Harrison/Santana Moss in 2008. Because of the fickle nature of the WR position you want to hold out on drafting your WR’s until your league starts picking them up, and once they do make sure to grab a couple fast.
You do not stand a chance to make the playoffs without a certified primary target at WR. WR has always been a source of trouble for my drafts in the past and I believe it is one of the hardest positions to get consistent production from.
This year I hope to target Colston, Reggie Wayne or S. Smith (NYG) as a second tier primary target. You want to choose a WR who is not any lower than the second option in the passing game like a Reggie Wayne or Larry Fitzgerald.
Do not get fooled by false targets such as Santonio Holmes, Santana Moss, or any receiver on the Dolphins (incl. Brandon Marshall). Recievers will look good on paper but will disappoint you on a weekly basis due to their teams reliance on the run and shaky quarterback play.
My super sleeper QB picks of the draft (I know they had good years in 09, but they will take another step forward):
Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, and Eli Manning and the deep sleeper….Alex Smith
So, as your draft progresses you want to make sure you fill your team with quality depth, especially at WR and RB. You also want to keep an eye on a QB as a bye week fill in and manage the rest of your teams bye week absences. The best bet is to look for the underrated backs or rookies poised to explode.
This year the list of under the radar RB’s include:
Arian Foster (HOU), Ahamd Bradshaw (NYG), Jahvid Best (DET), Beanie Wells (ARI), and Shonn Greene (NYJ).
As for the WRs set to explode on to the scene:
Michael Crabtree (SF), Pierre Garcon (IND), Jeremy Maclin (PHI), Johnny Knox (CHI), and possibly even Malcolm Floyd in the absence of Vincent Jackson.
I generally follow the following draft pattern to build a quality team:
QB/RB, RB/QB, RB, RB/WR, WR, TE/WR, TE,…the rest depth and Def.
It can be difficult to follow suit with a strategy when a draft is so dynamic and unpredictable, but keep your eye on the goal of building a quality team with consistent producers at multiple positions.
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I went to my local Subway restaurant to have some lunch the other day. I really needed a break from work, so I decided to go inside instead of using the drive-up.
What I thought about was both exciting and moderately disturbing. You see, I’ve found my mind never really leaves the world of fantasy football. This was just one more event that reinforced it.
As I looked at the menu, it was hard for me not to compare the different sandwiches to current players in dynasty leagues. I perused the list of Jared’s favorites, and I just couldn’t help myself.
The parallels for these fabulous gridiron footlongs are just so obvious.
Sandwich: Cold Cut Combo
Player Represented: Reggie Bush
You look at the cold cut combo at it excites you at first. Three delicious meats, all turkey based. It’s one of the cheaper ones, so it catches your eye quickly.
Reggie Bush is much the same.
You get it excited about him as you see his highlight reels. You think of all the ways he could help your fantasy team and listen to all the pundits saying “this is the year.”
In the end, it’s all just bologna.
Sandwich: Meatball
Players Represented: Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco
Do I really even need to go further?
Owens and Ochocinco teaming up has created one the most ridiculous circus-like atmospheres in league history. They have a chance to make history as either one of the most explosive duos we’ve seen, or as a pair who destroys a coaching staff.
Either way, it’s hard to argue they’re both not just a couple of meatballs.
Sandwich: Feast
Player Represented: Chris Johnson
The feast is one of the craziest sandwich creations known to man. It’s basically every meat and cheese found in the restaurant stuffed into bread with blunt force. In the end, it weighs about as much as you do.
The feast has everything, just like the player it represents.
Chris Johnson can run with power, is blessed with incredible speed, and can beat a team in just about every way imaginable. His athletic blend is like nothing we’ve ever seen before. There’s one other parallel here the Titans need to be aware of, though.
They’re both pretty expensive.
Sandwich: Veggie Delight
Player Represented: Eli Manning
I actually stray away from the veggie delight. I want something more sassy. Something more scandalous. The veggie is a little boring, but it’s certainly effective.
Eli Manning is much the same.
Manning is a valuable dynasty quarterback, but he just doesn’t come with glitz and glamour of other fantasy quarterbacks. Owners go crazy watching his demeanor on the field. He does help win games, though.
The good thing about Manning and the veggie is neither will blow up your stomach.
Sandwich: Buffalo Chicken
Player Represented: Trent Edwards
This one was easier than the meatball.
Dynasty owners cringe when they watch Trent Edwards play. His legendary knack for the check down and inability to throw the deep ball consistently for Buffalo have left many owners cutting bait with him.
This preseason has shown us a little different Edwards, but right now, his prior history of having a lack of courage labels him as an easy choice as the buffalo chicken.
Sandwich: Tuna
Player Represented: Brandon Marshall
Can you make a meatball out of tuna? We may just find out this season.
Brandon Marshall’s move from Denver to the Dolphins has been one of the biggest stories of the offseason.
He’s apparently doing his best to stay in the news.
His recent practice antics can’t be sitting well with the biggest tuna of them all in Bill Parcells. After everything Marshall has gone through, you’d think he’d know better and take advantage of his fresh start in Miami.
Hopefully he does.
Sandwich: Club
Player Represented: Ray Rice
The club has ham, turkey and roast beef. It’s a tasty blend that warms the tummy, but found in a more compact size than the enormous feast.
Ray Rice is a blend of his own as well.
He’s much like Chris Johnson in the fact he has a little of everything. He can run, catch, block, and score much like Johnson.
He’s not quite the feast, but he’s pretty close and won’t cost a customer or a fantasy owner in dynasty leagues quite as much.
Sandwich: Philly Cheesesteak
Player Represented: DeSean Jackson
With McNabb out of the picture, Jackson is arguably the most noteworthy of all the Philadelphia Eagles in fantasy football.
The cheesesteak is one of the premium subs on the menu at Subway, but it’s also only available for a limited time.
That brings us back to D-Jax.
Was his fantasy breakout performance in 2009 a limited time offering, or can he really repeat that explosive statistical season?
The parallels for the Philly Cheesesteak and the Philly player seem to be right on par.
Sandwich: BLT
Player Represented: LaDainian Tomlinson
I have to admit it. This one was all in the letters.
LT doesn’t remind me of bacon, lettuce, or tomatoes in any way I can think of. The letters represent his status in fantasy football and in dynasty leagues, though.
BLT = Bye LaDainian Tomlinson!
The next time you frequent your local sandwich shop, tell them DLF sent you. They won’t know what that means, but maybe it sounds cool to strangers.
Just make sure you don’t upset a spicy Italian.
For the complete set of strategic 2010 dynasty rankings, click below:
Strategic Quarterback Rankings
Strategic Running Back Rankings
Strategic Wide Receiver Rankings
Strategic Tight End Rankings
Strategic IDP Rankings
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As everyone starts to get amped up for their drafts, which will ensue over the next couple of weeks, we are working to provide coverage on as many key players as possible. From sleepers, potential busts, solid selections, and who to reach for and when, we are very diligent in giving our readers the players we feel are going to have the biggest impact in 2010.
With that being said, I wanted to highlight a few players to keep an eye on. You can view them as sleepers, no-brainers, or however you would like, and of course, their value is going to differ based on your league’s point setup. I am going to start a series focused on each position and the players outside of the top-tiered guys who you should focus on, and more importantly, what round(s) you need to be looking to scoop them up.
We will start with the most hallowed of all fantasy football positions—the running back. Now if you need help in determining whether to draft Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson, this article may not be for you. This will focus on those backs who most consider your No. 2 or potential flex player, if not a solid bye week filler.
Jonathan Stewart
Carolina is in a tough position this year. They have a head coach in the last year of a contract and essentially a rookie QB. The one thing they do have is a solid offensive line and two absolute studs at RB.
Deangelo will go off the board in the first round as he should. If you get Deangelo, getting Stewart in rounds five or six is essential. Stewart, because he is a backup, usually drops down boards, but keep in mind he had 1100 yards and 10 TD’s last season.
He had offseason surgery to correct some nagging injuries from 2009, which limited his numbers. Limited to 1100 yards and 10 TD’s? Be sure to read that twice if you need to.
He also had a 5.1 YPC average, which was up there with the best of the best. Additionally, Deangelo has some injury concerns, and when Stewart started, he went off to the tune of 130 yards and a TD per game.
Ryan Matthews
I would never recommend hanging your No. 1 spot on a rookie, but Matthews is going to have the potential to be a huge fantasy star this year. He has the tools, and in SD’s offense, he will get opportunities galore.
In PPR leagues, he is a great catch to backup or be a third starter. If you are a dynasty owner, he should definitely be at the top of your list as well.
Don’t expect anything huge early on, but Matthews will get the bulk of goal line opportunities. He will share the load with Darren Sproles, but expect Matthews to become the primary back, with Sproles becoming a change of pace option for the Chargers when the run game does sputter.
In rookie drafts or keeper leagues, he is a first round option. In other leagues, look for him in rounds three-to-five, depending on how fast RB’s are flying off the board.
Matt Forte
I mentioned him in my last article, and again, I am extremely high on Forte having a great bounce back year. In most rankings, I have seen him in the 30-40 range from a rankings perspective.
Forte is young and the Bears put some pieces in place this year to shore up the defense, which means the offense isn’t playing from behind nearly as much this season, so the Bears won’t always be pushed into a pass first, run second scenario.
If Forte is there in Round three or four, take him. He will once again be a solid No. 2, and don’t be shocked if by season’s end he isn’t someone back in the Top 10 for next year, from a fantasy perspective. He can catch passes as well and offers a great option for PPR leagues.
Ronnie Brown
Yes he is injury prone, but he offers a great option as a No. 2 or No. 3 back. He will be healthy, and the Dolphins will still be a run/wildcat focused team.
The big difference-maker here is that Chad Henne now has a legit top WR to throw to. Kyle Orton looked amazing at times last year, and part of that was due to Brandon Marshall. As Marshall helps extend the field for the Dolphins, opposing defenses won’t be able to stack the box and just focus on the Wildcat. Even out of the Wildcat, Brown will put up solid numbers in conjunction with Ricky “Sticky Icky” Williams.
Look for Brown in Rounds four-to-six if you have only one RB by that time.
Clinton Portis
Well he is low on draft boards and I can understand why, to some degree. Last season was a major disappointment, but let me outline a few things as to why it wasn’t just Clinton Portis.
The Skins O-Line was likely the worst in the league. Jason Campbell was beaten to a pulp and shipped off to Oakland, and Portis tried to be the normal workhorse, but finally had to put a hold on things due to injuries.
Portis essentially chose not to play towards the end of the season, for risk of a larger injury. The Skins were crumbling, and I think this was the best decision for him and the organization
Fast forward to 2010, and you see Portis as a big risk, and there certainly is some risk. However, if you can get Portis as your third RB for a Flex or as a bye week filler, you will be at the top of your league.
McNabb will give the Redskins a legit arm who can get the ball to speedster Santana Moss and the TE’s, which will make defenses back off the box. Portis regularly faced eight-man fronts and defenses which blitzed 60 percent of the time against the Skins.
When you have a terrible O-line and a QB with no confidence, there is not much any RB can do. The Skins have made major improvements in both of these areas, and the new
coaching staff and player additions will spark life into their players.
Those are just a few names to keep an eye on for draft day. I am always available for our readers via email at jd@hattywaiverwireguru.com and always welcome emails, whether it is for trades, draft strategy, lineup questions, etc. I am looking forward to helping our readers win more this year and feel free to contact me with anything fantasy football related.
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As disgruntled Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson and Chargers general manager A.J. Smith clash, hostility between the two oversized egos continues to grow.
Jackson is seeking a lucrative contract extension after he posted career highs receptions (68), yards (1,167), and touchdowns (9). But Chargers Pro Bowl left tackle Marcus McNeill is also demanding a pay raise, leaving Smith in a bind.
Chances are, Smith and the Chargers will pay McNeill because he is more vital to their immediate success. San Diego has Antonio Gates plus two potentially solid receivers in Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee, whom allow the Chargers to maintain a solid passing game sans Jackson.
If Jackson refuses to report to camp and continues his holdout past the August 20th deadline the Chargers have given him, a trade would appear to be the most logical solution. A.J. Smith has shown that he is far more concerned with winning than loyalty and caving into holdouts, (he let L.T. and Antonio Cromartie walk) so if the price is right, Jackson could most definitely be shipped off.
Obviously, there’s an abundance of concerns with a Vincent Jackson trade. First of all, he’s accumulated two DUIs, and will serve a three game suspension to begin the 2010 season, which brings up the ole “character concerns.” But look at Brandon Marshall and the Dolphins. The Fins looked past Marshall’s issues, and upon acquiring the Pro Bowler were instantly upgraded from borderline playoff contender to sleeper Super Bowl pick.
Secondly, whichever team acquires him will have to sign a hefty paycheck to get him on the field.
But there are a handful of teams who would infinitely benefit from Jackson’s services. If they surrender the cash and handle the character concerns, these five teams could improve anywhere from sub-.500 to Super Bowl contenders.
There was a time when Ricky Williams was considered the NFL’s premier disappointment, twice actually.
Mike Ditka handed over an entire draft for Williams’ services. For the New Orleans Saints, their new running back ended up being a reclusive underperformer. When the team picked him out of Texas in 1999, it was naturally assumed they had someone who was serious about football and who had 400 carry, 2,000 yard seasons in him.
They assumed they had a workhorse. But if there’s one thing Ricky Williams is, it’s his own man, and nobody’s to be pigeonholed. In New Orleans he flashed promise, but ultimately didn’t deliver.
So Williams was packaged for a series of Miami Dolphins draft picks, and began life anew in South Beach. The initial outlook was favorable.
Arguably, his high tide came in 2002, rushing for over 1,800 yards and 16 touchdowns. That was just his first season with Miami. There was no telling what kind of production the team could expect moving forward.
But you know the story. He got hurt. He smoked a lot of marijuana. He retired. He played in the CFL. It was the second time he employed a scorched earth policy on a team that had hedged its future on his motivation.
Now it’s 2010. Williams has inserted himself back into the Dolphins’ good books (or at least stayed off the bad ones). The team has massaged him into a running game that ranks among the league’s best, and Williams is poised to do big things.
Selected in front of Williams in 1999 was Edgerrin James. James was the consummate professional Indianapolis expected when they drafted him in front of Williams. He played hard and produced immediately.
Where is he now? Stuck on the NFL’s scrap heap. James is burnt out and been tossed aside. This raises the question: How is Ricky Williams still playing?
At 33, Williams is still a running back under NFL employ, which is a rarity in this era. His preservation is due to his own machinations, whether planned or not. Williams’ retirement and subsequent odyssey was the Ziploc baggie that has kept him fresh into the new decade.
James had 3,028 rushing attempts in his ten seasons. Williams has only 2,164. The numbers point to Williams’ relative youth.
Another running back in danger of flameout is LaDanian Tomlinson. For years, LDT set the pace for the San Diego Chargers. He was there everything, for lack of a better word. Now? He’s a fringe back who will fight for playing time with the New York Jets. And he’s two years younger than Williams is right now. Tomlinson has 2,880 rushing attempts in his career. Who would you rather draft for your fantasy team?
Williams is also fortunate enough to be behind one of the most potent offensive lines the Dolphins have had in recent years. There’s some transitioning going on between the tackles, but the team just completed a season that saw them rush for a cumulative 2,231 yards.
With Jake Long and Vernon Carey leading the way, the Dolphins are grinders, to Williams’ benefit. The offensive line is among the league’s strongest when it comes to moving the ball (the second-highest power ranking on Football Outsiders). They’ll keep Williams from absorbing more punishment than absolutely necessary.
Another factor increasing Williams’ value is Ronnie Brown’s mercurial career. The sixth-year man from Auburn has only one thousand yard season to his credit, and last season’s injury was exacerbated by his offseason DUI. Though it’s irrelevant to his health issues, the optics of the situation make Williams appear to have the inside track on the number one spot.
Then there’s Miami’s shiniest acquisition, Brandon Marshall. With him in the fold, Miami will look to pass more to justify their investment. Chad Henne is growing up quick, and his new target will insure that he’ll have a home for wayward passes. Not only does this keep Williams’ legs fresh, but it adds an element of unexpectedness that only the Wildcat really provided last season.
Finally, most of the credit for Williams’ effectiveness this late in the game is himself. If he’s lost a step, it’s a small one, because last season’s production equalled anything he did six years ago. Though the sheer numbers aren’t present, the ones he does put up are economical and exactly what the team needs from him. He’s also the only back since Emmit Smith, Walter Payton, and OJ Anderson to have a thousand yard rushing season after turning 32.
Now he wants to stay in Miami another season. The NFL’s mores would normally have Williams left wanting, but there’s nothing really normal about Ricky Williams. That we’re even having this discussion is baffling.
But considering the long, strange trip it’s been, isn’t their room for another season of Ricky?
More good stuff @ http://scrawnfootball.blogspot.com/
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