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There is a giant figure of a bull on Wall Street.
Now, there is a new bull in town, and his name is Jason Pierre-Paul. The New York Giants went bullish on the former University of South Florida player, taking him with the 15th overall pick in the first round of the NFL draft Thursday night.
It marked history for USF. Pierre-Paul becomes the earliest ever draft pick from the University. And his rise from tiny Fort Scott Community College to USF to the Big Apple itself is a meteoric rise that only a city like New York can appreciate.
The Giants selected him based on his incredible athletic talent, his 6’5″, 270-pound size, and his ability to rush the passer.
Pierre-Paul played only one season of Division-I college football and wasn’t even a starter for USF when the season began, but quickly made his mark when college scouts watched his performance in USF’s 17-7 victory against Florida State in Tallahassee last fall.
He was projected to go anywhere from the middle to later picks in the first round. His selection in the 15th slot put him 10 higher than former USF cornerback Mike Jenkins, who was selected 25th in the 2008 draft by the Dallas Cowboys.
It marks the end of one journey for Pierre-Paul and the beginning of a new one.
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So, the NFL schedule is out and the mad rush to predict the future is on.
I personally think these April predictions border on the absurd. So much will change between now and the first week of the regular season. Not to mention that there is no real continuity any more. Yesterday’s thoroughbred is today’s nag and vice versa.
None of that, however, will stop me from throwing my hat into the prediction ring. I can be as ridiculous as the next guy. So, here I go with my very own formula for building an NFC East crystal ball and staring the future fearlessly in the face.
My formula for determining the strength of schedule for each of the three teams goes like so:
- I took the opponent’s record from 2009 and used their winning percentage as a base. If an opponent was, say 8-8, then the base would be .500. An opponent who was 12-4 a year ago gets a base of .750.
- I then add 10 percent if the game is played at the opponent’s place. I subtract 10 percent if it is a home game for the team in question. So, that .500 opponent will be .550 if it is an away game and .450 if it is at home.
- Finally, I strike an average of the team’s sixteen opponents and that becomes the strength of schedule for that team.
This year, the NFC East has drawn a tough assignment in inter-divisional play. They are paired with the NFC North and the AFC South. So, the beasts from the East will run into a few buzz saws from places like Indianapolis, Minnesota, and Green Bay. They will also face some tough customers in the likes of the Texans, Bears, Titans, and Jaguars.
The only real patsy in the bunch is the Detroit Lions, everyone’s favorite whipping post.
DALLAS COWBOYS
In addition to the six divisional games and the eight games in divisional match-up play, the Cowboys will play host to last year’s Super Bowl champs, the New Orleans Saints and will visit the NFC West champions from a year ago, the Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys have the third most difficult schedule in the entire league in 2010.
I have their 2010 strength of schedule at .571.
I have penciled the Cowboys in for five road losses: at Philadelphia, New York, Green Bay, Minnesota and Indianapolis. I have them perfect at home, thus finishing 11 – 5, the same record they had in 2009.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Eagles finished 11-5 as well last year, but their defensive breakdowns in the late going and the change from Donovan McNabb to the mostly untested Kevin Kolb.
I anticipate a bit of a rebuilding year for Andy Reid’s squad. The Eagles do get the Packers, Vikings, and Colts at home, but that advantage may not be enough to lift them into playoff contention. They will also face the 49ers in San Francisco and the Falcons at home, both tough draws.
The Eagles strength of schedule checks in at .567, and the crystal ball reveals the Eagles are headed for an 8-8 finish, missing the playoffs.
NEW YORK GIANTS
The New York Giants were a grave disappointment to their fans a year ago. 2010 may not offer citizens of the Big Apple much more in the way of hope. Tom Coughlin’s dour, no-nonsense approach to coaching is a fine thing when things are going well. He may grind on some nerves if the season goes into a tailspin.
The Giants have to travel to Indianapolis, Houston, Minnesota, and Green Bay. That may prove to be Murderer’s Row for the G-Men. Their strength of schedule is .535, thanks largely to the fact that they get the Panthers at home and the Seahawks in Seattle.
The Giants will finish 8-8 and wait for another time to compete for a Super Bowl.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Hail to the Redskins! They have solved their quarterback quandary for the moment and have placed the future of their franchise into the capable hands of Mike Shanahan. They are on the right track.
The ‘Skins, however, have a ways to go before they threaten for the division, let alone anything more glorious. With a schedule strength of .531, this 4-12 team from a year ago will make some progress, but will not make .500.
Thanks to the soft draws of the Rams in St. Louis and the Buccaneers at home, they will pick up a couple of wins more than they had a year ago, finishing 6-10 with hope for the future.
My conclusion? The Cowboys win their second division in a row and challenge to be the first team in history to play a home game in the Super Bowl, while the rest of the NFC East get their legs under them, but fail to make the playoffs.
You can see my Strength of Schedule and Prediction Chart here . I welcome your feedback, criticisms, remarks, and admission of my genius.
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ESPN ‘s Johnette Howard started out her recent article, titled “New England Patriots’ reign is over: Santonio Holmes traded makes it official—the Jets are the new kings of the AFC East”, on ESPN New York with the following sentence: “Good night, New England. It was a nice run while it lasted, right?”
The title enough makes me laugh a couple times. Obviously she forgot that Holmes is going to miss four games this season after being suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.
I thought that the football season starts in September and ends in January. Did I pull a Rip Van Winkle and miss an entire season, because I thought the Patriots were the reigning AFC East Champs. When did we start giving away championships in April?
She then proceeded to talk about the numerous accolades that the Patriots have complied during the past decade. “Tom Brady likely got a Hall of Fame plaque and got Gisele Bundchen. Bill Belichick cemented his genius label and perfected the dead-fish handshake. The Patriots got a few championships. But it’s over now. Done. Thanks for the memories. What the Giants started with their Super Bowl XLII upset of the Patriots’ 18-0 team, another New York club—the Jets—is about to finish.”
“I never came here to kiss Bill Belichick’s rings, I came here to win, let’s put it that way….I’m certainly not intimidated by New England or anybody else.” This was Rex Ryan’s rallying cry last season during the Jets’ 9-7 season. Yes, not 12-4, or 13-3. They went 9-7.
Let’s also not forgot that the newly appointed saint of Jets football had about the best luck a coach and team could ever have at the end of the season. Ryan declared, “We’re obviously out of the playoffs, and that’s unfortunate.” Not for me. Good thing he’s a football coach, because his team wasn’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.
After realizing his mistake he stated, “We’re actually in a better situation right now than we were last week at this time. That’s unbelievable,” Ryan told reporters, with spin at its finest. “We’ve got a chance. We’ve got a chance to make the playoffs. Hey, we’re going for it, no doubt.”
He also denied that he ever threw in the towel, telling anyone who would listen, “Throwing in the towel is not who I am.” The Jets then proceeded to play two teams, the Bengals and the Colts, who were resting their players for playoff games, and the Jets qualified for the playoffs.
So, Ms. Howard, if luck is what it takes to win the AFC East then I guess you are right. The Jets are the new kings. If you look at their playoff games, there is no reason to think that the Jets are some kind of powerhouse. They beat the Bengals by 10, the Chargers by three, and lost to the Colts by 13. Which means the point differential in the playoffs for the Jets and their power house defense was zero.
She next turns the focus to the players that are going to join “star player Braylon Edwards.” Yes, you heard correctly. Stone-hands Edwards is now a star in the NFL.
“Highly touted” free agent acquisitions Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie, and LaDainian Tomlinson are supposedly set to deliver the Lombardi Trophy to the Big Apple early in 2011. Let’s take a closer look at these players.
Santonio Holmes
Yes, he has the Super Bowl MVP trophy sitting in his trophy case at home, but he also is the winner of other items too: arrests. He has totaled four since 2006 and has been suspended by the NFL or violating the substance abuse policy.
I just have one question. Holmes had a career year last year, with a Super Bowl winning Pro Bowl quarterback, and went over 1,000 yards just once. How is he going to be any better with Mark Sanchez?
Antonio Cromartie
No one denies that he has the tools to be an elite corner. It’s his head that gets in the way. 2007 was his best year, after totaling 10 interceptions and having a 109-yard return for a touchdown.
However, since then he has totaled five interceptions and called 2009 “his best season ever” after totaling 33 tackles and three interceptions. Did the Jets watch the way he played in the playoffs against them? Obviously not. And they had to advance him $500,000 so he could pay his child support.
LaDainian Tomlinson
I have no ill will against LT. He has been a stand out professional and has been one of the greatest players the league has ever seen. But if he couldn’t win a Super Bowl with San Diego, what makes everyone think he will win one with the Jets?
It looks like the Jets are taking a page out of the Raiders’, Redskins’, and Cowboys’ book: Bring in old players or ones with character issues. I can’t seem to remember how many titles they all have in recent years. It has to be a lot, since the Jets, having followed their plan, are now Super Bowl contenders, too.
She asks the question, “Has Ryan really been here only one season?” Howard then proceeds to give him credit for everything from building a new stadium, finding “a franchise quarterback”, and having a “swaggering, smashmouth, extravagantly talented team.”
The stadium was proposed in 2007, well before Ryan’s stomach made an appearance in NYC. I wouldn’t quite classify San-chize as the franchise quarterback yet. His 2,444 yards, 53.8 completion precentage, 12 TD, 20 INT, and a QB rating of 63.0 don’t exactly qualify for franchise status. I guess swaggering and smashmouth means having multiple players suspended for violating the leagues substance policy.
The final stab she takes at the Patriots is in reference to the extra picks that they have in next week’s draft. She states that there have been “A lot of reminders that Belichick has some extra second-round picks to play with in the draffffffffffft. Sorry. Fell asleep with my finger stuck on the “F” key. Belichick will need those extra picks. Loathe as he or any of the Patriots is to say this, New England is rebuilding now.”
How did the Jets get Sanchez, Revis, Keller, Harris, Mangold, Greene, Smith, or Washington? How about the draffffffffffffffffffft? Sorry, my finger also got stuck on the “F” key.
She then details how the Jets are going to feature a top three or four offense in the league, “if second-year quarterback Mark Sanchez doesn’t muck it up.” Way to have confidence in your “franchise” quarterback.
In closing, I would like to say, let’s wait and see if the Jets finally reach the top of the AFC East. Consider that they last won in 2002, and have four total divison titles since 1960, and haven’t won any in the same decade in ‘68-’69. The Patriots won five in a row from ’03-’07. And by the way the Bills—yes, the Bills—have won 11 division titles.
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Wide Receiver Santonio Holmes has had his fair share of troubles with off the field issues which has led to him getting traded to the New York Jets.
Holmes is getting a fresh start in the Big Apple, which may or not help him correct his issues, but it is a first step in redemption.
There are a handful of other players in the NFL that could also use a fresh start due to any legal troubles, accusations, or other off the field issues that has interfered with the game of football.
The following are the top troublemakers who may get a fresh start and change of venue, whether they like it or not.
A flurry of high-profile moves have already dominated headlines around the NFL at the relative start of free agency.
In the foggy mist of an uncapped season, most fans and commentators are still making sense of the rule adjustments and scenery changes in the league.
However, one expected occurrence has been made blatantly clear: The gap between the haves and the have-nots has certainly widened.
How this affects the AFC West is still somewhat of a mystery, but certain patterns have emerged.
At this point, only a number of small to mid-major transactions have been completed, with talk focusing more on player departures (LaDainian Tomlinson, Brandon Marshall) within the division.
With plenty of time to go, just what are the biggest questions facing Denver, Kansas City, Oakland, and San Diego in the free agency period?
1) Will San Diego “attack” free agency?
Whether it’s been because of an imposed budget conscience or strictly due to philosophy, Chargers president Dean Spanos and general manager A.J. Smith have not been eager to pull the trigger on many big moves in free agency over the past few seasons.
Last season’s biggest acquisition, for instance, was LB Kevin Burnett, a former second-string player for the Dallas Cowboys who was given the chance to start for San Diego in 2009.
Now that we have an idea of who’s leaving southern California, several holes have sprung up in San Diego’s depth chart.
In the past, said holes were tended to in the draft. This year, there might not be enough picks (or talent) to plug the deficiencies on the roster.
A weak and already dwindling RB market already pushed San Diego to tender Darren Sproles, but the Chargers could be shopping for defensive and special teams help, with Jamal Williams and Kassim Osgood gone.
While you shouldn’t expect any blockbuster moves, expect an increased presence in the market from Spanos, Smith and Co.
2) Where will Brandon Marshall end up?
The disgruntled Denver WR will finally get his wish after a drama-heavy ’09 campaign.
It became very clear last season that the Broncos were Josh McDaniels’ team, and thus the talented but controversy-prone, outspoken playmaker will be sent the way of Jay Cutler.
Speaking of which, with Chicago’s blitzkrieg of the market so far, is it possible that Marshall and Cutler could be headed for a Windy City reunion?
Seattle has also emerged as contenders for Marshall’s services, with owner Paul Allen’s deep pockets and T.J. Houshmanzadeh on the other sideline boons morsels in Brandon’s food for thought.
Unlike last season’s debacle though, expect one thing to be certain: Marshall definitely will not be a Denver Bronco in 2010.
3) Where will Nnamdi Asomugha play next season?
The non New York-based members of the AFC East were spared a major blow when it was Antonio Cromartie and not Asomugha heading to the Big Apple via trade.
Even with that possibility nixed, rumors have still swirled around the All-Pro cornerback’s potential destination.
One of the best corners in the league—bar none—teams will be faced with a pretty steep price in order to acquire Asomugha.
A price that the Jets were obviously turned off by when it took them just a third (potentially second) round pick to wrestle Cromartie away from the Chargers.
With Al Davis at the helm, fans are always bracing to expect the unexpected, but unless the right offer comes around, Nnamdi should remain an Oakland Raider this coming fall.
4) Is Jamal Williams a boom or bust signing for Denver?
There’s no questioning the amount of talent for football that former San Diego NT Jamal Williams has in his 350-pound body.
It is also no question that injuries and age have slowed down the former All-Pro to the point of missing 18 games in the past three seasons.
Denver’s outgoing defensive coordinator Mike Nolan set up a 3-4 scheme in Denver, and now the current staff is surely banking to get the 2008 version of Williams, who started all 16 games for the division rival Chargers, than the 2009 model who only played in one.
For years, San Diego anchored its version of the 3-4 around Williams’ massive run-stopping power.
The Broncos already impressed many observers with their stifling defense in 2009 before collapsing late in the season. Is Williams the missing piece to their defensive puzzle?
5) Does the Chiefs re-signing Chris Chambers mean a halt to other WR pursuits?
There was talk of Anquan Boldin becoming a Chief before his eventual trade to Baltimore.
When that possibility was squashed, KC personnel guru Scott Pioli turned to his existing roster and re-upped Chris Chambers to a multi-year deal.
An intriguing possibility might be New Orleans’ Lance Moore, who was tendered with a second-round pick by the defending Super Bowl champions.
The Chiefs hold an extra second-round pick stemming from their trade of Tony Gonzalez to the Falcons last season, and could easily part with it if it means obtaining Moore.
Beyond that, it’s a thin market both in free agency. Perhaps Dez Bryant would be acceptable to Chiefs fans?
6) Is Stephen Jackson to the Chargers a real possibility?
It is definitely a talent-rich draft if you’re low on running backs this year.
And while this label definitely applies to San Diego, the Bolts also hold a relatively low first-round pick (28) and have many other needs (offensive line, defensive line, cornerback, safety).
The Chargers might be turned on by Jackson’s obvious talent, but they might equally be turned off by what St. Louis might ask in return.
Also, this year’s market features other solid backs like Cadillac Williams and LenDale White, who fit the mold of physical backs who could succeed behind San Diego’s underwhelming offensive line.
This, however, could be a major draft-day move should top RB prospects be gone by the time San Diego’s on the clock.
7) Will Oakland shop for a quarterback?
To be honest, there’s not much out there in the QB market.
It’s clear to everyone except Al Davis that JaMarcus Russell is not the solution and the rest of Oakland’s depth chart isn’t too impressive, either.
There’s no way anyone gives up a first-round pick for Jason Campbell, and while Oakland fared well with a former Cleveland QB this season (Bruce Gradkowski), chances of Derek Anderson arriving in the Bay Area are slim.
Al Davis values veteran leadership, so there’s a chance a guy like Jake Delhomme or Rex Grossman to get a shot at a backup role.
Then again, the last time Davis brought a veteran QB in (Jeff Garcia), things got ugly fast.
Is the Darren Sproles sign-and-trade deal still a possibility?
It becomes increasingly apparent that San Diego brass don’t know what they want to do with Darren Sproles.
San Diego needs to hold on to any semblance of running backs on its depth chart, and Sproles is an excellent return man/backfield receiver, but he is far from a full-time, front-line back.
As mentioned before, San Diego is dealing with a lot of holes going into next season. Sproles continues to be a luxury at this point for the Chargers more so than a necessity.
Should a team be willing to offer up something useful to San Diego, say, offensive or defensive line help, it should be no surprise to anyone to see Sproles in a different uniform next season.
9) How will Kansas City continue to approach the market?
The Chiefs are a young team undergoing a rebuilding process in the way of new front-office and head coaching philosophies.
They have some good talent in place at the right positions, but still lack depth and a couple of game breakers on each side of the ball.
It’s clear they have some money and that, under Pioli, are willing to make a big splash (i.e. trading Tony Gonzalez last season) in order to get better.
However, most of the big fish are spoken for at this point and they have too many holes to plug using solely the draft.
At this point, it looks as if they’re content with filling their roster with the Thomas Jones’ of the world.
10) Will the Broncos shop for offensive help?
Again, Brandon Marshall will most likely be out of Denver in the coming weeks. Kyle Orton showed to be effective over stretches of the 2009 campaign, and Knowshon Moreno appears to be talented enough to blossom into a top back, but will that be enough?
With Marshall gone, teams will be able to zero in on Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler in the passing game.
Denver’s emphasis in free agency so far has been defense, but there is no reason to suspect that, for head coach Josh McDaniels, addition might come in the way of subtraction in the Marshall situation.
Expect a couple of fringe signings at the very least, a major upgrade via the draft, or a trade involving Marshall that sees some pieces go Denver’s way.
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