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Here’s a fantasy football sneaky sleeper I really like: Chargers WR Malcolm Floyd.
With two DUI convictions in two years, Vincent Jackson will likely be suspended at some point this summer. “V-Jax” will probably be hit with a four-gamer making Floyd a guy I’d begin to target around the 11th round as my fifth or sixth WR.
In those four weeks, Floyd will face the second easiest schedule with match-ups vs KC, Jac, Sea, and Ari. Those teams gave up an average of 35 points a games to WRs.
I’ve always liked Floyd but behind Gates, V-Jack, and the backs. He doesn’t get a lot of looks. But in Week 17 last year as SDs number one WR, Floyd put up nine catches for 140 yards, a cool 23 points in PPR. Also, at 6’5″, he’s a huge red zone target.
He likely won’t have much value after that, but I’d start him as my flex for those first four weeks.
Follow John on Twitter, www.twitter.com/fantasylion.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
It has been a strange, if not downright weird, few weeks here at the Brotherhood. First and foremost I am happy to announce and welcome another new member to the Brotherhood. Welcome to the Brotherhood Jason Daniel Michaud. This young man also doubles as my first nephew. I hope to see him helping us out with our 2020 draft kit.
As some of our readers might know our site was brought down by a hacker, our Director of Technology, who also just happens to be the father of J.D., has assured me that our site is again 100 percent safe and locked down. Now GoDaddy has some questions that need to be answered, but I will save that rant for another day. We again apologize to any of our reader’s that were inconvenienced by this brief interruption.
While we have been preparing our draft kit, putting together profiles, and doing hours upon hours of research, the ‘Hood has been able to break up all the writing with a few expert drafts that are still in progress. Please feel free to check out both leagues. One is a full Dynasty IDP league . We are in the middle of the rookie draft portion. I picked eighth in the rookie draft and went with LB Rolando McClain. I was hoping a back would slide back to me, but there was no chance of that happening.
The other league is also new, it is a Dynasty IDP auction league . The ‘Hood has two teams in this league, and just let me say that there have been some shady moves by one of the teams (Fantasy Football Brothers II), with crack pot ideas and silly conspiracy theories flying around. The auction draft cardinal sin has also been broken: Bidding another owner up out of spite because Rob and I were building a juggernaut. Thankfully, cooler heads have prevailed, but there is a long way to go in this draft.
This list is our first positional ranks of 2010. After the recent draft our ranks have a new look, with the addition of some promising rookies and also some guys on new teams following a few draft day trades. I didn’t put the rookies into our ranks this month, but they will be ranked in the months that follow. I have ranked them separately and gave a brief writeup to piece together where they would fit into these ranks.
Ryan Mathews-S.D.
Mathews will enter 2010 as the No. 1 rookie back and I like him a ton, as some of you might know from reading our NFL mock drafts. Mathews will see a minimum of 250 carries, barring any unforeseen circumstances. I would easily put him in the Top 15 right now. There is no one on the Chargers roster to threaten his touches, with the exception of Darren Sproles, who is nothing more than a third down back. The path is clear for him to be a RB1 and likely offensive rookie of the year. The Chargers and Norv Turner love to run the ball, after all it is his modus operandi.
Ben Tate-HOU
Tate will have to battle second year man Arian Foster for the starting job. Foster has some talent but Tate is built for this run friendly offense. Tate has power and speed and, if he is able to beat out Foster, Tate could be a quality RB2/Flex player. Also keep an eye on the progress of former starting back Steve Slaton, who suffered a nasty neck injury. Slaton will likely return to a third down/pass catching role. Tate would rank in the late 20’s early 30’s if he was on this list.
Jahvid Best-DET
Best has speed to burn, though his injury history is more than mildly concerning. He is a game changer and couldn’t have asked to land on a better team in the Lions. If RB Kevin Smith is still out with an injury, Best is likely to start and get a ton of touches, and he is also likely to split some duties with Maurice Morris. Best is not built for running between the tackles, but is a beast when put in space. He is an instant weapon in the passing and return game. Best would start out somewhere in the mid to late 20’s in our rankings.
Spiller might have been drafted first, but he will not be the first rookie back drafted in your league.
C.J. Spiller-BUF
Buffalo shocked the football world with this first round selection. The Bills have so many questions at other positions, like O-line and QB. This was not a need selection for a team that has a ton of needs. Add in the fact that the Bills spent a high draft pick a few years ago on Marshawn Lynch, coupled with the emergence of Fred Jackson in 2009, and this pick left many of us scratching our heads.
Spiller will never be an every down back, at least not until the RB logjam in Buffalo works itself out. He also needs to add a few pounds of muscle and show some durability. Spiller was occasionally dinged up, coming out of games with multiple injuries, but was usually able to return. He is a dual threat monster and can hit pay dirt from anywhere on the field. Spiller will likely take over the third down role/passing situations. He will return kick offs and probably punts.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Buffalo use him like Minnesota uses Percy Harvin. Spiller will see mostly carries, but he could find the field more than anyone is expecting if the Bills wisely use him in the slot. The receiving corps in Buffalo is not a strong group, outside of Lee Evans. Blessed with home run speed and great hands, he will make an immediate impact in Buffalo but his value in re-draft leagues leaves him somewhere in the mid-30’s.
Montario Hardesty-CLE
The Browns traded up in the second round to grab Hardesty at 59 overall. Hardesty has some potential but he was another back that was injured a bunch in college. I always worry about players that are banged up all the time in college, because we all know that the NFL is much tougher and plays a longer season. Making matters worse is the fact that he will be playing in the AFC North which is a tough, smash mouth division.
The good news is the Browns didn’t draft him to sit and get splinters in his rear end. He will push Harrison for playing time right away. James Davis will further complicate the Browns back field situation and the only thing that would make it even worse is if they run a ton of Wild-Cat plays with WR Josh Cribbs. All that being said, there is some upside to this rookie and he would rank somewhere in the middle 40’s.
MAY RANKS
Who else did you expect?
1) Chris Johnson—TEN—RB
2,000 Yards will be impossible to repeat, but 1,800 yards would still be the likely best in 2010.
2) Adrian Peterson—MIN—RB
Peterson had a bad case of fumbilitis in 2009, and ball security will be a huge concern this season. There were more than a few really concerning fumbles in 09.
3) Maurice Jones-Drew—JAC—RB
The Jags still don’t have anyone that is a threat to cut into his carries this year.
4) Ray Rice—BAL—RB
Rice would be three if I wasn’t so worried about the Ravens using him less to save him for later in the year. McGahee is a legit threat to his early season stats.
5) Steven Jackson—STL—RB
The Rams have improved across the board, now they just have to take some pressure off of the run game.
6) Frank Gore—SFO—RB
Gore is in position to have a great season, playing each of the NFC West teams twice.
7) Cedric Benson—CIN—RB
Benson will be 100 percent to start the season; don’t sleep on him.
Michael Turner—ATL—RB
Turner’s season was derailed by ankle injuries in 2009. Look for a solid bounce back from Turner and the Falcons in 2010.
9) DeAngelo Williams—CAR—RB
A healthy Jonathan Stewart could cut into his carries, but breaking in a new QB might mean enough carries for all.
10) Ryan Grant—GRE—RB
I told our readers last year that Grant was a Top 12 back and his four rushing touchdowns were an aberration. Result: Career-high 10 rushing touchdowns.
11) Pierre Thomas—NOR—RB
With Bell off to Philly, Thomas looks to break out this year.
No Willie P. should be a good thing.
12) Rashard Mendenhall—PIT—RB
Big Ben’s suspension and the departure of Willie P. will result in a ton of carries for the third year pro. I still personally don’t trust him 100 percent.
13) Jamaal Charles—KAN—RB
Charles broke out big time last year. How do the Chiefs respond? By signing Thomas Jones.
14) Beanie Wells—ARI—RB
I like Wells a ton this year, but as long as Hightower is the goal-line guy, temper your expectations.
15) Shonn Greene—NYJ—RB
Greene showed the potential that everyone was hoping for in the playoffs.
16) Joseph Addai—IND—RB
Addai continues to be underrated despite his play in a prolific offense. RB Donald Brown doesn’t scare me anymore.
17) Knowshon Moreno—DEN—RB
Moreno’s rookie year was okay, but his yards per carry towards the end of the year are concerning. RB Correl Buckhalter is still in Denver and will continue to cut into his value.
18) Thomas Jones—KAN—RB
Jones goes from a team that had a great O-line to one that has a shaky one, at best. That scares the hell out of me.
19) Matt Forte—CHI—RB
Forte went from a Top 10 back to barely making the Top 20. Everything about the Bears’ offense was brutal, from the QB play to the O-line, and the lack of development of receivers spelled doom for Forte.
20) LenDale White—SEA—RB
White has moved from a lousy situation in Tennessee to a potentially great one in Seattle. Being reunited with his old coach will only help White in 2010.
21) Ronnie Brown—MIA—RB
Brown was off to a great start that was once again derailed due to an injury. Draft with caution.
22) Jonathan Stewart—CAR—RB
Stewart was drafted late in most leagues last season because of injury concerns. Stewart wasn’t expected to suit up for the first game, but ended up playing and filled in for the injured D.Will at the end of the season.
Stewart can make it a 50-50 share if he is 100 percent healthy in training camp.
23) Jerome Harrison—CLE—RB
Harrison was a beast towards the end of ’09, but the Browns don’t appear to think that Harrison can handle the load after drafting Montario Hardesty. Also, there is still everyone’s not so super sleeper, James Davis, returning from a lost season.
24) Felix Jones—DAL—RB
Jones was made the starter this offseason, surpassing a struggling Marion Barber. If healthy, Jones can down right dominate—a big if.
25) Ahmad Bradshaw—NYG—RB
Bradshaw was able to pick up the slack of a banged up Jacobs and performed admirably. Has he maxed out his potential though?
26) Brandon Jacobs—NYG—RB
Jacobs played hurt all last year and his numbers, like his owners, suffered as a direct result.
27) LeSean McCoy—PHI—RB
Westbrook was out most of 2009 and McCoy did a decent job filling in. McCoy will be the starter for the Eagles, but how many touches he will see still appears to be up in the air.
28) Clinton Portis—WAS—RB
Portis was shut down due to a concussion in 2009. 2010 means that Portis will be reunited with his old coach Mike Shanahan and a RB friendly system. It looks like it will be his job to lose, but Larry Johnson and Willie Parker are right behind him.
29) Darren McFadden—OAK—RB
2010 will be a make or break year for the former No. 4 pick overall. Michael Bush will be lurking in the background, but it appears it is McFadden’s job to lose. Again.
30) Cadillac Williams—TAM—RB
Cadillac surprised many by leap frogging free-agent acquisition Derick Ward in the Week One depth chart. Williams played well and Ward never did anything to move past him during the season. The offense has improved but it is still very young. Look for Williams and Ward’s battle this offseason.
31) Fred Jackson—BUF—RB
Jackson was very effective, and sometimes dominating, while filling in for the suspended Marshawn Lynch. F. Jack eventually took the starting role over for the struggling Lynch. In 2010 the Bills drafted RB C.J. Spiller in the first round and never moved Lynch, further complicating the RB situation in Buffalo.
32) Fred Taylor—NEP—RB
Taylor was servicable, before being knocked out with an injury, and was never healthy again in 2009. 2010 is starting to look like a four man competition for carries, and what will most likely turn into another running back by committee.
33) Marion Barber—DAL—RB
Barber lost his starting job this offseason, but a back seat might be a good thing for him. If he can return to his old roll of goal line back, and get around 200 carries and 40+ passes, he could be a decent RB2/Flex option for owners.
34) Ricky Williams—MIA—RB
Williams again was asked to pick up the slack for the injured Ronnie Brown. Williams might be too old to be an every down back but he is a great backup, capable of putting up decent fantasy numbers.
Here we go again Bill!
35) Larry Johnson—WAS—RB
Johnson could excel in Shanahan’s one-cut system.
36) Reggie Bush—NOR—RB
Bush is a better option in PPR/Return leagues, but he could see more carries with the departure of Mike Bell. Bush saw a lot of the field in the red-zone.
37) Willis McGahee—BAL—RB
McGahee started 09 on fire, before losing a ton of work to Rice. McGahee’s role needs to be spelled out and if he is given a bigger role, he would easily move up in our ranks.
38) Justin Forsett—SEA—RB
Forsett broke out in 2009, but the trades for LenDale White and Leon Washington hurt his value.
39) Arian Foster—HOU—RB
Foster’s up and down play, coupled with Steve Slaton’s injury, led to the Texans’ drafting Ben Tate. Foster will have his work cut out for him this offseason.
40) Kevin Smith—DET—RB
Smith’s health is the biggest question heading into 2010. The addition of rookie Jahvid Best only further complicates the Lions backfield.
41) Maurice Morris—DET—RB
Morris could be in a three-way battle with Smith and Best come training camp. We will be watching this one closely.
42) Michael Bush—OAK—RB
Bush could be a monster this season if McFadden fails to win the starting job.
43) Chester Taylor—CHI—RB
Taylor has some potential to move up this list if he can be more effective than Matt Forte.
44) Donald Brown—IND—RB
Brown looks like he might just be the back up in Indy. He has the tools to fit in the Colts offense perfectly, but he has not been able to make the most of his chances.
45) LaDainian Tomlinson—NYJ—RB
How the mighty have fallen.
46) Laurence Maroney—NEP—RB
Maroney was given chance after chance to finally take over the lead role in New England and fumbled it away.
47) Correll Buckhalter—DEN—RB
Buckhalter did a decent job with his limited carries last season. Look for Buckhalter to continue to spell Moreno.
48) Sammy Morris—NEP—RB
Morris will be another player in the running back competition in New England.
49) Tim Hightower—ARI—RB
Needs to keep the goal-line job to have any value in 2010.
50) Mike Bell—PHI—RB
Bell could be the smash to McCoy’s dash in Philly, and looks to be the goal-line guy.
51) Derrick Ward—TAM—RB
Ward will have to have a great training camp to take over the starting role in Tampa.
52) Javon Ringer—TEN—RB
Ringer will play second fiddle to Johnson.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
These rankings are the top prospects that are first round caliber in the 2010 NFL Draft. These rankings are not which prospects will have the best NFL career (no one but apparently Mel Kiper can do that); rather, which first round prospects have the most potential.
1) Ndamukong Suh—DT/Nebraska
Impressive Combine: (5.03) – 40 time, (4.44) – Shuttle, (32) – Bench reps
Possible Destinations: STL, DET, TB, WAS, KC
2) Gerald McCoy—DT/Oklahoma
Impressive Combine: (5.04) – 40 time, (4.48) – Shuttle
Possible Destinations: STL, DET, TB, SEA, CLE
3) Eric Berry—S/Tennessee
Impressive Combine: (4.4) – 40 time, (43) – Vert jump, (4.2) – Shuttle
Possible Destinations: STL, DET, TB, WAS, KC
4) Russell Okung—OT/Oklahoma State
Impressive Combine: (38) Bench reps
Possible Destinations: STL, DET, WAS, KC, CLE
5) Sam Bradford—QB/Oklahoma
Impressive Combine: N/A
Possible Destinations: STL, KC, SEA, CLE, OAK
6) CJ Spiller—RB/Clemson
Impressive Combine: (4.27) – 40 time
Possible Destinations: SEA, BUF, DEN, SF, NYG
7) Trent Williams—OT/Oklahoma
Impressive Combine: (4.63) – Shuttle
Possible Destinations: WAS, KC, CLE, OAK, BUF
Derrick Morgan—DE/Georgia Tech
Impressive Combine: (4.77) – 40 time, (4.43) – Shuttle, (7.12) – Cone
Possible Destinations: SEA, CLE, OAK, BUF, JAC
9) Dan Williams—DT/Tennessee
Impressive Combine: (5.19) – 40 time, (8’00″) – Broad jump
Possible Destinations: CLE, BUF, DEN, SF, TEN
10) Dez Bryant—WR/Oklahoma State
Impressive Combine: N/A
Possible Destinations: CLE, OAK, BUF, DEN, JAC
11) Bryan Bulaga—OT/Iowa
Impressive Combine: (5.2) – 40 time, (4.75) – Shuttle, (8’02″) – Broad jump
Possible Destinations: OAK, BUF, SF, SEA, NYG
12) Earl Thomas—DB/Texas
Impressive Combine: (4.43) – 40 time, (21) – Bench reps, (9’05″) – Broad jump
Possible Destinations: BUF, SF, NYG, PIT, ATL
13) Rolando McClain—ILB/Alabama
Impressive Combine: N/A
Possible Destinations: DEN, JAC, NYG, TEN, PIT
14) Joe Haden—CB/Florida
Impressive Combine: (4.52) – 40 time, (35) – Vert jump, (10’05″) – Broad jump
Possible Destinations: BUF, JAC, MIA, SF, SEA
15) Ryan Mathews—RB/Fresno State
Impressive Combine: (4.37) – 40 time, (36) – Vert jump, (4.33) – Shuttle
Possible Destinations: SEA, NYG, HOU, NE, SD
16) Jimmy Clausen—QB/Notre Dame
Impressive Combine: N/A
Possible Destinations: OAK, BUF, JAC, SF, PIT
17) Anthony Davis—OT/Rutgers
Impressive Combine: (8’03″) – Broad jump
Possible Destinations: SEA, NYG, PIT, ATL, HOU
18) Mike Iupati—OG/Idaho
Impressive Combine: (5.24) – 40 time
Possible Destinations: TEN, PIT, HOU, NE, GB
19) Maurkice Pouncey—C/Florida
Impressive Combine: (5.25) – 40 time
Possible Destinations: HOU, GB, BAL, ARI, IND
20) Taylor Mays—S/Southern California
Impressive Combine: (4.31) – 40 time, (41) – Vert jump, (10’05″) – Broad jump
Possible Destinations: SEA, PIT, CIN, NE, PHI
21) Brandon Graham—OLB/Michigan
Impressive Combine: (31) – Bench reps
Possible Destinations: ATL, NE, PHI, ARI, IND
22) Jason Pierre-Paul—DE/South Florida
Impressive Combine: (4.71) – 40 time, (9’07″) – Broad jump
Possible Destinations: TEN, ATL, CIN, NE, PHI
23) Sean Weatherspoon—OLB/Missouri
Impressive Combine: (4.62) – 40 time, (34) – Bench rep, (10’03″) – Broad jump
Possible Destinations: ATL, CIN, NE, PHI, ARI
24) Sergio Kindle—OLB/Texas
Impressive Combine: (4.65) – 40 time, (9’10″) – Broad jump, (4.53) – Shuttle
Possible Destinations: ATL, NE, PHI, ARI, DAL
25) Jermaine Gresham—TE/Oklahoma
Impressive Combine: (4.66) – 40 time, (36.5) – Vert jump, (4.53) – Shuttle
Possible Destinations: CIN, NE, BAL
26) Kyle Wilson—CB/Boise State
Impressive Combine: (4.43) – 40 time
Possible Destinations: PIT, ATL, HOU, NE, BAL
27) Jared Odrick—DT/Penn State
Impressive Combine: (5.03) – 40 time, (4.59) – Shuttle
Possible Destinations: NYG, HOU, SD, IND, NO
28) Golden Tate—WR/Notre Dame
Impressive Combine: (4.42) – 40 time, (10’00″) – Broad jump, (4.34) – Shuttle
Possible Destinations: SF, HOU, NE, PHI, DAL
29) Daryl Washington—OLB/Texas Christian
Impressive Combine: (4.58) – 40 time, (31) – Vert jump
Possible Destinations: CIN, PHI, ARI, DAL, MIN, IND
30) Jerry Hughes—OLB/Texas Christian
Impressive Combine: (34.5) – Vert jump, (4.15) – Shuttle
Possible Destinations: PHI, ARI, DAL, MIN, IND, NO
31) Bruce Campbell—OT/Maryland
Impressive Combine: (4.75) – 40 time, (34) – Bench reps, (4.69) – Shuttle
Possible Destinations: HOU, GB, PHI, ARI, IND
32) Everson Griffen—DE/Southern California
Impressive Combine: (4.65) – 40 time, (32) – Bench reps
Possible Destinations: ATL, NE, ARI
Honorable Mention: Non-First Round Prospects…that could be
This is a list of players who are not considered first round picks, but who (I think) has the talent and potential to be
- Brandon LaFell—WR/Louisiana State
- Jonathan Dwyer—RB/Georgia Tech
- Dexter McCluster—RB/Mississippi
- Jimmy Graham—TE/Miami (Fl.)
- Eric Norwood—OLB/South Carolina
- Jordan Shipley—WR/Texas
- Ben Tate—RB/Auburn
- Thaddeus Gibson—OLB/Ohio State
- Aaron Hernandez—TE/Florida
- Marshawn Gilyard—WR/Cincinnati
- Brandon Spikes—ILB/Florida
- Joe McKnight—RB/Southern California
- Major Wright—S/Florida
- Roddrick Muckelroy—OLB/Texas
- Toby Gerhart—RB/Stanford
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
After posting my initial wide receiver rankings for the 2010 fantasy football season, there was a lot of feedback from fellow owners in my fantasy leagues that Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald was ranked far too low at 11th.
Subsequently, my one-man mock draft came out and it had Fitzgerald being selected with the 12th pick in the third round. Since it was only a three round mock, he was the last player chosen.
More negative feedback followed although some of it did admit that at least my reasoning made a little sense, a backhanded compliment to be sure.
Let’s examine the case that was made for moving Fitzgerald down the wide receiver rankings.
The wide receiver ranking article commented that:
Talent wise, he is definitely higher. Rankings wise, you have to move him down based on the departures of Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin .
The mock draft article commented that:
He’s a bargain at this spot but hard to move up given the doubts about Matt Leinart’s ability to produce at quarterback. [Fitz] had the 15th most receiving yards in the league in 2009 but was the fourth ranked fantasy wide receiver courtesy of his 13 touchdowns.
Here are Fitzgerald’s statistics over the last three years with Warner largely at the helm of a potent Cardinals offense:
| Receiving | Fantasy | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Team | G | GS | Target | Rec | Yard | Avg | TD | FPts | FPts/G |
| 2007 | ARI | 15 | 14 | 167 | 101 | 1,412 | 14.0 | 10 | 201.2 | 13.4 |
| 2008 | ARI | 16 | 16 | 154 | 96 | 1,434 | 14.9 | 12 | 215.4 | 13.5 |
| 2009 | ARI | 16 | 16 | 153 | 97 | 1,092 | 11.3 | 13 | 187.2 | 11.7 |
In examining Fitzgerald’s performance in 2009, it’s clear that his fantasy production was largely based on the number of touchdowns he scored. His average yards per reception suffered because defenses played a lot of cover two against the Cardinals. Opponents feared the team’s passing attack, not its ability to run the ball.
Looking forward to 2010, with Boldin now in Baltimore, defenses will likely commit more to stopping the running back tandem of the emerging Chris Wells and Tim Hightower . However, with Steve Breaston not worthy of as much attention as Boldin, Fitzgerald will likely be double covered on almost every play.
Talented wide receivers are able to beat coverage but it is more difficult for them to get open and they need an accurate passer to get them the ball. With Warner at the controls, Fitzgerald had an accurate passer, but Leinart has not yet proven able to match Warner’s accuracy and is unlikely to develop to that level in 2010.
In his four years in the league, Leinart compiled a completion rate of 57.1 percent. Last year, in 77 attempts, he completed 66.2 percent of his passes, but his yards per attempt was a lowly 5.6, indicating that he was throwing a high number of short and intermediate passes.
Warner’s career completion percentage was 65.7 percent and his yards per attempt was 7.8.
Although some fantasy enthusiasts may have taken solace in Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt recently proclaiming that Leinart was the team’s starting quarterback, it’s worth noting that a week prior to this proclamation he had remarked that Leinart would be anointed the starter once he goes to three Pro Bowls and wins the Super Bowl.
More likely than not, Whisenhunt was sending a statement to Leinart, the recently signed Derek Anderson and the team about the anticipated depth chart. Still, the earlier comment by the head coach does give us a lot of confidence in Leinart as the projected starter.
Over the last three years, the Cardinals offense scored 41, 45 and, 43 touchdowns. With Leinart at the controls, it’s easy to predict that the Cardinals will score less. With the team now likely to shift to more of a ground based attack, it’s also easy to predict that a higher percentage of their offensive touchdowns will come on the ground.
Fantasy football success is based on drafting for value and the value equation includes a risk component. With Warner at the controls leading a passing based attack, Fitzgerald was a high reward, low risk option.
With Leinart at the controls of a more ground based attack, Fitzgerald will still produce but his upside is less and he is a far riskier option in 2010. For that reason, he’s currently my 11th ranked wide receiver for fantasy purposes, behind receivers with much more established quarterbacks, such as Greg Jennings (ranked ninth) and Marques Colston (10th).
Dave Stringer is the head fantasy football contributor at DraftBuddy.com , home of the popular Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy custom cheatsheet and draft tracking tool.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
It’s never too early to start planning ahead for the 2010 fantasy football season. My quarterback rankings came first, and now it is time for the running backs.
These rankings are based on my preliminary—and not yet released—2010 projections, which haven’t been scrubbed for off the field issues and consistency factors. Plus, some players are still bound to change teams via trade, release or inability to agree on a contract with their current club. The rankings are sure to change many times between now and September.
Still, it is great to be thinking and giving my opinion about football. I’m sure there will be lots of discussion right off the top of most RB rankings this year as there is no clear cut consensus on the No. 1 selection.
For me, Adrian Peterson of the Vikings gets the nod for top spot, followed by Maurice Jones-Drew ahead of Chris Johnson.
Peterson is a more powerful runner and has managed to stay healthy during his three seasons in the league. He improved dramatically as a receiver in 2009, and he’s the running back most likely to hit the 16-18 touchdown range.
Let the quibbling begin.
I haven’t ranked veteran runners such as LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook because we don’t know where they will be in 2010. Realistically, they are going to be in time shares or backup roles. The same logic applies to rookies so they haven’t been included yet.
Also, with Tomlinson off the roster in San Diego and Darren Sproles not suited for the feature role, these rankings do not include as yet unknown feature back in San Diego next year.
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN—Bit of a disappointment in 2009 but still the best bet to land at the top of the RB rankings in 2010.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC—Big numbers last year despite a lack of talent around him.
3. Chris Johnson, TEN—Most will have him higher, but he’s here due to concerns about the dual effects of his overuse in 2009 and his stature.
4. Ray Rice, BAL—No reason why he can’t duplicate his breakout performance from last year.
5. Frank Gore, SF—There’s a lot of young skill position talent in San Francisco. If Alex Smith is decent at quarterback and the O-line is replenished, Gore will be dynamite.
6. Steven Jackson, STL—The Rams offense can’t be any worse. SJax was huge last year despite his weak supporting cast and a back injury that slowed him down.
7. Michael Turner, ATL—Injuries are the only thing that are going to slow down
Turner, but his lack of receiving ability keeps him out of the top five.
8. DeAngelo Williams, CAR—Injuries held him back in 2009; otherwise, he would have been in the top 10 for the second year in a row.
9. Ryan Grant, GB—Grant isn’t flashy, but he’s the undisputed lead back on one of the league’s most explosive offenses.
10. Knowshon Moreno, DEN—Solid but not spectacular as a rookie. Bet on an increased workload propelling him near the top 10 in 2010.
11. Chris Wells, ARI—Kurt Warner is gone, so the Cardinals are going to run more next year. Wells is clearly a more talented back than Tim Hightower. Sometimes it’s that simple.
12. Jonathan Stewart, CAR—There’s no reason why the Panthers won’t have two 1,000 yard backs again in 2010.
13. Cedric Benson, CIN—Undisputed lead back in an offense based heavily on the run. His hard running style makes him susceptible to injury or else he would be in the top 10.
14. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT—Put up solid numbers after taking over for Willie Parker last year but never looked all that impressive.
15. Fred Jackson, BUF—Bills figure to move Jackson ahead of Marshawn Lynch. Fred finished 17th in the rankings last year so there’s no reason to move him down.
16. Pierre Thomas, NO—Lead back on an offense returning all of its key pieces. Committee backfield keeps him around the 18th position he finished in last year, but he has huge upsides.
17. Matt Forte, CHI—He’s not overly talented, but he has receiving ability, a prerequisite for a back in a Mike Martz offense. Injuries and a poor O-line held him back in 2009. He was just outside my top 10 until the Chester Taylor signing.
18. Shonn Greene, NYJ—Came on strong at the end of last season and in the playoffs. Greene represents major upside with the release of Thomas Jones.
19. Kevin Smith, DET—Bit of a sophomore slump coupled with a knee injury last year that could hold him back early in 2010. Lions have young, talented playmakers on offense.
20. Ricky Williams, MIA—The Dolphins run it a lot. Williams looked fantastic last year, and Ronnie Brown is coming off an injury (again). What’s not to like.
21. Joseph Addai, IND—Snuck into the top 10 last year, courtesy of his 13 TDs and rookie Donald Brown missing five games. Look for Addai’s role to decrease in 2010.
22. Jamaal Charles, KC—He was a monster for eight games last year, partly because of his receiving ability. He was in the top 10 until the team signed Thomas Jones, who will eat into the goal line work and likely get 10-12 carries a game.
23. Ronnie Brown, MIA—He’s missed an average of four games a year over his five-year career and has only one 1,000 yard season. Just giving you the facts.
24. LeSean McCoy, PHI—Brian Westbrook is gone, and McCoy takes over full time. McCoy could land higher, but Leonard Weaver figures to get the goal line work.
25. Jerome Harrison, CLE—Most will rank him higher, but the bottom line is that he did nothing for three years, and 89 of his 150 fantasy points came in three games against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Jaguars.
26. Brandon Jacobs, NYG—Huge letdown in 2009 courtesy of a knee injury that wasn’t disclosed until after the season. That doesn’t change the fact that he’s always out with injuries or having to play through them.
27. Cadillac Williams, TB—Bucs offense can’t be as bad as it was last year, but a young O-line should improve, especially if guard Aaron Sears returns.
28. Felix Jones, DAL—Bank on a bigger role for Jones in 2010, but unless he gets more goal line work, it’s difficult to move him higher.
29. Marion Barber, DAL—Expect fewer yards from Barber, but a similar TD total in 2010.
30. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG—Put up solid numbers with an increased workload in 2009. Key question is whether that workload was the result of Jacobs’ injury or Bradshaw’s effectiveness?
31. Darren Sproles, SD—Coming off a career year with 840 total yards and seven TDs. In my opinion, this is pretty much his upside, save for a few more yards.
32. Justin Forsett, SEA—He’s the No. 1 guy in Seattle until the draft. Check back after that.
33. Michael Bush, OAK—He’s been Oakland’s healthiest and most effective running back over the past two seasons. Presumably the Raiders will eventually figure that out.
34. Reggie Bush, NO—It looks like the Saints want him back. On the plus side, he equalled a career high in TDs last year. On the down side, his touches have declined three straight years, hitting 117 last year.
35. Clinton Portis, WAS—New head coach Mike Shanahan’s teams have a history of running the ball successfully. Although Portis wasn’t great last year before being injured, he wasn’t as bad as advertised.
36. Thomas Jones, KC—Coming off two top 10 fantasy seasons, he’s going to eat into Charles’ workload in K.C.
37. Arian Foster, HOU—Let’s assume Foster gets the running downs and goal line carries in Houston next year. The draft may dictate otherwise.
38. Steve Slaton, HOU—He ran horribly last year, but did you know he was the 31st ranked RB playing in only 11 games? Hard to move him lower than this.
39. Donald Brown, IND—Look for an increased role for Brown in his second year. He’s projected here but has major upsides.
40. Darren McFadden, OAK—Basically, the Raiders offense is in shambles. In two years, McFadden has done nothing to prove that he’s a feature back.
41. Tim Hightower, ARI—Highly productive first two years in the league but is likely relegated to a backup and pass catching role in 2010. Wells seems too powerful to not get the goal line work.
42. Chester Taylor, CHI—He’s here based on the assumption he backs up Forte, but he moves up significantly if he wins the job and is just outside the top 30 if he gets the goal line work.
43. Willis McGahee, BAL—Somewhat surprisingly, the Ravens wanted him back this year. Note that 113 of his 146 fantasy points came in five games.
44. Laurence Maroney, NE—Surprisingly solid season in 2009 but fell into the doghouse at the end of the year. He might not be back in New England.
45. Julius Jones, SEA—What is there to say? He’s never fulfilled the promise he showed as a rookie six long years ago.
46. Sammy Morris, NE—The Pats like him. So he’ll be back, score a few fantasy points and almost certainly sit on someone’s bench. Why bother?
47. Leonard Weaver, PHI—With Westbrook gone, Weaver is likely in line to get the goal line work and some carries as McCoy’s backup.
48. Mike Bell, NO—Great change-of-pace back for the Saints. Look for another 600 yard, five to six TDs season if they bring him back.
49. Correll Buckhalter, DEN—Moreno’s in line for more work, but Buckhalter has proven to be effective in a backup role.
50. Marshawn Lynch, BUF—No surprise if he’s elsewhere in 2010. Major shocker if he opens the season as Buffalo’s starter.
51. Derrick Ward, TB—A bust in 2009, he will be relegated to backup role in Tampa next year.
52. Kevin Faulk, NE—See Sammy Morris above.
53. Leon Washington, NYJ—His injury was a bad one, so expect his upside and touches to be limited for now.
54. Bernard Scott, CIN—Showed some promise as a rookie, but workhorse Benson will restrict Scott’s carries unless injuries strike.
55. Jason Snelling, ATL—Looked good last year with Turner and Jerious Norwood suffering injuries, but he likely earns very limited touches if both are healthy in 2010.
56. Jerious Norwood, ATL—With Snelling’s emergence, he could be attractive trade bait and end up elsewhere next year.
57. Maurice Morris, DET—If Kevin Smith isn’t ready to open the season, Morris may be a useful flex play.
58. Brandon Jackso, GB—Injury prone backup is an effective receiver but has no chance to usurp Grant given his poor running ability.
59. Mewelde Moore, PIT—Surprisingly productive when given an opportunity.
Dave Stringer is the head fantasy football contributor at DraftBuddy.com , home of the popular Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy custom cheatsheet and draft tracking tool.
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