Archives
Every fantasy season there are a handful of players that get taken early who turn out to be busts.
The reasons for being regarded as a bust can range from injuries to supporting casts not living up to expectations, all the way to the player himself simply not getting the job done.
Like clockwork, this season will be sure to have at least a handful of guys who are taken in the top three rounds that end up not proving their worth while some guys taken in the later rounds rise to the top.
In this article I wanted to highlight a few players who you should keep high on your target list and not be scared to go after simply because of their lackluster 2009 performance. After going through a number of draft rankings, here are the guys who stood out to me to not lose sight of.
Tom Brady
I see Brady slipping down draft boards everywhere. Remember, this is the same Tom Brady who absolutely annihilated fantasy scoring just two years ago, and he still has the big-play threat with Randy Moss. Their O-line finally had to overcome some injuries, and their defense was a little less powerful than in past seasons.
With Wes Welker and Moss, not to mention the addition of sure-handed veteran Torry Holt, don’t be surprised if Brady ends up at the top of the QB rankings at season’s end. Don’t be afraid to reach for Brady as early as Round Three if top-tier RBs and WRs are off the board.
Matt Forte
Probably 2009’s biggest bust from a fantasy standpoint, Forte was expected to be among the APs and CJs of the fantasy world. Keep in mind he still had 258 carries and just shy of 1,000 yards. He didn’t find the end zone as much, but Jay Cutler throwing 26 INTs limits your opportunities as well.
Keep Forte as an extremely solid second RB option in the second and third rounds, and you will be thankful come playoff time.
Santana Moss
Moss had a very down year last year with the Redskins in a tailspin and Jason Campbell working to miss him every other play. The Eagles’ offense wasn’t record-shattering last season, but look at what DeSean Jackson did. Moss has speed similar to Jackson and can be the deep ball threat the Redskins will need. Look for Moss as an extremely solid No. 2 or No. 3 WR with a lot of upside for this year.
Matthew Stafford
The Lions made some serious moves in the offseason to upgrade their talent level. They could very well be the most improved team in 2010 (not that it would take a lot), and Matt Stafford has a solid RB, much better O-line, and a great wideout in Calvin Johnson that will help him have a great sophomore year. Keep Stafford high on your board for a high-quality No. 2 QB.
Ahmad Bradshaw
Yeah, Ahmad is the second-string guy now, but you can bank on Brandon Jacobs going down with injury. He is getting older, and he is a battering ram type of back, which means his injury risk goes way up.
Grab Bradshaw as a high-quality No. 3 back, and depending on your draft position, consider even taking him as your No. 2. By Week Four he will be getting the third down and goal line carries at a minimum and likely be the starter with Jacobs not being 100 percent.
Steve Smith (Carolina)
The only risk with this guy is that his QB is a little unproven. Rest assured John Fox’s job is on the line, so he is going to do everything in his power to get Smith the ball. Smith was a top-three WR going into last season, but a little Jake Delhomme and you see him in the 10-15 range this season. Steve Smith is a beast of a receiver and is probably the most solid No. 2 you will ever have.
A Few Extra Guys
Fred Davis
Mike Shanahan will be running more two-TE sets, which means that Chris Cooley and Fred David will get more looks at the same time as well, which I think benefits Davis more than Cooley. Expect McNabb to look Davis’ way in the red zone a lot this year. If L.J. Smith or any other TE Philly had the past 10 years could catch, they would have been All-Pro. McNabb loves the TE in the red zone.
Mason Crosby
Now I almost never draft a kicker unless I have to and would never tell you to take one before Round 13 at a minimum, but once the other goons in your league draft kickers starting in Round Eight, keep Crosby circled. The Green Bay offense is going to be nice this year, and Crosby will get you 3-5 minimum each week and likely average around 8-10, which is quality for that position.
Washington Redskins
This squad was one of the premier defenses in the league last year, led by London Fletcher. The only reason their rankings were middle of the pack was because they were on the field on average about 40 minutes a game due to the offensive issues.
Albert Haynesworth will adapt and put up one of the best seasons of his career. The secondary got much better, and the LB corps was already one of the better ones in the league. If you miss out on the top-tier D’s, don’t be afraid to go after the Skins’ defense.
That is two QBs, two WRs, and two RBs with some specialty positions thrown in for you to highlight going into your draft. Please feel free to email me if you have any questions on players, draft strategy, rankings, teams, etc….I am always here to help.
JD Dowell
Need a draft guide? Check out the $5 Hatty Waiver Wire 2010 Draft Guide.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
Ahmad Bradshaw was clearly the better running back for the Giants last season as Brandon Jacobs struggled with a knee issue. This offseason Jacobs had some clean up work on his knee, and some wondered if a return to the top 20 fantasy backs was in the making.
Audio: Ahmad Bradshaw To Start Over Brandon Jacobs? | 2010 NFL Fantasy Outlook
Even though Bradshaw had a 4.8 yard per carry average last season, he too had to have minor cleanup surgery on his ankle and both feet. While I still liked Bradshaw as a sleeper running back this season, I couldn’t help but rank Jacobs as the better back to have early in the summer.
Training Camp Begins
To my surprise, Bradshaw has been the tailback running with the first team in New York and not Jacobs. It now looks like the Giants may be gearing up for a Julius Jones/Marion Barber approach in the running game this season.
2010 Fantasy Outlook For Bradshaw and Jacobs
For Bradshaw, a starting gig would make this tailback a solid fantasy option to have on your roster. Hecould be a flex play option right away.
Since the Giants play against the Panthers to open the season, it might be a time to take advantage of the Panthers’ front line. Injuries and key losses have put the Panthers in a small rebuilding phase up front and teams should take advantage of them in the running game.
As for Jacobs, he should still make for a flex play start right away. He will be the clear man for touchdowns and should get the football around 15 times a game, even if he doesn’t start. Using Bradshaw early could help soften the defense so Jacobs can take advantage of a tired group.
Assuming Jacobs can play at a respectable level, he should be primed to rush for around 1,000 yards and score double digit touchdowns.
NFL fantasy football player rankings writer Sean E. Douglas: fantasy-info.com
For more fantasy football news and advice feel free to follow and interact with us at our facebook, twitter and blog talk radio pages. Good luck, in your 2010 fantasy football league. Music is provided by: Jason Shaw @ audionautix.com
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
We already previewed the deep sleeper running backs, guys who should be on your radar, but not necessarily your roster (click here to see the article). This group of RBs are guys that you will draft for RB depth, but could end up being your fantasy saviors.
Tim Hightower, Arizona Cardinals (ADP 117)
Beanie Wells is the Cardinals back that everybody is clamoring for, but Hightower had more total yards (1026 to 936) and TDs (8 to 7). Hightower had 10 TDs in 2008 so even with a reduced role, he could still be in line for carries at the stripe. Given Beanie’s track record with injuries, Hightower could even see a few starts.
Chester Taylor, Chicago Bears (ADP 119)
Chester will be 31 in September, but he doesn’t have a lot of wear on his tires. He has topped 160 carries just once in his eight year career. Like Forte, he is capable of running between the tackles and catching the ball out of the backfield. Plus, he is familiar with his divisional foes. This is a make-or-break year for Lovie Smith so if Forte struggles, Taylor will get a shot.
LenDale White, Denver Broncos (ADP 182)
He will miss the first four games with a suspension, but if the injuries continue in Denver, LenDale could see his first share of meaningful snaps since 2008.
Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions (ADP 199)
Smith is coming off an ACL tear and the Lions drafted Jahvid Best, but Smith is a guy who has accumulated 1723 yards (2424 total) and 13 TDs (12 rushing) in 29 games. Best too is an injury concern so don’t be surprised if Smith gets some starts this year.
Steve Slaton, Houston Texans (ADP 96)
Arian Foster and Ben Tate appear to be better suited to be every-down backs, but the Texans are a pass-oriented team and Slaton has 94 catches in two seasons. Even in a forgettable year he caught 44 balls for 417 yards and four TDs. Assuming he stays healthy, Slaton will make an impact for the Texans in 2010.
Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts (ADP 95)
While I caution you not to be took quick to write-off Joseph Addai, I also caution you not to overlook Donald Brown. He is the Colts’ future at RB and will get a bigger chance to show his worth.
Thomas Jones, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP 90)
Speaking of guys who have been wrote-off too early, people have been singing Jones’ Swan Song for years. The Bears couldn’t bury him. The Jets couldn’t bury him. As good as Jamaal Charles, aka Chris Johnson Lite, was last year, I don’t think they brought in TJ to babysit. He will get his touches, most notably at the stripe.
Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants (ADP 82)
Brandon Jacobs could have a monster comeback season or he could continue to disappoint. The jury is out. Meanwhile, Bradshaw could end up being the feature back for a team that will be looking to run more in 2010. He could be a steal in the seventh round of fantasy drafts.
LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets (ADP 112)
Does LT have anything left in the tank? The Jets are gambling that he does. It is Shonn Greene’s turn now, but he has to show that he can stay healthy and score TDs. Two things that LT has been able to do his whole career. He doesn’t have the burst he once had, but the Jets do have an outstanding offensive line.
Darren McFadden & Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders (ADP 77 & 84)
Run DMC is on the fringe of bust status after injuries, ineffectiveness, and JaMarcus Russell’s ineptitude have held him to 856 yards and five TDs in two seasons. He has salvaged some value by catching 50 passes for 530 yards, but he is still waiting to deliver on his expectations both with the Raiders and fantasy owners alike. Meanwhile Bush, who actually has fewer total yards (1277 to 1386) than McFadden, is regarded in many fantasy circles as the better NFL back. They figure to be a pretty evenly split RBBC, but if one goes down with an injury, the other could see a huge increase in value thanks to the stability Jason Campbell should bring at QB.
Darren Sproles, San Diego Chargers (ADP 116)
Ryan Mathews is all the rage, but Sproles is a dynamic playmaker that could combine for 1000 total yards and 6+ TDs. If Mathews struggles, Sproles could see an even bigger role.
Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks (ADP 113)
Forsett is another undersized back that could put up a healthy total yardage number. He should be particularly busy in the passing attack.
Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP 211)
Ward was a free agent disaster for the Bucs last year, but don’t bury him just yet. Some of his struggles can be attributed to a knee injury. Cadillac Williams has had more than his share of injuries so Ward will be in the mix, and could take over if the Caddy goes in the shop again.
Larry Johnson, Washington Redskins (ADP 178)
LJ’s season can go either way. He could be sent out to pasture or he could reclaim some of his glory if Clinton Portis is the one sent out to pasture. You should be able to wait the bulk of your draft before selecting him, so even if he’s a miss, it likely won’t do too much damage.
Also check out:
- 2010 Top 30 Fantasy QB Rankings
- 2010 Top 50 Fantasy RB Rankings
- 2010 Top 60 Fantasy WR Rankings
- 2010 Top 25 Fantasy TE Rankings
- 2010 Top 25 Fantasy IDP Rankings
- 2010 Top 25 Fantasy Team Defense Rankings
- 2010 Top 15 Fantasy K Rankings
- 2010 Fantasy Football Top 50 Rankings
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
Before I begin, I’m nearing the middle of this series. This will be the fourteenth team I’ve previewed since the beginning of last week. I’ve gotten very good feedback from this so far, even if it is calling me an idiot. Once again, I’d like to remind you I stole this directly from ESPN’s Mike & Mike; same format just my answers. So here you go Giants fans, here is your season preview!
1.) Is Eli Manning one of the NFL’s elite QB’s?
I’m really getting sick of agreeing with Mike & Mike, but he isn’t. He is a good quarterback, not elite. He just isn’t his brother, Tom Brady or Drew Brees. To me, his leadership still is not up to par with elite NFL QB’s. His body language is terrible and that sends a negative message to the rest of the team. I realize that sounds really dumb, but he doesn’t act like a leader. I like Eli Manning and I’d take him over two thirds of the starting QB’s in the league, but he is not an elite quarterback.
2.) Can Brandon Jacobs recover from an ”unJacobs” like season?
I think so. Last season he was nicked up by injuries. He and Bradshaw are a good combo. His running style is like Adrian Peterson, except Peterson has better speed. I like Brandon Jacobs and he really fits this team well.
3.) Is the offensive line still one of the top units in the league?
This line is really aging and that started to show last season. We saw the age turn into injuries. Maybe its time to start rebuilding this line in the next couple drafts.
4.) Can the G-Men’s defense bounce back from a forgetable year?
They won the Super Bowl two years ago because of the great pass rush. They were stacked with injuries last season. Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiori were hurt, Antonio Pierce is now replaced with Kieth Bulluck. I really like Bulluck, he is a very underrated player. However, he is aging. Kenny Phillips was out last season and should help the secondary. This group will be better, but not up to the 2007 and 2008 standards.
5.) Record?
If your a Giants fan, you may not be to pleased with my prediction: 7-9, last in the NFC East.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
Before I begin, I’m nearing the middle of this series. This will be the fourteenth team I’ve previewed since the beginning of last week. I’ve gotten very good feedback from this so far, even if it is calling me an idiot. Once again, I’d like to remind you I stole this directly from ESPN’s Mike & Mike; same format just my answers. So here you go Giants fans, here is your season preview!
1.) Is Eli Manning one of the NFL’s elite QB’s?
I’m really getting sick of agreeing with Mike & Mike, but he isn’t. He is a good quarterback, not elite. He just isn’t his brother, Tom Brady or Drew Brees. To me, his leadership still is not up to par with elite NFL QB’s. His body language is terrible and that sends a negative message to the rest of the team. I realize that sounds really dumb, but he doesn’t act like a leader. I like Eli Manning and I’d take him over two thirds of the starting QB’s in the league, but he is not an elite quarterback.
2.) Can Brandon Jacobs recover from an ”unJacobs” like season?
I think so. Last season he was nicked up by injuries. He and Bradshaw are a good combo. His running style is like Adrian Peterson, except Peterson has better speed. I like Brandon Jacobs and he really fits this team well.
3.) Is the offensive line still one of the top units in the league?
This line is really aging and that started to show last season. We saw the age turn into injuries. Maybe its time to start rebuilding this line in the next couple drafts.
4.) Can the G-Men’s defense bounce back from a forgetable year?
They won the Super Bowl two years ago because of the great pass rush. They were stacked with injuries last season. Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiori were hurt, Antonio Pierce is now replaced with Kieth Bulluck. I really like Bulluck, he is a very underrated player. However, he is aging. Kenny Phillips was out last season and should help the secondary. This group will be better, but not up to the 2007 and 2008 standards.
5.) Record?
If your a Giants fan, you may not be to pleased with my prediction: 7-9, last in the NFC East.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
