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It’s never too early to start planning ahead for the 2010 fantasy football season. My quarterback rankings came first, and now it is time for the running backs.
These rankings are based on my preliminary—and not yet released—2010 projections, which haven’t been scrubbed for off the field issues and consistency factors. Plus, some players are still bound to change teams via trade, release or inability to agree on a contract with their current club. The rankings are sure to change many times between now and September.
Still, it is great to be thinking and giving my opinion about football. I’m sure there will be lots of discussion right off the top of most RB rankings this year as there is no clear cut consensus on the No. 1 selection.
For me, Adrian Peterson of the Vikings gets the nod for top spot, followed by Maurice Jones-Drew ahead of Chris Johnson.
Peterson is a more powerful runner and has managed to stay healthy during his three seasons in the league. He improved dramatically as a receiver in 2009, and he’s the running back most likely to hit the 16-18 touchdown range.
Let the quibbling begin.
I haven’t ranked veteran runners such as LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook because we don’t know where they will be in 2010. Realistically, they are going to be in time shares or backup roles. The same logic applies to rookies so they haven’t been included yet.
Also, with Tomlinson off the roster in San Diego and Darren Sproles not suited for the feature role, these rankings do not include as yet unknown feature back in San Diego next year.
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN—Bit of a disappointment in 2009 but still the best bet to land at the top of the RB rankings in 2010.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC—Big numbers last year despite a lack of talent around him.
3. Chris Johnson, TEN—Most will have him higher, but he’s here due to concerns about the dual effects of his overuse in 2009 and his stature.
4. Ray Rice, BAL—No reason why he can’t duplicate his breakout performance from last year.
5. Frank Gore, SF—There’s a lot of young skill position talent in San Francisco. If Alex Smith is decent at quarterback and the O-line is replenished, Gore will be dynamite.
6. Steven Jackson, STL—The Rams offense can’t be any worse. SJax was huge last year despite his weak supporting cast and a back injury that slowed him down.
7. Michael Turner, ATL—Injuries are the only thing that are going to slow down
Turner, but his lack of receiving ability keeps him out of the top five.
8. DeAngelo Williams, CAR—Injuries held him back in 2009; otherwise, he would have been in the top 10 for the second year in a row.
9. Ryan Grant, GB—Grant isn’t flashy, but he’s the undisputed lead back on one of the league’s most explosive offenses.
10. Knowshon Moreno, DEN—Solid but not spectacular as a rookie. Bet on an increased workload propelling him near the top 10 in 2010.
11. Chris Wells, ARI—Kurt Warner is gone, so the Cardinals are going to run more next year. Wells is clearly a more talented back than Tim Hightower. Sometimes it’s that simple.
12. Jonathan Stewart, CAR—There’s no reason why the Panthers won’t have two 1,000 yard backs again in 2010.
13. Cedric Benson, CIN—Undisputed lead back in an offense based heavily on the run. His hard running style makes him susceptible to injury or else he would be in the top 10.
14. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT—Put up solid numbers after taking over for Willie Parker last year but never looked all that impressive.
15. Fred Jackson, BUF—Bills figure to move Jackson ahead of Marshawn Lynch. Fred finished 17th in the rankings last year so there’s no reason to move him down.
16. Pierre Thomas, NO—Lead back on an offense returning all of its key pieces. Committee backfield keeps him around the 18th position he finished in last year, but he has huge upsides.
17. Matt Forte, CHI—He’s not overly talented, but he has receiving ability, a prerequisite for a back in a Mike Martz offense. Injuries and a poor O-line held him back in 2009. He was just outside my top 10 until the Chester Taylor signing.
18. Shonn Greene, NYJ—Came on strong at the end of last season and in the playoffs. Greene represents major upside with the release of Thomas Jones.
19. Kevin Smith, DET—Bit of a sophomore slump coupled with a knee injury last year that could hold him back early in 2010. Lions have young, talented playmakers on offense.
20. Ricky Williams, MIA—The Dolphins run it a lot. Williams looked fantastic last year, and Ronnie Brown is coming off an injury (again). What’s not to like.
21. Joseph Addai, IND—Snuck into the top 10 last year, courtesy of his 13 TDs and rookie Donald Brown missing five games. Look for Addai’s role to decrease in 2010.
22. Jamaal Charles, KC—He was a monster for eight games last year, partly because of his receiving ability. He was in the top 10 until the team signed Thomas Jones, who will eat into the goal line work and likely get 10-12 carries a game.
23. Ronnie Brown, MIA—He’s missed an average of four games a year over his five-year career and has only one 1,000 yard season. Just giving you the facts.
24. LeSean McCoy, PHI—Brian Westbrook is gone, and McCoy takes over full time. McCoy could land higher, but Leonard Weaver figures to get the goal line work.
25. Jerome Harrison, CLE—Most will rank him higher, but the bottom line is that he did nothing for three years, and 89 of his 150 fantasy points came in three games against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Jaguars.
26. Brandon Jacobs, NYG—Huge letdown in 2009 courtesy of a knee injury that wasn’t disclosed until after the season. That doesn’t change the fact that he’s always out with injuries or having to play through them.
27. Cadillac Williams, TB—Bucs offense can’t be as bad as it was last year, but a young O-line should improve, especially if guard Aaron Sears returns.
28. Felix Jones, DAL—Bank on a bigger role for Jones in 2010, but unless he gets more goal line work, it’s difficult to move him higher.
29. Marion Barber, DAL—Expect fewer yards from Barber, but a similar TD total in 2010.
30. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG—Put up solid numbers with an increased workload in 2009. Key question is whether that workload was the result of Jacobs’ injury or Bradshaw’s effectiveness?
31. Darren Sproles, SD—Coming off a career year with 840 total yards and seven TDs. In my opinion, this is pretty much his upside, save for a few more yards.
32. Justin Forsett, SEA—He’s the No. 1 guy in Seattle until the draft. Check back after that.
33. Michael Bush, OAK—He’s been Oakland’s healthiest and most effective running back over the past two seasons. Presumably the Raiders will eventually figure that out.
34. Reggie Bush, NO—It looks like the Saints want him back. On the plus side, he equalled a career high in TDs last year. On the down side, his touches have declined three straight years, hitting 117 last year.
35. Clinton Portis, WAS—New head coach Mike Shanahan’s teams have a history of running the ball successfully. Although Portis wasn’t great last year before being injured, he wasn’t as bad as advertised.
36. Thomas Jones, KC—Coming off two top 10 fantasy seasons, he’s going to eat into Charles’ workload in K.C.
37. Arian Foster, HOU—Let’s assume Foster gets the running downs and goal line carries in Houston next year. The draft may dictate otherwise.
38. Steve Slaton, HOU—He ran horribly last year, but did you know he was the 31st ranked RB playing in only 11 games? Hard to move him lower than this.
39. Donald Brown, IND—Look for an increased role for Brown in his second year. He’s projected here but has major upsides.
40. Darren McFadden, OAK—Basically, the Raiders offense is in shambles. In two years, McFadden has done nothing to prove that he’s a feature back.
41. Tim Hightower, ARI—Highly productive first two years in the league but is likely relegated to a backup and pass catching role in 2010. Wells seems too powerful to not get the goal line work.
42. Chester Taylor, CHI—He’s here based on the assumption he backs up Forte, but he moves up significantly if he wins the job and is just outside the top 30 if he gets the goal line work.
43. Willis McGahee, BAL—Somewhat surprisingly, the Ravens wanted him back this year. Note that 113 of his 146 fantasy points came in five games.
44. Laurence Maroney, NE—Surprisingly solid season in 2009 but fell into the doghouse at the end of the year. He might not be back in New England.
45. Julius Jones, SEA—What is there to say? He’s never fulfilled the promise he showed as a rookie six long years ago.
46. Sammy Morris, NE—The Pats like him. So he’ll be back, score a few fantasy points and almost certainly sit on someone’s bench. Why bother?
47. Leonard Weaver, PHI—With Westbrook gone, Weaver is likely in line to get the goal line work and some carries as McCoy’s backup.
48. Mike Bell, NO—Great change-of-pace back for the Saints. Look for another 600 yard, five to six TDs season if they bring him back.
49. Correll Buckhalter, DEN—Moreno’s in line for more work, but Buckhalter has proven to be effective in a backup role.
50. Marshawn Lynch, BUF—No surprise if he’s elsewhere in 2010. Major shocker if he opens the season as Buffalo’s starter.
51. Derrick Ward, TB—A bust in 2009, he will be relegated to backup role in Tampa next year.
52. Kevin Faulk, NE—See Sammy Morris above.
53. Leon Washington, NYJ—His injury was a bad one, so expect his upside and touches to be limited for now.
54. Bernard Scott, CIN—Showed some promise as a rookie, but workhorse Benson will restrict Scott’s carries unless injuries strike.
55. Jason Snelling, ATL—Looked good last year with Turner and Jerious Norwood suffering injuries, but he likely earns very limited touches if both are healthy in 2010.
56. Jerious Norwood, ATL—With Snelling’s emergence, he could be attractive trade bait and end up elsewhere next year.
57. Maurice Morris, DET—If Kevin Smith isn’t ready to open the season, Morris may be a useful flex play.
58. Brandon Jackso, GB—Injury prone backup is an effective receiver but has no chance to usurp Grant given his poor running ability.
59. Mewelde Moore, PIT—Surprisingly productive when given an opportunity.
Dave Stringer is the head fantasy football contributor at DraftBuddy.com , home of the popular Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy custom cheatsheet and draft tracking tool.
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Yeah, I know. The headline is a major newsflash, huh? If you’re a follower of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you know this already.
So get the visions of Julius Peppers terrorizing quarterbacks in the pewter and red out of your noggin. Forget Karlos Dansby providing the much needed leadership in the Buccaneers linebacking core. Don’t even think about Vince Wilfork plugging that big ole hole in the middle of the Buccaneers defensive line.
It’s not going to happen, folks.
Unless the Buccaneers are putting up the mother of all smokescreens, Tampa Bay is not going to be a big time player in free agency.
Will they sign some guys? Certainly, but you’re talking Jimmy Wilkerson types. Guys like Stylz White who come in on “prove it” contracts that require little to no signing bonus or guaranteed money.
This economic reality won’t prevent the Bucs from trying to find some answers in the veteran meat market.
We know the Bucs need a veteran backup quarterback, and Chad Pennington would be a perfect fit. Yet, his price tag is likely way too high, even coming off a major injury. A more likely guy the Bucs might have their eye on is someone like Mark Bulger, who, if released by the Rams, could be reunited with his old QB coach Greg Olsen, the Bucs’ offensive coordinator.
Rex Grossman—yes, that one—could be another option to provide a veteran backup behind Josh Freeman.
With guard Aaron Sears a question mark, Jeremy Zuttah not strong enough in the running game, and Jeremy Trueblood a walking false start and personal foul, the Bucs could use some help along the offensive line.
Again, thanks to the new rules in the uncapped year, there’s not much to choose from. Older veterans Tra Thomas and Orlando Pace aren’t quite what they once were. Guys like Tony Pashos and Rex Hadnot could be bargain buys but are they really that much of an upgrade over current Buccaneers personnel?
The pickings are pretty slim at wide receiver, another need position on offense for Tampa Bay. One guy who has some good production and may not command a huge contract on the open market is Houston’s wide out Kevin Walter. Walter has been solid since coming to the Texans, pulling down 178 passes for 2,310 yards and 14 touchdowns. Bobby Wade, Josh Reed, and former Giants’ Super Bowl hero David Tyree could be options as well.
There’s trade possibilities galore at the position with both Denver’s Brandon Marshall and Arizona’s Anquan Boldin on the block. Both played their “college ball” in the state of Florida and may welcome a return to a no-state tax residence. But both will be seeking new large deals from their new team. The Bucs aren’t spending money, remember?
Free agency’s bell cows are certainly on the defensive side of the ball, with the aforementioned Peppers, Dansby, and Wilfork leading the class.
Joining Peppers and Wilfork on the defensive line are more moderately priced Aaron Kampman, Jason Babin, Adewale Ogunleye, Derrick Burgess, and Kyle Vanden Bosche. According to Pewter Report, the Bucs have had their eye on Kampman for some time and if the price is right he could be one player they target. Gator alum Ian Scott has been a backup with the Bears for a couple seasons but is still relatively young and can play in the Tampa Two hybrid head coach Raheem Morris will be employing.
The Bucs would love competition for their starters at linebacker, and Dansby certainly fits that bill but he will likely be way out the Bucs’ price range. If Gary Brackett hits the free agency scene, he’d definitely be a target for the Buccaneers. Angelo Crowell can play all three positions and wants to return to Tampa Bay. Pisa Tinoisamoa has starting experience and is still young enough to make an impact.
In the secondary, the Buccaneers definitely need some help on the outside. And the good news for Tampa Bay is that a lot of good, still young corners are available. One name that jumps off the page is the Texans’ Dunta Robinson. Robinson was Houston’s franchise player in 2009, but he struggled with no interceptions in 16 games this season, which could potentially bring his asking price down. He would be a little more expensive than the Bucs may be willing to part with, but he would be the perfect replacement for Ronde Barber and an excellent choice to tandem with Aquib Talib.
If Robinson commands too much money, there’s Roderick Hood, Leigh Bodden (a player the Bucs had interest in last season), Gator Keiwan Ratliff, and veteran Ken Lucas.
With the regression of Sabby Piscitelli and the substance abuse issues of Tanard Jackson, safety is a huge concern. Philadelphia’s Sean Jones could be a terrific addition to the safety core. Jones has had an injury-plagued start to his career but still has managed to pull down 16 interceptions and 30 passes defensed in six seasons with the Eagles. With injury concerns, his price tag may be in the Bucs range.
If the Bucs want to go a little older, Kevin Kaesviharn, Ryan Clark, and Mike Brown could provide some much needed leadership similar to the impact Darren Sharper made in New Orleans.
Competition will definitely be brought in for kicker Connor Barth and punter Josh Bidwell. Whether or not it comes from a veteran or rookie, free agency really relies on the price tag. But if the Bucs decide to test the free agent marker looking for a kicker, there are some intriguing choices.
Shayne Graham, Jeff Reed, and Tampa-native Jay Feely all have put together solid careers.
Ageless Mitch Berger and Jeff Feagles are probably too long in the tooth to replace Bidwell.
The Bucs have already gone on record saying their primary focus is on the 2010 NFL Draft. With 10 picks in the first 99, the team may likely choose to forego free agency all together and hope to fill most of their holes in the draft room.
It’s definitely the cheaper route…and that’s music to the Glazers’ ears.
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